Luana Santos vs. Melissa Croden prediction, odds, pick for UFC Vegas 112

UFC Vegas 112: Brandon Royval vs. Manel Kape continues on the prelims with a fight between Luana Santos and Melissa Croden within the Women’s Bantamweight Division on Saturday. Check out our UFC odds series for our Santos-Croden prediction and pick.

Luana Santos (9-2) has rebounded impressively since her unanimous decision loss to Casey O’Neill at UFC 305 in August 2024. The 25-year-old submitted Tainara Lisboa via Americana in May 2025, showcasing her grappling prowess with dominant control time. As she comes into her fight this weekend against Melissa Croden.​

Melissa Croden (7-2) enters on a two-fight winning streak after her impressive UFC debut in October 2025. The 34-year-old Calgary native scored a third-round TKO over Tainara Lisboa via punches, following her knockout victory against Ashley Deen at LFA 195. As she comes into her fight this weekend against Luana Santos.​

Listed here are the UFC Vegas 112 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings. 

UFC Vegas 112 odds: Luana Santos-Melissa Croden odds

Luana Santos -130

Melissa Croden: +110

Over 2.5 rounds: -260

Under 2.5 rounds: +195

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Why Luana Santos will win

• Last Fight: (W) Tainara Lisboa – SUB R2
• Last 5: 4-1
• Finishes: 6 (1 KO/TKO/5 SUB)

Luana Santos’ superior grappling credentials give her the decisive advantage in Saturday’s bantamweight clash. The 25-year-old Brazilian possesses an 83% takedown accuracy and averages 1.91 takedowns per quarter-hour, a major edge over Croden’s limited defensive wrestling.​

Santos’ Brazilian jiu-jitsu pedigree from 011 MMA Team makes her lethal once the fight hits the mat. She submitted Tainara Lisboa in May with a keylock from mount, accumulating nearly eight minutes of control time in under 10 minutes of fighting. Her 42% submission finish rate speaks to her ground dominance.​

Croden’s defensive wrestling stays unproven against elite grapplers. While the Canadian pressures with volume striking—averaging 6.8 significant strikes per minute—her 66% takedown defense won’t delay against Santos’ relentless entries. Once Santos secures top position, Croden lacks the scrambling ability to flee.​

The important thing matchup advantage lies in Santos’ ability to neutralize Croden’s striking volume. By forcing clinch exchanges and threatening takedowns, Santos disrupts Croden’s rhythm and forces her to fight defensively. This tactical shift eliminates Croden’s primary weapon while playing directly into Santos’ submission game.​

Santos’ experience at bantamweight after her recent move from flyweight also aspects heavily. She looked comfortable and powerful against Lisboa at 135 kilos, displaying improved cardio and strength. As she comes into her fight this weekend against Melissa Croden, Santos’ grappling dominance should overwhelm the UFC newcomer and secure a second-round submission victory.​

Why Melissa Croden will win

• Last Fight: (W) Taina Lisboa – KO/TKO R3
• Last 5: 4-1
• Finishes: 7 (6 KO/TKO/1 SUB)

Croden’s path to victory starts along with her size and volume. At 5-foot-10 with a reach edge and a 7-2 record, she throws 6.8 significant strikes per minute at 56 percent accuracy, numbers that may overwhelm Santos at range if she keeps the fight standing.​

Her tape shows a clean, Muay Thai-rooted striking style with a stiff jab, sharp body kicks, and real knockout power, as evidenced by her stoppage of Tainara Lisboa in her UFC debut. When Croden dictates distance, opponents struggle to soundly cover the gap without eating counters.​

Santos’ grappling-heavy approach means she must cross Croden’s punching and kicking lanes to secure clinches and throws. Croden’s early takedown defense, plus her ability to punish level changes with uppercuts and knees, can discourage repeated entries and force Santos into an uncomfortable kickboxing match.​

If Croden maintains her pace while shoring up previous cardio concerns, the cumulative damage from long-range striking may begin to tell late. In that scenario, Croden’s power, volume and physicality give her a sensible path to either a press release TKO or a transparent decision over Santos at UFC Vegas 112.​

Final Luana Santos-Melissa Croden prediction & pick

Luana Santos vs. Melissa Croden profiles as a classic striker vs. grappler matchup, but Santos’ more complete game should carry her at UFC Vegas 112. Santos brings superior UFC experience, proven ending ability on the mat, and a method tailored to use Croden’s still-developing defensive grappling.

If Santos can navigate the early danger and get her entries going, her takedown chains and top control are prone to blunt Croden’s volume and power. Once on top, Santos’ methodical passing and submission hunting, particularly from mount and back control, match up well with a tall, long-framed striker who gives up leverage in scrambles.

Croden’s best probability is available in the opening rounds, using her height, reach, and high-output kickboxing to maintain Santos outside and punish level changes. Nonetheless, sustaining that pace while continually worrying in regards to the takedown is a taxing ask, and any slowdown gives Santos clearer reads on timing and entries.

Expect Santos to combine her striking simply enough to attract reactive counters from Croden, then level change underneath to secure takedowns against the fence. Over time, that pressure should wear on Croden’s base and cardio, resulting in prolonged control stretches and submission threats. The prediction is Luana Santos by submission in Round 2.

Final Luana Santos-Melissa Croden Prediction & Pick: Luana Santos (-130), Under 2.5 Rounds (+195)