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UFC 323: Merab Dvalishvili vs. Petr Yan 2 continues on the prelims with a fight between Terrance McKinney and Chris Duncan within the lightweight division on Saturday. Check out our UFC odds series for our McKinney-Duncan prediction and pick.
Terrance McKinney (17-7) rides a two-fight surge into UFC 323, starching Damir Hadzovic with first-round ground-and-pound before snatching a mounted guillotine on Viacheslav Borshchev in under a minute. The explosive lightweight now owns 15 first-round finishes as he comes into his fight this weekend against Chris Duncan.
Chris Duncan (14-2) enters UFC 323 hot off a gutsy decision win over Mateusz Rebecki in August and a second-round guillotine submission of Jordan Vucenic in March. The Scottish lightweight has shown resilience and ending ability as he comes into his fight this weekend against Terrance McKinney.
Listed here are the UFC 323 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC 323 odds: Terrance McKinney-Chris Duncan odds
Terrance McKinney: +136
Chris Duncan: -162
Over 1.5 rounds: +260
Under 1.5 rounds: -360
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Why Terrance McKinney will win
- Last Fight: (W) Viacheslav Borshchev – DEC
- Last 5: 4-1
- Finishes: 17 (8 KO/TKO/7 SUB)
Terrance McKinney has the type of explosive, round-one kill switch that may punish Chris Duncan’s hittable defense at UFC 323. With 15 first-round finishes on his record, McKinney’s length, speed, and southpaw power give him a transparent opportunity to catch Duncan before the Scot can settle into his pressure game.
On the feet, McKinney throws sharp straight lefts and high kicks down the center, precisely the tools that may disrupt Duncan’s tendency to come back forward on a straight line. If Duncan bites on feints or overextends on combos, McKinney can counter with clean shots or level-change underneath into takedowns.
The wrestling and submission edge also lean toward McKinney, who has repeatedly shown a dangerous front-choke series once he gets opponents scrambling. Duncan has been forced to fight off his back and surrender positions in past bouts, and any sloppy shot or scramble could see McKinney locking up a good guillotine or rear-naked choke.
Cardio questions for McKinney matter less in a matchup where his best win condition is early, controlled chaos. Expect him to start out fast, push a pace Duncan is uncomfortable with, and either discover a highlight-reel knockout or opportunistic submission inside the first two rounds on Saturday night.
Why Chris Duncan will win
- Last Fight: (W) Mateusz Rebecki – DEC
- Last 5: 4-1
- Finishes: 10 (7 KO/TKO/3 SUB)
Chris Duncan has the precise type of durability, composure, and well-roundedness to survive Terrance McKinney’s early storm and flip this fight late at UFC 323. The Scot rides a three-fight win streak, including a gritty upset over Mateusz Rebecki that showcased his ability to weather pressure and adjust mid-fight.
McKinney is at his most dangerous within the opening minutes, but his cardio and sturdiness have repeatedly dipped once opponents push him past that early kill window. Duncan, against this, has shown strong conditioning, solid defense, and a willingness to grind through adversity, which plays perfectly right into a game plan of dragging McKinney into deeper waters.
Technically, Duncan brings underrated power in his hands and a proven submission threat, particularly along with his guillotine, which he has locked up multiple times within the UFC. If McKinney shoots desperation takedowns after his initial burst fades, Duncan can punish him with sprawls, front-headlock attacks, and punishing counters on the break.
Once the pace evens out, Duncan’s tighter boxing, steadier output, and greater resilience should begin to tell. Expect McKinney to be dangerous early, however the lean is Duncan by late TKO or club-and-sub style finish after forcing McKinney into one other high-pace, gas-draining war.
Final Terrance McKinney-Chris Duncan prediction & pick
This matchup is considered one of the clearest “boom-or-bust” spots on the UFC 323 card, with McKinney’s early explosiveness pitted against Duncan’s durability and late-round reliability. The betting market leans Duncan as a moderate favorite, reflecting greater trust in his ability to navigate adversity over three rounds.
Early, McKinney is live to blow this open with speed, power, and aggressive wrestling, especially given his massive edge in average fight time and first-round finish rate. Nonetheless, if Duncan survives the initial five to seven minutes, the momentum profile flips, as his leg kicks, body work, and steadier cardio are likely to shine in prolonged fights.
Duncan’s willingness to pressure, his improved defense, and his proven resilience against hard hitters are key reasons many analytics models edge his side. He can chip away at McKinney’s base, force longer exchanges, and capitalize once McKinney’s output and reactions slow, either by outworking him to a call or pouring on volume for a late stoppage.
Given the percentages, cardio trends, and stylistic dynamics, the slight lean is toward Chris Duncan to weather a rough early storm after which take over. Expect McKinney to threaten early, but Duncan’s toughness and consistency likely carry him to a comeback TKO or submission win on Saturday night.
Final Terrance McKinney-Chris Duncan Prediction & Pick: Chris Duncan (-162), Under 1.5 Rounds (-360)
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