Payton Talbott vs. Felipe Lima prediction, odds, pick for UFC 317

UFC 317: Ilia Topuria versus Charles Oliveira kicks off the foremost card on Saturday with a fight between Payton Talbott and Felipe Lima within the bantamweight division. Check out our UFC odds series for our Talbott-Felipe Lima prediction and pick.

Payton Talbott (9-1) rebounded from his first profession loss, a dominant decision defeat to Raoni Barcelos at UFC 311, by showcasing his ending prowess in previous outings. Before that setback, Talbott rattled off three straight UFC wins by stoppage, including a 19-second knockout of Yanis Ghemmouri. Now, Talbott faces Felipe Lima this Saturday.

Felipe Lima (14-1) enters UFC 317 riding a 14-fight win streak, including two impressive UFC victories. Most recently, Lima dominated Miles Johns with sharp striking and cage control for a unanimous decision, following a third-round submission win over Muhammad Naimov. Now, Lima looks to increase his momentum against Payton Talbott this Saturday.

Listed below are the UFC 317 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings. 

UFC 317 odds: Payton Talbott-Felipe Lima odds

Payton Talbott: +150

Felipe Lima: -180

Over 2.5 rounds: -195

Under 2.5 rounds: +150

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Why Payton Talbott will win

• Last Fight: (L) Raoni Barcelos – DEC
• Last 5: 4-1
• Finishes: 8 (7 KO/TKO/1 SUB)

Payton Talbott has the tools and momentum to defeat Felipe Lima at UFC 317. Talbott’s aggressive striking and knockout power have defined his profession with seven of his nine wins coming by KO. His ability to overwhelm opponents early with volume and precision makes him a relentless threat to complete fights quickly.

Talbott’s relentless pressure and high strike output, he once landed a record-setting 145 strikes in a single fight, can disrupt Lima’s rhythm and stop him from establishing his distance-based striking and grappling game. While Lima is a talented and versatile fighter, Talbott’s pace and power could force Lima into uncomfortable exchanges where Talbott excels.

Given Talbott’s youth, athleticism, and ending instincts, he’s well-positioned to dictate the fight’s tempo and capitalize on any openings. Expect Talbott to push the pace, land heavy shots early, and potentially secure a stoppage or dominant decision over Lima this weekend at UFC 317.

Why Felipe Lima will win

• Last Fight: (W) Miles Johns – DEC
• Last 5: 5-0
• Finishes: 7 (4 KO/TKO/3 SUB)

Felipe Lima has a powerful case to beat Payton Talbott at UFC 317, largely because of his well-rounded skill set and proven ability to handle high-level competition. Lima is riding a 14-fight win streak, including two impressive UFC victories, one by submission and one by dominant decision, showcasing each his grappling and striking abilities.

Lima’s versatility is a key advantage on this matchup. He’s adept at distance management, using a large stance and sharp movement to regulate the range and arrange combos while also possessing dangerous grappling skills that allow him to threaten with submissions and control opponents on the mat.

Against Miles Johns and Muhammad Naimov, Lima demonstrated composure and adaptableness, traits that will likely be crucial against a dynamic striker like Talbott.

Talbott, while explosive and dangerous on the feet, was recently exposed by Raoni Barcelos, who used superior wrestling and control to neutralize Talbott’s offense.

Unless Talbott has made significant improvements in his grappling in only five months’ time, Lima’s ability to combine up his attacks and exploit holes in Talbott’s ground game gives him a transparent path to victory. Expect Lima to make use of his wrestling and submission threat to dictate the fight’s pace and sure secure a call win.

Final Payton Talbott-Felipe Lima prediction & pick

Felipe Lima and Payton Talbott open at a blistering pace, with Talbott pressing forward and searching to land heavy combos early. Lima uses his footwork and range to avoid the worst of Talbott’s power, countering with crisp jabs and low kicks to disrupt the American’s rhythm.

As the primary round progresses, Lima begins mixing in level changes and clinch work, forcing Talbott to defend takedowns and expend energy.

By the second round, Lima’s pressure and grappling begin to pay dividends. He secures a takedown and controls Talbott on the mat, landing ground-and-pound and threatening with submissions. Talbott shows flashes of danger on the feet, but Lima’s composure and talent to transition between striking and grappling keep him a step ahead.

In the ultimate round, Talbott’s output slows as Lima continues to dictate the pace, landing clean shots within the stand-up and using his wrestling to neutralize Talbott’s offense. Lima avoids any late-fight danger, maintaining top control and ending strong.

After three competitive rounds, Lima’s well-rounded attack and superior fight IQ earn him a transparent decision victory, extending his win streak and handing Talbott one other tough lesson at UFC 317.

Final Payton Talbott-Felipe Lima Prediction & Pick: Felipe Lima (-180), Over 2.5 rounds (-195)