Valter Walker vs. Mohammed Usman prediction, odds, pick for UFC Rio

UFC Rio: Charles Oliveira vs. Mateusz Gamrot continues on the prelims with a fight between Valter Walker and Mohammed Usman within the heavyweight division on Saturday. Check out our UFC odds series for our Walker-Usman prediction and pick.

Valter Walker (14-1) enters his Rio homecoming riding a three-fight winning streak, all via his signature first-round heel hook submissions against Don’Tale Mayes, Junior Tafa, and Kennedy Nzechukwu. The Clean Monster has made UFC history as the primary heavyweight to win three consecutive fights by heel hook, together with his most up-to-date victory coming in only 54 seconds as he comes into his fight this weekend against Mohammed Usman.

Mohammed Usman (12-4) snapped a two-fight losing streak with a comeback decision victory over Hamdy Abdelwahab at UFC Baku, overcoming early struggles to land crucial shots in the ultimate rounds. The brother of former welterweight champion Kamaru needed the career-saving win as he comes into his fight this weekend against Valter Walker.

Listed here are the UFC Rio Odds, courtesy of DraftKings. 

UFC Rio odds: Valter Walker-Mohammed Usman odds

Valter Walker: -310

Mohammed Usman: +250

Over 2.5 rounds: +120

Under 2.5 rounds: -154

*Watch sports LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*

Why Valter Walker will win

• Last Fight: (W) Kennedy Nzechukwu – SUB R1
• Last 5: 4-1
• Finishes: 10 (4 KO/TKO/6 SUB)

Walker enters UFC Rio with clear momentum, boasting an aggressive grappling arsenal and harsh ground-and-pound that has overwhelmed recent opponents. His first-round TKO win over Kevin Haley underscored his ability to impose his style early and keep fights on his terms.

Unlike Usman, who relies heavily on single power shots and slower-paced wrestling, Walker offers superior volume and positional control on the mat. If Walker can push the pace and get top position, his ability to unleash elbows and maintain pressure could quickly exhaust Usman, who has struggled with energy management in high-paced exchanges.

Walker’s size and technique advantage in clinch and takedown scenarios may help him neutralize Usman’s wrestling, turning the fight right into a grind that favors the Brazilian. Usman has shown vulnerability to heavy top pressure and control time, often finding himself stuck defending quite than attacking.

Moreover, Walker’s recent ending instincts have shown improvement, and his confidence continues to grow with each victory. If he can avoid Usman’s early explosive attempts and settle into his rhythm, Walker is poised to dominate the fight and potentially secure one other stoppage win at UFC Rio on Saturday.

Why Mohammed Usman will win

• Last Fight: (W) Hamdy Abdelwahab – DEC
• Last 5: 3-2
• Finishes: 6 (4 KO/TKO/2 SUB)

Usman brings UFC-tested experience and a physical edge into this matchup, having battled through tough competition and demonstrated resilience under pressure. His explosive double-leg takedowns and relentless top control have allowed him to secure rounds against dangerous opponents, most recently in his decision win over Junior Tafa.

If Usman can get inside Walker’s reach and dictate where the fight takes place, his ability to neutralize Walker’s offense with suffocating wrestling becomes a critical factor. Walker has shown ending ability, but Usman’s knack for slowing the pace and grinding out opponents could sap the Brazilian’s cardio and limit his ground-and-pound opportunities.

Usman is disciplined together with his defensive positioning, rarely giving up dominant positions once he establishes control on the mat. If the fight becomes a test of grit and endurance, Usman’s strength and cage craft make him well-suited for a three-round battle, wearing Walker down with pressure and positional advances.

Should Usman avoid getting clipped during early exchanges, he’s prone to bank rounds through control and damage, steadily constructing a lead. If he executes his wrestling game plan, Usman can hand Walker a rare defeat at UFC Rio on Saturday.

Final Valter Walker-Mohammed Usman prediction & pick

Walker storms into UFC Rio with a method built on early aggression and clinch control, immediately seeking to test Usman’s defensive grappling. From the opening bell, Walker closes distance efficiently and drives Usman to the fence, laying the groundwork for his signature submission offense.

Usman attempts to interrupt free and fire back with power shots, yet Walker’s positional dominance and technical grips leave little opportunity for escape. Walker rapidly changes levels, using deft footwork to transition to the mat where his ground arsenal swiftly comes into play.

On the canvas, Walker wastes no time establishing heavy pressure, isolating Usman’s leg and dealing for control of the ankle. Together with his proven ending instincts from previous fights, Walker locks in a good heel hook submission, forcing Usman to scramble and defend desperately.

The Brazilian crowd erupts as Walker secures an early tap, showcasing his lightning-fast submission prowess yet again. Walker’s mix of physicality and technical confidence proves the difference, and he continues his ascent within the heavyweight division with one other statement win at UFC Rio this Saturday.

Final Valter Walker-Mohammed Usman Prediction & Pick: Valter Walker (-310), Under 1.5 Rounds (-154)