Bryce Mitchell vs. Said Nurmagomedov prediction, odds, pick for UFC Abu Dhabi

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As UFC Abu Dhabi continues to heat up from the Middle East, we’re set for a betting prediction and pick for the Featured Prelim bout of the night, going down within the Bantamweight (135) Division on Saturday. USA’s No. 15-ranked Bryce Mitchell will tackle Russia’s Said Nurmagomedov in a can’t-miss scrap. Check the UFC odds for our Mitchell-Nurmagomedov prediction and pick.

Bryce Mitchell (17-3) has gone 8-3 during his UFC stint since 2018. After opening his UFC tenure with six consecutive wins, Mitchell has gone 2-3 over his last five fights since facing top talent within the division. He’ll look to defend his Top 15 rating with one other tough challenge on this one. Mitchell stands 5-foot-10 with a 70-inch reach.

Said Nurmagomedov (18-4) is currently 7-3 under the UFC banner since 2018. Starting his UFC run on a 6-1 streak, he’s gone 1-2 over his last three fights since also upping his competition level. He’ll look to crack the rankings with a win in his first fight because the betting underdog. Nurmagomedov stands 5-foot-8 with a 70-inch reach.

Listed here are the UFC Abu Dhabi Odds, courtesy of DraftKings. 

UFC Abu Dhabi odds: Bryce Mitchell-Said Nurmagomedov odds

Bryce Mitchell: -130

Said Nurmagomedov: +110

Over 2.5 rounds: -154

Under 2.5 rounds: +120

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Why Bryce Mitchell will win

  • Last Fight: (L) Jean Silva – SUB (ninja choke, R2)
  • Last 5: 2-3
  • Finishes: 1 KO/TKO, 9 SUB

While Bryce Mitchell has gone a lackluster 1-2 in his last three fights, the losses have come against top fighters in Josh Emmett and Jean Silva. Each opponents were similar of their one-punch knockout threat, so it was clear Mitchell was hesitant to shut the space against a heavy hitter in each of those bouts.

This fight will probably be about getting back heading in the right direction and going back towards his grappling, which got him to this position in the primary place.

Bryce Mitchell can have a stern advantage on the bottom during this matchup despite Nurmagomedov’s six wins by submission.

Mitchell could be very adept at transitioning through the scrambles, and although he’s been caught before, he’s normally in a position to work his way out of bad situations. He’ll should be cautious of Nurmagomedov’s long limbs and skill to achieve for guillotines and other chokes.

Still, Mitchell is the rightful favorite here due to his grappling, and it should bail him out if he’s getting beaten on the feet. Mitchell lands on just 36% of his takedown attempts, but consistently going back to that well and threatening with level changes should keep his opponent guessing and on the defensive.

Why Said Nurmagomedov will win

  • Last Fight: (L) Vinicius Oliveira – U DEC
  • Last 5: 3-2
  • Finishes: 4 KO/TKO, 6 SUB

Said Nurmagomedov fell in his last fight to Vinicius Oliveira, however it’s a powerful testament to opponents not with the ability to handle Oliveira’s awkward fighting style.

Nurmagomedov is a technician along with his striking and prefers to display his Muay Thai skills from a protected striking distance. With the longer frame and higher distance management, search for Nurmagomedov to try to settle into his striking rhythm early.

Nurmagomedov will undoubtedly need to defend the takedowns during this fight, currently doing so with 62% accuracy. His successful takedown rate is far lower at just 15%, so he could have to make use of Mitchell’s shots against him as he tries to reverse positions along with his Judo throws.

Either way, Nurmagomedov can have to carry his own as this fight is prone to hit the bottom sooner or later.

To achieve success here, Nurmagomedov can discourage Mitchell from closing the space along with his energetic use of the kicking game. He’s great in snapping his kicks to all three levels, so it should put up a threat that Mitchell can have to regulate to instantly. Expect Nurmagomedov to repeat this tactic in giving himself some room to operate from striking range.

Final Bryce Mitchell-Said Nurmagomedov prediction & pick

This fight has all of the makings of an excellent one as we’ll see a grappling expert in Bryce Mitchell pitted against a striking savant in Said Nurmagomedov. Each men are coming in following disappointing losses by the hands of rising opponents, so it’ll be interesting to see who makes the correct adjustments ahead of this matchup.

While Said Nurmagomedov is a solid grappler in his own right, Mitchell is especially dangerous along with his unorthodox submission attempts and skill to twist opponents up on the bottom. Other than that, Nurmagomedov can only stand to win this fight if it stays on the feet for your entire duration.

While Bryce Mitchell is sure to sustain some damage throughout this one, I expect him to catch an eventual leg kick and produce this fight to the bottom. From there, we should always see Mitchell will a small advantage where he controls the wrestling and ultimately wins on the scorecards.

Final Bryce Mitchell-Said Nurmagomedov Prediction & Pick: Bryce Mitchell (-130)

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