The Pentagon has launched a review of the 2021 Aukus submarine cope with the UK and Australia, throwing the safety pact into doubt at a time of heightened tension with China.
The review to find out whether the US should scrap the project is being led by Elbridge Colby, a top defence department official who previously expressed scepticism about Aukus, based on six people aware of the matter.
Ending the submarine and advanced technology development agreement would destroy a pillar of security co-operation between the allies. The review has triggered anxiety in London and Canberra.
While Aukus has received strong support from US lawmakers and experts, some critics say it could undermine the country’s security since the navy is struggling to provide more American submarines because the threat from Beijing is rising.
Australia and Britain are because of co-produce an attack submarine class often known as the SSN-Aukus that may come into service within the early 2040s.
However the US has committed to selling as much as five Virginia class submarines to Australia from 2032 to bridge the gap because it retires its current fleet of vessels.
That commitment would almost definitely lapse if the US pulled out of Aukus.
Last yr, Colby wrote on X that he was sceptical about Aukus and that it “could be crazy” for the US to have fewer nuclear-powered attack submarines, often known as SSNs, within the case of a conflict over Taiwan.
In March, Colby said it might be “great” for Australia to have SSNs but cautioned there was a “very real threat of a conflict in the approaching years” and that US SSNs could be “absolutely essential” to defend Taiwan.
Sceptics of the nuclear technology-sharing pact have also questioned whether the US should help Australia obtain the submarines without an explicit commitment to make use of them in any war with China.
Kurt Campbell, the deputy secretary of state within the Biden administration who was the US architect of Aukus, last yr stressed the importance of Australia having SSNs that might work closely with the US within the case of a war over Taiwan. But Canberra has not publicly linked the necessity for the vessels to a conflict over Taiwan.
The review comes amid mounting anxiety amongst US allies about a number of the Trump administration’s positions. Colby has told the UK and other European allies to focus more on the Euro-Atlantic region and reduce their activity within the Indo-Pacific.
Jeanne Shaheen, the highest Democrat on the Senate foreign relations committee, told the FT that news of the administration backing away from Aukus would “be met with cheers in Beijing, which is already celebrating America’s global pullback and our strained ties with allies under President Trump”.
“Scrapping this partnership would further tarnish America’s popularity and lift more questions amongst our closest defence partners about our reliability,” Shaheen said.
“At a moment once we face mounting threats from China and Russia, we must be encouraging our partners to boost their defence spending and partnering with them on the newest technologies — not doing the other.”
One person aware of the controversy over Aukus said Canberra and London were “incredibly anxious” concerning the Aukus review.
“Aukus is probably the most substantial military and strategic undertaking between the US, Australia and Great Britain in generations,” Campbell told the Financial Times.
“Efforts to extend co-ordination, defence spending and customary ambition must be welcomed. Any bureaucratic effort to undermine Aukus would result in a crisis in confidence amongst our closest security and political partners.”
The Pentagon has pushed Australia to spice up its defence spending. US defence secretary Pete Hegseth this month urged Canberra to boost spending from 2 per cent of GDP to three.5 per cent. In response, Australian prime minister Anthony Albanese said: “We’ll determine our defence policy.”
“Australia’s defence spending has step by step been increasing, however it will not be doing so nearly as fast as other democratic states, nor at a rate sufficient to pay for each Aukus and its existing conventional force,” said Charles Edel, an Australia expert on the CSIS think-tank in Washington.
John Lee, an Australia defence expert on the Hudson Institute, said pressure was increasing on Canberra since the US was specializing in deterring China from invading Taiwan this decade. He added that Australia’s navy could be rapidly weakened if it didn’t increase defence spending to three per cent of GDP.
“That is unacceptable to the Trump administration,” said Lee. “If Australia continues on this trajectory, it’s conceivable if unlikely that the Trump administration will freeze or cancel Pillar 1 of Aukus [the part dealing with submarines] to force Australia to concentrate on increasing its funding of its military over the subsequent five years.”
One person aware of the review said it was unclear if Colby was acting alone or as a part of a wider effort by Trump administration. “Sentiment appears to be that it’s the previous, but the dearth of clarity has confused Congress, other government departments and Australia,” the person said.
A Pentagon spokesperson said the department was reviewing Aukus to be certain that “this initiative of the previous administration is aligned with the president’s ‘America First’ agenda”. He added that Hegseth had “made clear his intent to make sure the [defence] department is concentrated on the Indo-Pacific region in the beginning”.
Several people aware of the matter said the review was slated to take 30 days, however the spokesperson declined to comment on the timing. “Any changes to the administration’s approach for Aukus will probably be communicated through official channels, when appropriate,” he said.
A British government official said the UK was aware of the review. “That is sensible for a brand new administration,” said the official, who noted that the Labour government had also conducted a review of Aukus.
“We now have reiterated the strategic importance of the UK-US relationship, announced additional defence spending and confirmed our commitment to Aukus,” the official added.
The Australian embassy in Washington declined to comment.
