Tom Aspinall vs. Ciryl Gane prediction, odds, pick for UFC 321

The finale of UFC 321 is finally here as we bring you our final betting prediction and pick for this Heavyweight title fight. Champion Tom Aspinall of England makes his first title defense against former champ and No. 1-ranked Ciryl Gane of France. Check our UFC odds series for the Aspinall-Gane prediction and pick.

Tom Aspinall (15-3) has gone 8-1 within the UFC since 2020 en path to becoming champion. After his knockout over Sergei Pavlovich to realize the interim belt, he defeated Curtis vis first-round knockout in his first title defense. Now, he’ll look to take down a former champion waiting for his redemption. Aspinall stands 6-foot-5 with a 78-inch reach.

Ciryl Gane (13-2) is currently 10-2 contained in the UFC since 2019. After his championship loss to Jon Jones in 2023, Gane bounced back with consecutive wins over Serghei Spivac and Alexander Volkov. Retaining his No. 1 rating, he’ll look to regain the title belt once more. Gane stands 6-foot-4 with an 81-inch reach.

Listed here are the UFC 321 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings. 

UFC 321 Odds: Tom Aspinall-Ciryl Gane Odds

Tom Aspinall: -345

Ciryl Gane: +275

Over 1.5 rounds: -125

Under 1.5 rounds: -105

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Why Tom Aspinall Will Win

• Last Fight: (W) Curtis Blaydes – TKO (ground strikes, R1)
• Last 5: 4-1
• Finishes: 11 KO/TKO, 4 SUB

Tom Aspinall comes into his second heavyweight title defense following a dismantling of Curtis Blaydes in the primary round. Many thought Curtis Blaydes would pose a serious threat along with his world-class wrestling, but Aspinall quickly found the goal with a counter jab and finished the fight along with his ground-and-pound. On the feet, Aspinall definitely possesses the much higher knockout upside opposite of Gane, which is backed by the full rounds for this fight sitting at just 1.5.

It’s value noting that although Ciryl Gane won his last fight against Alexander Volkov, it was a narrow split decision that saw Volkov gain steam by the top of the fight. Gane is way more willing to interact in a five-round kickboxing match, but Aspinall’s aggression and willingness to shut the space clearly combats that. The more Aspinall can pressure Gane throughout this fight, the faster he’ll hurt him and chase the finish.

Aspinall also has the superior jiu jitsu and wrestling scrambles on this matchup. He’ll welcome any wrestling and can pin his skills against Gane, so do not be surprised if he threatens a level change early. Aspinall will still need to be wary when stepping into range as Gane has been known to be a technician along with his short counter punches.

Why Ciryl Gane Will Win

• Last Fight: (W) Alexander Volkov – S DEC
• Last 5: 3-2
• Finishes: 6 KO/TKO, 3 SUB

Ciryl Gane’s last fight was a razor-thin split decision that really saw Alexander Volkov ahead on strikes 105-48. Despite the margin, Gane was in a position to mix his wrestling and submission grappling to use a few of the gaps in Volkov’s game. There won’t be many gaps to reap the benefits of against a champion in his prime like Aspinall, but Gane feels as if he can string this fight along to a different close decision.

With six knockout wins, Gane is not as much a one-punch knockout artist as he’s a striking technician. He’s in a position to land several combos cleanly and in succession, eventually overwhelming his opponents and putting them away. His striking accuracy (61%) will probably be his biggest strength during this fight and he’ll need to remain calm under pressure once Aspinall starts swinging for the fences. Per usual, finesse and precision will probably be the secret for Ciryl Gane.

Given the willingness to wrestle during his last fight, it’s clear Gane is preparing for the bottom game ahead of this championship bout. He’s great at getting back to his feet, nevertheless it’ll be interesting to see if he’s in a position to remain mistake-free with Aspinall chasing submissions.

Final Tom Aspinall-Ciryl Gane Prediction & Pick

This stylistic matchup is definitely an amazing one, but there is not any doubt that champion Tom Aspinall has the clear edge on this fight. He’s way more aggressive than Gane in closing the space and we have seen devastating results when he’s been in a position to land cleanly on his previous couple of opponents. His experience on the bottom and skill to seek out submissions may even be a large threat throughout this fight.

Nevertheless, Ciryl Gane has been on this position before and he all the time seems so as to add latest wrinkles to his game, fully rounding out his skill set. His reach advantage could come into play if he decides to fight behind a straight jab. The most important key for Gane will probably be catching Aspinall on the entries and any time he tries to quickly close the space.

Each fighters are also lively with their kicking game, so do not be surprised if we see them get creative with high kick attempts. The low leg kick has been a theme for each side previously, so it’ll be interesting to see who’s in a position to implement the technique first.

For our final prediction, nevertheless, we’ve to roll with Tom Aspinall to get the win. He has more tools to win the fight and I expect him to have his best showing as a champion here. Still, expect Ciryl Gane to hold within the for a while as he makes this an in depth fight early on.

Final Tom Aspinall-Ciryl Gane Prediction & Pick: Tom Aspinall (-345): OVER 1.5 Rounds (-125)