Iasmin Lucindo vs. Angela Hill prediction, odds, pick for UFC Vegas 109

UFC Vegas 109: Roman Dolidze versus Anthony Hernandez continues on the most important card with a fight between Iasmin Lucindo and Angela Hill within the strawweight division on Saturday. Try our UFC odds series for our Lucindo-Hill prediction and pick.

Iasmin Lucindo (17-6) comes into this weekend’s matchup against Angela Hill with strong recent form, including wins over Karolina Kowalkiewicz and Marina Rodriguez in 2024. Despite a unanimous-decision loss to Amanda Lemos in March 2025, Lucindo has demonstrated resilience and well-rounded skills, seeking to construct momentum on this fight at UFC Vegas 109.

Angela Hill (18-14) comes into this weekend’s matchup against Iasmin Lucindo with a recent 3-2 in her last five. Highlights include a guillotine choke submission win over Luana Pinheiro in May 2024 and a split-decision victory over Ketlen Souza in February 2025. Hill’s experience and resilience position her to challenge Lucindo’s momentum on this strawweight battle.

Listed here are the UFC Vegas 109 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings. 

UFC Vegas 109 odds: Iasmin Lucindo-Angela Hill odds

Iasmin Lucindo: -180

Angela Hill: +150

Over 2.5 Rounds: -720

Under 2.5 Rounds: +450

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Why Iasmin Lucindo will win

• Last Fight: (L) Amanda Lemos – DEC
• Last 5: 4-1
• Finishes: 11 (8 KO/TKO/3 SUB)

Iasmin Lucindo possesses key benefits over Angela Hill heading into UFC Vegas 109. At 23 years old, Lucindo is in her physical prime, significantly younger than the 40-year-old Hill. This youth translates to hurry, energy, and sturdiness across the three rounds.

Lucindo’s aggressive style pairs well together with her ability to manage the fight’s location by mixing striking with effective takedowns. She averages about two takedowns per three rounds, imposing grappling pressure when needed.

Her striking, though not as high in volume as Hill’s, is precise and tactical, able to inflicting consistent damage while avoiding unnecessary risks. Lucindo’s slight reach advantage and well-rounded skill set enable her to maintain the fight near her preferred range, limiting Hill’s ability to make use of her volume-striking advantage effectively.

Lucindo’s recent wins over notable opponents like Karolina Kowalkiewicz and Marina Rodriguez highlight her capability to defeat high-level competition, demonstrating resilience even after a loss to Amanda Lemos.

Meanwhile, Hill’s somewhat declining physicality and fewer consistent defense against takedowns could allow Lucindo to dictate the bout, controlling where the fight goes.

Overall, Lucindo’s youth, grappling prowess, and tactical striking set her as much as outwork Hill and earn a choice win at UFC Vegas 109.

Why Angela Hill will win

• Last Fight: (W) Ketlen Souza – DEC
• Last 5: 3-2
• Finishes: 6 (5 KO/TKO/1 SUB)

Angela Hill brings extensive UFC experience against Iasmin Lucindo at UFC Vegas 109 that provides her a strategic edge. With an 18-14 skilled record and up to date UFC wins including a guillotine choke submission over Luana Pinheiro, Hill’s grappling has been sharp.

Her ability to complete on the bottom stays a serious threat to Lucindo, who shows some defensive grappling vulnerabilities.

Hill’s striking is precise and diverse with a 60% significant strike accuracy coupled with improved takedown defense at 72%, allowing her to administer exchanges each standing and on the mat. Although 40 years old, Hill’s fight IQ and resilience help her adapt mid-fight, potentially outsmarting the younger Lucindo.

Lucindo’s aggressive approach will not be enough to offset Hill’s experience and tactical composure, especially in close exchanges or grappling scrambles. Hill’s versatility and skill to combine striking with well-timed submissions positions her to manage the pace and avoid Lucindo’s takedown pressure.

If Hill can impose her game early and avoid being overwhelmed by Lucindo’s youthful energy, she is well-equipped to secure a choice or submission win. Her recent form and balanced skill set make her a favourite to outlast and outfight Lucindo at UFC Vegas 109.

Final Iasmin Lucindo-Angela Hill prediction & pick

Angela Hill enters UFC Vegas 109 as a slight underdog against the younger Iasmin Lucindo, but experience and tactical acumen could tip the scales in her favor. At 40, Hill brings a wealth of Octagon knowledge, having won three of her last 4 fights and demonstrated sharp grappling skills, including a recent guillotine choke submission victory.

Despite Lucindo’s physical youth and momentum from wins over notable contenders, Hill’s striking accuracy (60%) and solid takedown defense (around 75%) make her difficult to manage. Lucindo’s aggressive style and skill to land takedowns have worked on lesser competition, but Hill’s well-rounded game and skill to scramble back up may neutralize these efforts.

Hill’s high-volume striking—landing about 5.47 significant strikes per minute, gives her a consistent scoring edge so long as she stays upright.

Lucindo, while precise and tactical together with her striking, has shown vulnerabilities against stronger, more experienced opposition in grappling exchanges. The matchup will likely see Hill leveraging her fight IQ and composure to outpoint Lucindo over three tough rounds.

Overall, Hill’s experience, defensive grappling, and precision striking set her as much as edge a choice victory at UFC Vegas 109.

Final Iasmin Lucindo-Angela Hill Prediction & Pick: Angela Hill (+150), Over 2.5 Rounds (-750)