Melissa Croden vs. Tainara Lisboa prediction, odds, pick for UFC Vancouver

UFC Rio: Reinier de Ridder vs. Brendan Allen kicks off the prelims with a fight between Melissa Croden and Tainara Lisboa in the ladies’s flyweight division on Saturday. Check out our UFC odds series for our Croden-Lisboa prediction and pick.

Melissa Croden (6-2) enters her UFC debut, riding a two-fight win streak that features a second-round TKO over Ashley Deen and a gritty decision against Katharina Lehner in LFA competition. All her wins have come by finish, making her debut highly anticipated as she comes into his fight this weekend against Tainara Lisboa.

Tainara Lisboa (7-3) enters UFC Vancouver, having recently dropped a submission loss to Luana Santos after earning a gritty unanimous-decision win over Ravena Oliveira. Known for her Muay Thai striking and submission skills, she looks to rebound as she comes into his fight this weekend against Melissa Croden.

Listed here are the UFC Vancouver Odds, courtesy of DraftKings. 

UFC Vancouver odds: Melissa Croden-Tainara Lisboa odds

Melissa Croden: -120

Tainara Lisboa: +100

Over 2.5 rounds:  -215

Under 2.5 rounds: +165

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Why Melissa Croden will win

• Last Fight: (W) Ashley Deen – KO/TKO R2
• Last 5: 4-1
• Finishes: 6 (5 KO/TKO/1 SUB)

Melissa Croden is poised for a breakout performance in her debut at UFC Vancouver resulting from her ending instinct, power striking, and psychological edge fighting on home soil. All six of her skilled wins have come by stoppage, including five knockouts, showing she brings relentless aggression and diverse ending ability each time she steps within the cage.​

Her recent Legacy Fighting Alliance form, which included a TKO against Ashley Deen and a hard-fought win over Katharina Lehner, displayed Croden’s capability to take care of composure and pace in high-pressure situations. With an extended layoff behind her, Croden enters this bout hungry and sharper than ever, determined to make her Octagon debut count for each her profession and Canadian fans.​

Tainara Lisboa, while dangerous along with her grappling and Muay Thai, struggled in her last outing against Luana Santos, particularly under heavy top pressure and ground exchanges. If Croden can fend off early grappling threats and use her clinch strength to maintain the fight standing, she should give you the chance to capitalize on Lisboa’s vulnerabilities—especially if Lisboa gets desperate because the fight wears on.​​

Given Croden’s ability to swarm, her ending experience, and a passionate crowd behind her, she holds a transparent path to victory as she goals to overwhelm Lisboa and announce herself to the UFC bantamweight division in style.​

Why Tainara Lisboa will win

• Last Fight: (L) Luana Santos – SUB R1
• Last 5: 4-1
• Finishes: 6 (3 KO/TKO/3 SUB)

Tainara Lisboa holds a transparent experience edge entering UFC Vancouver with three UFC fights already under her belt and a proven record against tough opposition. This octagon familiarity gives her the composure and poise to handle the UFC highlight, unlike the debuting Croden, whose ending streak stays untested at this level.​

Lisboa’s diverse skill set, mixing Muay Thai striking with slick submissions, gives her multiple avenues to victory. Her ability to transition from striking to grappling makes her particularly dangerous against opponents who depend on forward pressure and power, like Croden, whose ground game and takedown defense haven’t been fully pushed in elite competition.​

Analysts point to Lisboa’s disciplined footwork and superior grappling as keys to breaking Croden’s aggressive rhythm. If Lisboa can mix in takedowns and keep Croden guessing, she’ll give you the chance to manage the tempo, drag the fight into later rounds, and exploit potential cardio or defensive gaps in Croden’s game.​

Expect Lisboa to weather early storms, apply her UFC-caliber experience and capitalize on her well-rounded arsenal to secure either a late submission or a convincing decision as she silences the gang in Vancouver and adds one other win to her rising UFC resume.​

Final Melissa Croden-Tainara Lisboa prediction & pick

This bantamweight showdown between Melissa Croden and Tainara Lisboa at UFC Vancouver is a compelling clash of styles and narratives destined for fireworks. Croden enters the octagon with an ideal ending rate, riding significant momentum from her regional dominance and knockout power while drawing extra motivation from a energetic Canadian crowd for her homecoming debut.​

Lisboa brings more UFC experience and an arsenal mixing Muay Thai and submission grappling, giving her legitimate paths to win each on the feet and on the mat. She’s proven resilient contained in the octagon and is motivated to rebound from her most up-to-date submission setback, aiming to spoil Croden’s big moment against a comparatively untested newcomer at this level.​

Early, Croden’s aggression and heavy hands could threaten a fast stoppage, especially if she establishes her range and tempo. Nevertheless, it’s Lisboa’s ability to combine her striking with timely takedowns and wear on Croden’s cardio that may tip the competition in her favor because the rounds progress.​

Expect a competitive opening, but Lisboa’s savvy and well-rounded game could allow her to survive early pressure and take over late. Ultimately, Lisboa wins via close decision, handing Croden her first UFC loss after a hard-fought debut.​

Final Melissa Croden-Tainara Lisboa Prediction & Pick: Tainara Lisboa (+100), Over 2.5 Rounds (-215)