Karine Silva vs. Dione Barbosa prediction, odds, pick for UFC 319

UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev continues to roll with the Early Prelims as we bring one other betting prediction and pick for this upcoming bout within the Women’s Flyweight (125) Division on Saturday. Fellow Brazilians meet as No. 11 Karine Silva takes on Dione Barbosa in a high-stakes bout. Try the UFC odds for our Silva-Barbosa prediction and pick.

Karine Silva (18-5) is currently 4-1 and ranked within the UFC since debuting in 2022. Notching 4 consecutive wins (three by submission) to open her UFC run, Silva dropped her first bout most recently against Viviane Araujo. She looks to bounce back because the betting favorite on this one. Silva stands 5-foot-5 with a 67-inch reach.

Dione Barbosa (8-3) has gone 2-1 within the UFC since debuting in 2024. The Contender Series product suffered her first loss to Miranda Maverick but bounced back with a ‘Performance of the Night’ submission in her last win against Diana Belbita. She steps in to save lots of this fight on two weeks’ notice, standing 5-foot-6 with a 65.5-inch reach.

Listed here are the UFC 319 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings. 

UFC 319 odds: Karine Silva-Dione Barbosa odds

Karine Silva: -205

Dione Barbosa: +170

Over 2.5 rounds: -270

Under 2.5 rounds: +200

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Why Karine Silva will win

• Last Fight: (L) Viviane Araujo – U DEC
• Last 5: 4-1
• Finishes: 8 KO/TKO, 9 SUB

Karine Silva suffered her first UFC loss during her last bout, coming against a tested veteran in Vivianne Araujo. While Silva had youth and size on her side, she fell behind on the striking numbers and was outmatched within the grappling. The loss should function a learning curve as she begins to see an increase in competition on this division.

Still, Karine Silva has shown her power on the feet prior to her UFC arrival, flipping the script once earning her contract and ending three of her 4 wins by submission. Her grappling has transferred extremely well, and he or she’s had a physical advantage over most of her opponents up thus far, but she’ll be coping with a rather larger opponent this time around.

Ultimately, Silva could have to be the more aggressive fighter despite being the betting favorite and having to pivot opponents. While previous opponent JJ Aldrich would have offered a more conservative look, Silva will likely need to create her own offense during this fight and gain the respect of her opponent.

Why Dione Barbosa will win

• Last Fight: (W) Diana Belbita – SUB (arm triangle choke, R1)
• Last 5: 4-1
• Finishes: 4 SUB

Dione Barbosa looked dominant during her last bout, quickly submitting her opponent with a robust arm triangle and leaving the bout unscathed.

She’s back on this spot on just two weeks’ notice, so it’ll be interesting to see what type of shape she’s in ahead of this fight. Still, she’ll pose a more dangerous threat to Silva than the previous opponent with less pressure as she answers the UFC’s call.

Barbosa has notched all her profession finishes on the bottom while never being submitted herself. On the feet, she’s still evolving as a kickboxer together with her traditional background in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu, so she’ll have to remain defensively sound together with her 67% striking defense against the facility shots of Silva.

Barbosa may stand to frustrate and wear her opponent down if she’s in a position to remain in perpetual motion. Her grappling is simply too dangerous for Silva to be aggressive together with her wrestling, so Barbosa could have to achieve respect on the feet early and put together mixtures to force her opponent to retreat.

Final Karine Silva-Dione Barbosa prediction & pick

With Dione Barbosa stepping in on two weeks’ notice to save lots of this fight, we even have a better matchup than the look the previous opponent could have offered. Each women are at the highest of their game by way of ground control and submission opportunities, so we could see the grappling cancel out as this fight takes place on the feet.

From there, Karine Silva has the slight advantage because of her boxing fluidity and skill to bob and weave from the pocket. Barbosa is technical in her own right but succeeds more while throwing straight shots from range. By way of cardio, now we have to provide the slight advantage to Barbosa because of her experience in three-round fights.

I feel this matchup is a bit closer than the betting lines indicate, and although Karine Silva is the rightful favorite, this line can be much closer if Barbosa had the advantage of a full camp. Nevertheless, I feel there’s serious value in her probabilities to search out a submission here while remaining lively enough on the feet to tire Silva out.

Final Karine Silva-Dione Barbosa Prediction & Pick: Dione Barbosa (+170)