Cesar Almeida vs. Cezary Oleksiejczuk prediction, odds, pick for UFC Vegas 112

UFC Vegas 112: Brandon Royval vs. Manel Kape continues on the foremost card with a fight between Cesar Almeida and Cezary Oleksiejczuk within the Middleweight Division on Saturday. Check out our UFC odds series for our Almeida-Oleksiejczuk prediction and pick.

Cesar Almeida (7-1) has regained his momentum within the middleweight division. Since suffering his lone profession defeat to Roman Kopylov, “Cesinha” bounced back with a choice over Ihor Potieria and a first-round knockout of Abdul Razak Alhassan in January, as he comes into his fight this weekend against Cezary Oleksiejczuk.

Cezary Oleksiejczuk (16-3) enters the octagon riding a wave of momentum, capped by a surprising 36-second TKO on Dana White’s Contender Series. With ending power and up to date wins over veterans like Tom Breese, the 25-year-old looks to make an announcement in his promotional debut as he comes into his fight this weekend against Cesar Almeida.

Listed below are the UFC Vegas 112 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings. 

UFC Vegas 112 odds: Cesar Almeida-Cezary Oleksiejczuk odds

Cesar Almeida: +180

Cezary Oleksiejczuk: -218

Over 1.5 rounds: -160

Under 1.5 rounds: +124

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Why Cesar Almeida will win

• Last Fight: (W) Abdul Razak Alhassan – KO/TKO R1
• Last 5: 4-1 
• Finishes: 5 (4 KO/TKO/1 SUB)

Despite the hype surrounding the Polish prospect, Cesar Almeida’s elite kickboxing pedigree makes him a nightmare matchup for Cezary Oleksiejczuk’s promotional debut. Oleksiejczuk, a former welterweight moving as much as 185 kilos, can be giving up significant physicality to a natural middleweight who has stood toe-to-toe with Alex Pereira in Glory. The Pole relies heavily on speed and athleticism, but Almeida’s timing and counter-striking are purpose-built to punish aggressive, linear attacks.

The “UFC jitters” are a tangible factor for any debutant, and Oleksiejczuk is stepping straight into the hearth against a ranked-caliber striker. While Oleksiejczuk’s 36-second Contender Series win was flashy, it didn’t test his durability or cardio against high-level opposition. Almeida has already weathered storms against power punchers like Abdul Razak Alhassan, proving he can take a shot and return fire with devastating precision.

Oleksiejczuk’s clearest path to victory involves wrestling, but Almeida showed vastly improved takedown defense in his recent outings. If this fight stays standing—which Almeida’s 6’1″ frame and clinch control will likely ensure—the technical disparity will change into glaring. Search for Almeida to take a position in leg kicks early to compromise Oleksiejczuk’s movement before finding a house for a knockout blow within the second round.

Why Cezary Oleksiejczuk will win

• Last Fight: (W) Theo Haig – KO/TKO R1
• Last 5: 4-1
• Finishes: 11 (9 KO/TKO/2 SUB)

Cezary Oleksiejczuk’s youth, speed, and well-rounded skill set give him a definite edge over the older, more one-dimensional Cesar Almeida. While Almeida is a world-class kickboxer, his grappling defense stays a glaring liability, as exposed in his loss to Roman Kopylov where he surrendered five takedowns. Oleksiejczuk, though primarily a striker, possesses the wrestling upside to use this weakness, averaging efficient takedowns and mixing his attacks seamlessly.

At just 25 years old, the Polish prospect brings an explosiveness and cardio advantage that might overwhelm the 37-year-old Almeida, who tends to fade in high-paced bouts. Oleksiejczuk’s 36-second knockout on the Contender Series proved he has ending power, but his path to victory here likely involves a mixed martial arts approach. By threatening takedowns, he can freeze Almeida’s striking, forcing the Brazilian to hesitate and creating openings for his own sharp boxing combos.

Almeida relies heavily on his opponents playing his game at kickboxing range, but Oleksiejczuk is disciplined enough to disclaim him that comfort zone. Expect the younger fighter to push a relentless pace, mixing level changes with high-volume striking to frustrate Almeida. Unless Almeida lands an ideal counter early, Oleksiejczuk’s versatility and athleticism will guide him to a dominant decision victory or late stoppage.

Final Cesar Almeida-Cezary Oleksiejczuk prediction & pick

My pick for this matchup is Cezary Oleksiejczuk, largely resulting from the large twelve-year age advantage and his ability to combine martial arts disciplines more fluidly than his opponent. While Cesar Almeida possesses world-class kickboxing credentials, at 37 years old, his response times and talent to sprawl against a younger, faster hybrid athlete can be severely tested.

Oleksiejczuk just isn’t only a striker; he showed on the Contender Series that he can explode with offense, and his background suggests he won’t be stubborn enough to kickbox with a Glory veteran for 3 rounds. By threatening the takedown, even when simply to clinch or push Almeida against the fence, Oleksiejczuk can disrupt the Brazilian’s rhythm and negate the facility disparity.

The dimensions difference is a legitimate concern with Oleksiejczuk moving up from welterweight, but his speed advantage should allow him to land volume and exit before Almeida can plant his feet for a counter. Almeida’s loss to Roman Kopylov provided the blueprint to beating him: mix grappling with striking to empty his gas tank.

Expect Oleksiejczuk to survive a tense first round before taking on with superior cardio and activity within the second and third frames. The pick is Oleksiejczuk to announce his arrival within the division with a hard-fought unanimous decision victory.

Final Cesar Almeida-Cezary Oleksiejczuk Prediction & Pick: Cezary Oleksiejczuk (-218), Over 1.5 Rounds (-160)