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Some 39 Labour MPs have signalled they may vote against Sir Keir Starmer’s welfare reforms on Tuesday evening in a tense showdown between the prime minister and his backbenchers despite a £2.5bn U-turn that watered down the package last week.
Starmer’s concessions last Thursday led to the withdrawal of a “reasoned amendment” designed to kill the bill — which had the backing of 126 Labour MPs.
But on Monday evening, Labour MPs tabled a second reasoned amendment with the identical intention that quickly garnered 39 signatures from Labour MPs, and a handful from members of other parties.
Rachael Maskell, MP for York Central, said the amendment had been tabled on behalf of deaf and disabled people’s organisations, “giving them a voice on this debate as their agency has not been heard”. She said: “Even loyal MPs who were going to vote for [the government’s reforms] are considering of abstaining.”
That total could rise over the day, with expectations Tuesday might be a day of frantic last-ditch lobbying of undecided MPs in Westminster.
Some 83 Labour MPs who would probably must rebel to defeat the bill if all other parties vote against it, given the federal government’s working majority of 165. The Conservatives, who’ve said the measures don’t go far enough, have said they may vote against the bill.
Ministers still expect to see the largest insurrection of Starmer’s premiership, eclipsing the 16 who opposed the planning and infrastructure bill earlier this month.
Tony Blair’s biggest insurrection in his first 12 months involved 47 backbenchers, based on Philip Cowley, politics professor at Queen Mary University.
Business secretary Jonathan Reynolds defended the bill on Tuesday, saying it was higher “than what we’ve got at present”.
“In the intervening time we’re spending lots of money on outcomes which are just not superb,” he told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme.
Official estimates on Monday showed the revised measures will still push 150,000 people into poverty by restricting access to disability advantages to recent applicants.
Talks are ongoing between government whips and Labour MPs, although further concessions before Tuesday’s vote are unlikely, based on people briefed on the discussions.
Liz Kendall, work and pensions secretary, will begin the talk at lunchtime with a vote expected at about 7pm.
Kendall laid out the federal government’s intentions at the subsequent stage of the bill, including the concessions on Monday, however the proposals still faced heavy criticism from Labour backbenchers, including fears they may create a “two-tier” system with higher support for existing claimants.
Starmer is anticipated to defend the reforms — designed to rein within the ballooning welfare bill while encouraging people back to work — during a cupboard meeting at 9.30am.
The unique package was expected to avoid wasting £4.8bn for taxpayers, but that figure is now more like £2bn after the partial reversal. Chancellor Rachel Reeves will face questions over how she is going to pay for the U-turn when she faces MPs within the House of Commons within the late morning.
The welfare reforms will make it harder for brand new applicants to acquire “personal independence payments” (Pip), the important style of disability profit, although Starmer’s concessions mean the changes won’t affect existing beneficiaries.
Debbie Abrahams, a senior Labour MP, told ITV that she would “implore the federal government to reconsider” ahead of the vote. “We absolutely recognise these are good concessions, but we’re not quite there yet,” she said.