A Canadian government report distributed on Monday said there was no indication of a reputable threat to Jewish holiday events on this country but that a violent attack was still a “realistic possibility.”
The unclassified report was prepared by the federal Integrated Threat Assessment Centre following Sunday’s deadly terrorist attack at a Hanukkah gathering in Sydney, Australia.
“There’s currently no observed reporting indicating an imminent, credible threat targeting the 2025 holiday season in Canada, including events related to the Jewish community,” it said.
“Nonetheless, we cannot discount a lone actor or small group using available weapons mobilizing to violence with little to no intelligence forewarning,” the agency wrote within the report.
“A violent extremist attack in Canada, including one targeting the Jewish community, stays a sensible possibility,” the threat assessment agency, known by the acronym ITAC, concluded.
The report was marked “official use only,” but a replica was obtained by Global News from a source. A government official confirmed its authenticity to Global News.
The agency has been using the term “realistic possibility” to explain the probabilities of an attack on the Jewish community for greater than a yr within the aftermath of the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas attack on Israel.
Get breaking National news
For news impacting Canada and world wide, join for breaking news alerts delivered on to you after they occur.
Since then, Canada’s Jewish community has experienced rising antisemitism in the shape of hate crimes in addition to gunfire, arsons and bomb threats targeting Jewish schools and community institutions.
Last yr, the RCMP disrupted an alleged ISIS-inspired plot in Toronto, and arrested a suspect in Quebec as he was allegedly on his option to conduct a mass shooting at a Latest York Jewish centre.
In late 2023, the RCMP also broke up a suspected plot to attack a pro-Israel rally on Parliament Hill. Two minors who were allegedly inspired by ISIS have been charged with terrorism offences.
On Sunday, a 50-year-old and his 24-year-old son opened fire at a Jewish holiday celebration at Australia’s Bondi Beach. Fifteen died and dozens more were injured by the attackers, whom the report said had pledged allegiance to ISIS.
The ITAC report said the attack had no known links to Canada. Police have said they’d increase their presence in Canada’s Jewish communities.
“Further, it’s unlikely that this event in isolation will trigger an imminent domestic attack over the vacation period,” ITAC wrote. “Previous Canadian violent extremist attackers haven’t been driven to violence by international attacks or other similar incidents.”
The Canadian report said the victims in Australia’s mass shooting were likely targeted due to the “religious significance” of the event and the accessible nature of the location.
It categorized the incident as Religiously Motivated Violent Extremism, saying the attacker who survived was investigated for six months because of his ties to a gaggle of ISIS supporters.
“There’s also a sensible possibility that the inspiration for this attack and subsequent goal selection got here from the 7 October 2023 attack in Israel and/or follow-on impacts felt within the West,” it said.
The “current threat environment” includes several foiled attacks in addition to successful ones, increased propaganda from ISIS and Al Qaeda and Iranian-directed plots, in accordance with the report.
“These same conditions and drivers exist in Canada, to differing degrees, and it’s a sensible possibility that the Jewish community in Canada could possibly be targeted by a violent extremist actor or actors.”
At the identical time, white supremacists and accelerationists will likely seize on the attack in Australia to spread anti-immigrant narratives, ITAC wrote.
Stewart.Bell@globalnews.ca
© 2025 Global News, a division of Corus Entertainment Inc.