Julia Polastri vs. Karolina Kowalkiewicz prediction, odds, pick for UFC Rio

The UFC is back in Rio de Janeiro as we’re set for one more betting prediction and pick for this upcoming Prelim bout within the Women’s Strawweight (115) Division. Brazil’s own Julia Polastri will tackle veteran Karolina Kowalkiewicz of Poland in an interesting matchup. Try our UFC odds series for the Polastri-Kowalkiewicz prediction and pick.

Julia Polastri (13-5) has gone 1-2 since joining the UFC roster in 2024. After a formidable win over Cory McKenna via split decision, she dropped her most up-to-date bout against Loopy Godinez in convincing fashion. She’ll look to please her home country fans because the heavy favorite over a veteran of the division. Polastri stands 5-foot-2 with a 63.5-inch reach.

Karolina Kowalkiewicz (16-9) has gone 9-9 since joining the UFC back in 2015. She’s faced nearly everyone she will within the Strawweight Division, but she’s dropped her last two bouts to young prospects like Iasmin Lucindo and Denise Gomes. She’ll hope to interrupt this losing streak and get back within the win column. Kowalkiewicz stands 5-foot-3 with a 64-inch reach.

Listed here are the UFC Rio Odds, courtesy of DraftKings. 

UFC Rio odds: Julia Polastri-Karolina Kowalkiewicz odds

Julia Polastri: -455

Karolina Kowalkiewicz: +350

Over 2.5 rounds: -445

Under 2.5 rounds: +310

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Why Julia Polastri will win

• Last Fight: (L) Loopy Godinez – U DEC
• Last 5: 3-2
• Finishes: 4 KO/TKO, 3 SUB

Julia Polastri was significantly out-matched by Loopy Godinez during his last fight, keeping pace within the striking department but falling to 5 takedowns and significant ground control time. The loss is not all too bad given the rising stock of Godinez as a real contender, but it surely revealed a spot in Polastri’s game in the case of the grappling. Search for her to make noticeable improvements to her wrestling following her last fight.

At just 27 years old, Polastri continues to evolve as a mixed martial artist and putting all her skills together. She’ll be the quicker, more athletic fighter during this matchup, but she’ll have to be careful in not falling into any veteran traps from Kowalkiewicz. While this can be a noticeable step-up in competition for Polastri, she seems ready for the moment and the reasonable betting favorite.

So long as Polastri can avoid the jab of Kowalkiewicz, she should give you the chance to seek out her striking rhythm throughout this fight. Expect her 58% takedown defense to be tested throughout this bout, but when she’s capable of keep her opponent standing and in boxing range, Polastri should come away with the choice victory due to her hands.

Why Karolina Kowalkiewicz will win

• Last Fight: (L) Denise Gomes – U DEC
• Last 5: 3-2
• Finishes: 1 KO/TKO, 3 SUB

Karolina Kowalkiewicz is within the latter a part of her profession where she’s remaining relevant with intermittent wins but continually being tasked with fighting young up-and-coming fighters. This puts her in a difficult position, continually having to evolve her game at almost 40 years old. Nevertheless, she’s proven herself with a four-fight winning streak through 2023, so she’s able to get back within the win column against one other younger contender.

Kowalkiewicz’s last five-straight fights have gone towards a choice as she’s notched 12 wins on the scorecards during her profession. At this point, she’s still extremely tough and hard to place away for opponents. If she will weather the early striking storm from Polastri, she could have a probability to show the tide within the later rounds because the fighter with the higher cardio.

Moreover, Kowalkiewicz can test the wrestling of Polastri knowing she gave up five takedowns during her last fight, so do not be surprised if we see an aggressive version of Kowalkiewicz during this bout. She’ll have to seek out the striking openings herself, but it surely should open the chance for several looks at takedowns.

Final Julia Polastri-Karolina Kowalkiewicz prediction & pick

Each fighters needs to be very motivated coming into this bout given their most up-to-date losses. Julia Polastri is looking to determine herself throughout the division as Karolina Kowalkiewicz tries to steal her hype as a surging veteran. Polastri is the rightful favorite here due to her youth and striking, but Kowalkiewicz can actually make this a fight if she’s capable of push her opponent within the later rounds.

I don’t think Karolina Kowalkiewicz will threaten with a finish during this fight, and she or he’s not much at-risk of getting finished herself. Ultimately, if Polastri is capable of stuff the takedowns and keep Kowalkiewicz from clinching together with her, we should always see a masterclass on the feet by way of her volume striking.

For our final prediction, let’s roll with Julia Polastri to get the win because the betting favorite, likely controlling all three rounds en path to a unanimous decision on the judges’ scorecards.

Final Julia Polastri-Karolina Kowalkiewicz Prediction & Pick: Julia Polastri (-455); OVER 2.5 Rounds (-445)