Vitor Petrino vs. Thomas Petersen prediction, odds, pick for UFC Rio

The UFC Fight Night Prelims proceed to roll from Rio de Janeiro as we turn our attention towards this next bout within the Heavyweight Division. Dangerous finishers will meet as Brazil’s Vitor Petrino takes on Minnesota’s Thomas Petersen in a matchup you will not need to miss. Take a look at our UFC odds series for the Petrino-Petersen prediction and pick.

Vitor Petrino (12-2) opened his UFC tenure in 2023 and has gone 5-2 since. The Dana White’s Contender Series product began his run at light heavyweight, but made a successful debut at heavyweight with a submission over Austen Lane. Now he’ll hope to take out one other dangerous opponent as the favourite. Petrino stands 6-foot-2 with a 77.5-inch reach.

Thomas Petersen (10-3) has gone 2-2 since joining the UFC in 2024. After earning a contract on DWCS, Petersen has alternated wins and losses under the world’s biggest promotion, most recently beating Don’Tale Mayes via unanimous decision. He’ll search for the most important upset of his tenure so far. Petersen stands 6-foot-1 with a 74-inch reach.

Listed below are the UFC Rio Odds, courtesy of DraftKings. 

UFC Rio odds: Vitor Petrino-Thomas Petersen odds

Vitor Petrino: -298

Thomas Petersen: +240

Over 1.5 rounds: -200

Under 1.5 rounds: +154

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Why Vitor Petrino will win

• Last Fight: (W) Austen Lane – SUB (rear naked choke, R1)
• Last 5: 3-2
• Finishes: 7 KO/TKO, 2 SUB

After making his move to the Heavyweight Division, Vitor Petrino passed his first test with flying colours in notching a fast submission over Austen Lane. An especially dangerous striker, Lane had no answers for Petrino’s grappling and eventually fell victim to giving his back up and the eventual submission. Petrino retains all of his athletic ability on this recent division, and the best way he moves on the bottom could develop into an issue for a lot of fighters in the burden class.

Petrino can also be consistently improving his striking game, which he’ll need every little bit of against a pressure boxer like Petersen. His takedown defense is a solid 58%, but it surely’s price noting that Petersen sports a 100% takedown defense rate and has never been threatened on the bottom. If Petrino can develop into the primary, he should find a way to reveal the holes in Petersen’s submission defense.

Ultimately, Petrino’s best likelihood to win this fight shall be early on via submission. If he chooses to face and strike together with his opponent, he risks gassing out and allowing Petersen to throw mixtures on him. The quicker Petrino can get Petersen out of there, the less he’ll risk in an in depth striking bout on the scorecards.

Why Thomas Petersen will win

• Last Fight: (W) Don’Tale Mayes – U DEC
• Last 5: 3-2
• Finishes: 7 KO/TKO, 1 SUB

Thomas Petersen looked great in his last appearance against Don’Tale Mayes, out-striking his opponent a whopping 105-13 while landing nine takedowns. Petersen was extremely aggressive together with his wrestling and didn’t allow Mayes a second to breathe while always hitting him with strikes. He may take a unique approach against a grappler like Petrino, so do not be surprised if we see a complete recent side of Petersen on this fight.

On the feet, Petersen lands on 59% of his significant strikes while defending 57% of the shots coming back his way. His defensive guard on the feet is amazingly tight, and he’s hard to really hurt from strikes alone. Petrino has the ability to harm anyone, but Petersen can definitely turn the momentum if he’s in a position to gas his opponent out within the later rounds.

Petersen’s clearest path to victory on this fight shall be waiting for Petrino to shoot and emphatically stuffing the takedowns. Petrino’s cardio has been questionable previously, and at this heavyweight division, he risks gassing out even quicker. If Petersen is in a position to survive to the third round, he must be the more energetic fighter when it comes to the striking exchanges.

Final Vitor Petrino-Thomas Petersen prediction & pick

This must be an especially fun fight between two men willing to scrap. Each fighters have proved their knockout ability while also shining within the wrestling department. Vitor Petrino looks to be certainly one of the higher submission artists within the division, while Thomas Petersen is coming in off a nine-takedown performance and has shown a capability to carry his own on the feet as well.

Ultimately, I believe Thomas Petersen will do a ton on the feet to frustrate the rhythm of Petrino. Whether or not Petrino can secure the takedowns will ultimately determine this fight – I believe he’ll find a way to secure one, and it will be interesting to see what he’s in a position to do with it after the very fact.

We’ve to roll with Vitor Petrino for our final pick, but don’t in any respect be surprised if Petersen is in a position to shift momentum in his favor on plenty of occasions throughout this fight. We’ll side with the entire over as we see a probable decision.

Final Vitor Petrino-Thomas Petersen Prediction & Pick: Vitor Petrino (-298); OVER 1.5 Rounds (-200)