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The UFC Vancouver Essential Card is finally here as we’re set to bring you a betting prediction and pick for this opening bout happening within the Lightweight (155) Division. Canada’s own Kyle Nelson will tackle Florida’s Matt Frevola in a particularly close fight on the betting lines. Try our UFC odds series for the Nelson-Frevola prediction and pick.
Kyle Nelson (16-6-1) has gone 4-5-1 contained in the UFC since 2018. After winning three consecutive bouts against the likes of Bill Algeo, Fernando Padilla, and Blake Bilder, Nelson dropped his last bout via knockout and was heavy on the scales. He’ll be searching for redemption because the slightest betting underdog. Nelson stands 5-foot-11 with a 71-inch reach.
Matt Frevola (11-5-1) has gone 5-5-1 since joining the UFC roster in 2018. He saw a three-fight winning streak of his own, but has suffered back-to-back losses by knockout by the hands of Benoit Saint-Denis and Fares Ziam. Now, he’ll be seeking to rebound because the betting favorite on this matchup. Frevola stands 5-foot-9 with a 71-inch reach.
Listed here are the UFC Vancouver Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Vancouver odds: Kyle Nelson-Matt Frevola odds
Kyle Nelson: +105
Matt Frevola: -125
Over 2.5 rounds: +140
Under 2.5 rounds: -180
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Why Kyle Nelson will win
- Last Fight: (L) Steve Garcia – TKO (elbows, R1)
- Last 5: 3-1-1
- Finishes: 6 KO/TKO, 4 SUB
Kyle Nelson is available in following a troublesome outing against Steve Garcia where he couldn’t get anything going and was finished relatively quickly. Coming in heavy on the scales, it wasn’t the proudest showing for Nelson, and we have seen him able to a lot better prior to now. Fighting in front of his home-country fans, expect Kyle Nelson to be far more technical and sound coming into this appearance.
Kyle Nelson is excellent at implementing a selected game plan and exploiting his opponents’ weaknesses together with his own offense. He’s develop into a really solid and technical striker over time, and his striking defense has been even higher, defending 51% of strikes coming back his way. He’s also a solid wrestler and might steal control time against the fence if he’s in a position to secure a positive angle.
Nelson’s key to victory during this fight will likely be pushing the pace, connecting on high strikes when he closes the gap and clinching with Frevola along the fence to negate his offense. If Nelson can do all this while still controlling any grappling exchanges, he should do enough to search out the upset.
Why Matt Frevola will win
- Last Fight: (L) Fares Ziam– TKO (knee, R3)
- Last 5: 3-2
- Finishes: 4 KO/TKO, 3 SUB
Matt Frevola also looked flat during his latest appearance as he was clearly beaten and battered by the third round. Through the primary two rounds, Frevola was throwing every part behind his strikes but repeatedly had a tough time connecting as a result of the reach discrepancy. He’ll have a a lot better physical matchup against Nelson, so do not be surprised if Frevola becomes moreover aggressive with this forward pressure.
Matt Frevola can be a really solid grappler, and although his takedown defense is not great at 38%, he’s very expert in keeping opponents on their back and controlling with top pressure. Nelson has notably fallen to submission prior to now, so do not be surprised if Frevola jumps on the neck or takes the back if he’s in a position to drop Nelson at any point.
Frevola is the betting favorite during this matchup but not by much, so it’s essential for him to respect his opponent and never rush into any unnecessary offense. He’s been known to blitz opponents with mixtures prior to now, and it’s worked well, but a more measured and methodical approach could possibly be needed in securing the victory over Kyle Nelson.
Final Kyle Nelson-Matt Frevola prediction & pick
That is one other extremely close stylistic matchup as each fighters are very well-rounded in all areas. Each men are very strong grapplers, and while we may even see some exchanges along the fence, I do not expect these two to spend much time on the bottom.
Frevola definitely has the facility advantage, but we have seen Nelson sport the higher striking techniques and has the more sound defense. If he can manage to maintain a secure distance and hit Frevola consistently together with his offense, he should give you the chance to dictate the pace and where this fight takes place.
Moreover, if he’s winning the primary two rounds, we like Nelson’s probabilities to secure ground control within the third round and ride out a call victory. The house Canadian fans should give him an added boost of motivation, so do not be afraid backing the short underdog on this fight.
Final Kyle Nelson-Matt Frevola Prediction & Pick: Kyle Nelson (+105)
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