Kyle Prepolec vs. Drew Dober prediction, odds, pick for UFC Vancouver

UFC Rio: Reinier de Ridder vs. Brendan Allen continues on the prelims with a fight between Kyle Prepolec and Drew Dober within the lightweight division on Saturday. Check out our UFC odds series for our Prepolec-Dober prediction and pick.

Kyle Prepolec (18-9) returned to the UFC this yr but suffered a second-round submission loss to Benoît Saint Denis after stringing together back-to-back first-round knockouts in regional promotions. The Canadian lightweight seeks his first Octagon victory in front of a house crowd as he comes into his fight this weekend against Drew Dober.

Drew Dober (27-15) snapped a losing streak with a first-round knockout over Ricky Glenn but subsequently dropped tough finishes to Manuel Torres and Jean Silva in his last two UFC bouts. The fan-favorite brawler chases one other highlight-reel rebound as he comes into his fight this weekend against Kyle Prepolec.

Listed below are the UFC Vancouver Odds, courtesy of DraftKings. 

UFC Vancouver odds: Kyle Prepolec-Drew Dober odds

Kyle Prepolec: +390

Drew Dober: -520

Over 1.5 rounds: -188

Under 1.5 rounds: +145

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Why Kyle Prepolec will win

• Last Fight: (L) Benoit Saint-Denis – SUB R2
• Last 5: 3-2
• Finishes: 14 (10 KO/TKO/4 SUB)

Kyle Prepolec holds several key benefits that would propel him to his first UFC victory against Drew Dober at UFC Vancouver. His height and reach advantage at 5-foot-10 versus Dober’s 5-foot-8 frame gives him the physical tools to regulate distance and utilize his kicking game effectively, while fighting at home in Canada provides invaluable crowd support and emotional momentum.​

Prepolec enters this fight with a full seven-week training camp, his first proper preparation since returning to the UFC after taking the Saint Denis fight on short notice. This prolonged preparation allowed him to coach at elite gyms like Niagara Top Team alongside fellow UFC Vancouver fighters, sharpening his skills against high-level competition and addressing technical deficiencies.​

Dober’s recent struggles can’t be ignored as he’s lost three straight fights and been stopped in his last two outings against Manuel Torres and Jean Silva. His chin appears to be showing wear after years of wars, and his aggressive forward pressure style that after served him well now leaves him vulnerable to counters from rangier opponents.​

The stylistic matchup favors Prepolec’s calculated approach over Dober’s reckless aggression, especially with the larger UFC cage providing more room to maneuver and establish range. Expect Prepolec to make use of his length, pick his spots fastidiously, and capitalize on Dober’s declining durability to secure a choice victory or late finish as he finally breaks through for his elusive first UFC win.​

Why Drew Dober will win

• Last Fight: (L) Manuel Torres – KO/TKO R1
• Last 5: 1-4
• Finishes: 20 (11 KO/TKO/9 SUB)

Drew Dober possesses significant benefits in experience, output, and ending ability that ought to propel him to victory against Kyle Prepolec at UFC Vancouver. With greater than 40 skilled fights in comparison with Prepolec’s 27, Dober brings superior Octagon experience and a proven track record of thriving under pressure, having secured 16 finishes throughout his profession including recent knockout power demonstrated against Ricky Glenn.​

Dober’s statistical benefits are compelling, landing 4.36 significant strikes per minute in comparison with Prepolec’s 2.87 while maintaining higher accuracy at 40% versus 35%. His takedown insurance and superior takedown defense (56% vs 40%) give him multiple avenues to regulate the fight, whether standing or grappling.​

Despite recent setbacks against elite competition like Manuel Torres and Jean Silva, Dober’s losses got here against rising contenders who’re significantly more dangerous than the regional-level Prepolec. The Canadian’s UFC struggles are evident, having lost three of 4 octagon appearances along with his lone victory coming via split decision, showcasing his inability to impose his will against UFC-caliber opposition.​​

Dober’s proven durability and ending instinct should overwhelm Prepolec’s limited offensive output and questionable takedown defense. The Nebraska native’s southpaw pressure and body work will break down Prepolec’s defense over three rounds, resulting in either a late stoppage or dominant decision victory as he snaps his losing streak in front of hostile Canadian crowd.

Final Kyle Prepolec-Drew Dober prediction & pick

This lightweight showdown between Drew Dober and Kyle Prepolec at UFC Vancouver presents contrasting narratives with the experienced veteran facing a determined Canadian fighting for his UFC profession on home soil. Dober brings 42 skilled fights and proven ending ability while Prepolec seeks his first Octagon victory with the added motivation of fighting in front of his home crowd.​​

The statistical breakdown favors Dober significantly as he lands nearly double the numerous strikes per minute (4.36 vs 2.87) and maintains superior accuracy and takedown defense. His recent knockout of Ricky Glenn demonstrated that his power stays intact despite consecutive losses to rising contenders Manuel Torres and Jean Silva, each of whom represent a transparent step up in competition from Prepolec’s level.​

Prepolec’s benefits lie in his height, reach, and residential crowd support, but his UFC record of 1-3 along with his lone victory coming via controversial split decision raises questions on his ability to compete at this level. His recent submission loss to Benoît Saint Denis on short notice highlighted defensive vulnerabilities that Dober’s pressure style should exploit.​​

The experience gap and output differential prove decisive aspects on this matchup. Expect Dober’s relentless pressure, superior volume, and ending instinct to wear down Prepolec over three rounds, securing either a late stoppage or clear decision victory as he rebounds from his recent skid.​​

Final Kyle Prepolec-Drew Dober Prediction & Pick: Drew Dober (-520), Over 1.5 Rounds (-188)