Michel Pereira vs. Kyle Daukaus prediction, odds, pick for UFC Shanghai

UFC Shanghai: Johnny Walker versus Mingyang Zhang continues the prelims with a fight between Michel Pereira and Kyle Daukaus within the middleweight division on Saturday. Check out our UFC odds series for our Pereira-Daukaus prediction and pick.

Michel Pereira (31-13) is coming off a troublesome loss to Abus Magomedov by unanimous decision in April 2025. Before that, he suffered a fifth-round TKO defeat to Anthony Hernandez in October 2024. Pereira is trying to bounce back against Kyle Daukaus this weekend at UFC Fight Night, aiming to snap a two-fight skid together with his dynamic striking and submission skills.

Kyle Daukaus (15-4) returns to the UFC on the back of dominant performances within the CFFC, where he scored a first-round KO over Keanan Patershuk in June 2024 and secured a third-round D’Arce choke submission against Sean Connor Fallon in February. Daukaus looks to proceed his winning streak against Michel Pereira this weekend together with his slick grappling and sharp ground game.

Listed here are the UFC Shanghai Odds, courtesy of DraftKings. 

UFC Shanghai odds: Michel Pereira-Kyle Daukaus odds

Michel Pereira: -265

Kyle Daukaus: +210

Over 1.5 rounds: -188

Under 1.5 rounds: +145

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Why Michel Pereira will win

• Last Fight: (L) Abus Magomedov – DEC
• Last 5: 3-2
• Finishes: 19 (8 KO/TKO/11 SUB)

Michel Pereira’s dynamic striking and unpredictable style give him a transparent edge against Kyle Daukaus at UFC Shanghai. Known for his flashy and inventive offense, Pereira has the flexibility to maintain Daukaus guessing and create openings together with his unorthodox attacks. His recent fights show he can absorb damage and keep pushing forward, a key asset against a grappler like Daukaus.

While Daukaus is a powerful grappler with effective submissions, Pereira’s improved takedown defense should limit Daukaus’ ability to manage the fight on the bottom. Pereira’s pace and striking versatility allow him to dictate where the fight takes place, reducing Daukaus’ probabilities to implement his ground game. This will probably be critical in maintaining the stand-up advantage.

Furthermore, Pereira’s experience against top-level opponents has sharpened his ability to regulate mid-fight. If he senses Daukaus becoming predictable, Pereira can switch gears and exploit openings together with his striking power and grappling skills, making him a well-rounded threat.

Pereira’s combination of striking creativity, takedown defense, and fight experience positions him as the favourite. Expect him to make use of his dynamic skill set to out-strike and outlast Daukaus, securing a win in the center rounds at UFC Shanghai.

Why Kyle Daukaus will win

• Last Fight: (W) Keanan Patershuk – KO/TKO R1
• Last 5: 4-1
• Finishes: 12 (1 KO/TKO/11 SUB)

Kyle Daukaus’ grappling prowess and relentless pressure give him a major edge over Michel Pereira at UFC Shanghai. Daukaus is understood for his ability to manage opponents on the bottom, smothering them with top pressure and securing submissions. His recent wins reveal his effectiveness in imposing his will through wrestling and ground control, which could neutralize Pereira’s flashy striking.

Pereira’s unorthodox style thrives in stand-up exchanges, but Daukaus’ takedown skills and improved ground defense should allow him to dictate the fight’s location. By forcing Pereira to fight off his back, Daukaus minimizes Pereira’s offensive creativity and reduces his power advantage. This tactic will likely frustrate Pereira and sap his energy.

Furthermore, Daukaus’ conditioning and patience make him a troublesome puzzle to unravel. He excels in grinding down opponents over several rounds, capitalizing on mistakes and wearing them out physically and mentally. Pereira has shown durability, but sustained pressure and wrestling will be an incredible equalizer.

Daukaus’ grappling control, superior wrestling, and skill to impose relentless pressure should result in a ground-dominant win. Expect Daukaus to stifle Pereira’s offense and secure either a submission victory or a call win at UFC Shanghai.

Final Michel Pereira-Kyle Daukaus prediction & pick

The fight between Michel Pereira and Kyle Daukaus at UFC Shanghai will probably be a classic striker versus grappler matchup. Pereira is understood for his unpredictable, flashy striking and unrelenting pressure, making him dangerous on the feet. His dynamic standup and creativity often catch opponents off guard, giving him the flexibility to finish fights with a spectacular finish.

Daukaus, nevertheless, brings a powerful wrestling and grappling pedigree into the cage. He has consistently shown the flexibility to manage fights on the bottom with dominant top pressure and slick submission skills. If Daukaus can secure takedowns early and maintain that control, he’ll neutralize much of Pereira’s striking threat.

The fight will likely come right down to Pereira’s takedown defense versus Daukaus’ persistence in shooting for the legs. Pereira has improved on this area, but Daukaus’ pressure and conditioning may wear him down over time.

This fight is closer than the betting line suggests, and Daukaus’ grappling gives him a slight edge. Expect him to win a hard-fought decision or possibly finish the fight on the bottom if he can control the pace and space effectively.

Final Michel Pereira-Kyle Daukaus Prediction & Pick: Kyle Daukaus (+210), Over 1.5 Rounds (-188)