Muhammad Naimov vs. Mairon Santos prediction, odds, pick for UFC 323

UFC 323: Merab Dvalishvili vs. Petr Yan 2 kicks off the prelims with a fight between Muhammad Naimov and Mairon Santos within the Featherweight Division on Saturday. Check out our UFC odds series for our Naimov-Santos prediction and pick.

Muhammad Naimov (13-3) enters UFC 323 with momentum, earning back-to-back unanimous decision wins over Bogdan Grad in June and Kaan Ofli in February following a troublesome submission loss to Felipe Lima. Naimov’s grinding style and improved wrestling have defined his recent performances as he comes into his fight this weekend against Mairon Santos.

Mairon Santos (16-1) rides a three-fight UFC streak, outpointing Sodiq Yusuff and Francis Marshall after blasting Kaan Ofli by second-round TKO. The 25-year-old volume striker continues to point out sharp boxing and sturdiness as he comes into his fight this weekend against Muhammad Naimov.

Listed here are the UFC 323 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings. 

UFC 323 odds: Muhammad Naimov-Mairon Santos odds

Muhammad Naimov: +215

Mairon Santos: -265

Over 2.5 rounds: -230

Under 2.5 rounds: +175

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Why Muhammad Naimov will win

• Last Fight: (W) Bogdan Grad – DEC
• Last 5: 4-1
• Finishes: 8 (5 KO/TKO/3 SUB)

Muhammad Naimov’s grinding style and well-rounded game give him multiple paths to beat Santos at UFC 323. His willingness to combine measured mixtures with clinch work and takedowns can disrupt Santos’ rhythm and keep the Brazilian from settling into his preferred long-range striking game.​

Defensively, Naimov has shown durability and composure against strong strikers, absorbing early shots before turning fights with pace and pressure. His ability to manage the middle, push Santos to the fence, and bank control time can sway the judges in what figures to be a competitive three-rounder.​

On the mat, Naimov’s edge becomes even clearer, as Santos is way more proven as a striker than as a grappler. If Naimov chains takedown attempts, rides top position, and forces Santos to work off his back, the physical and cardio tax should tilt later rounds in his favor.​

Even in prolonged stand-up exchanges, Naimov’s experience against higher-level opposition and his comfort in wild pockets give him knockout or knockdown upside. Combining that threat with regular output and opportunistic wrestling, Naimov is well-positioned to edge a choice or discover a late finish on Saturday night.​

Why Mairon Santos will win

• Last Fight: (W) Sodiq Yusuf – DEC
• Last 5: 4-1
• Finishes: 8 (8 KO/TKO)

Mairon Santos has the tools to outstrike and outwork Naimov over three rounds at UFC 323. The Brazilian’s sharp jab, varied mixtures, and brutal low kicks at distance make him the cleaner, more efficient striker, especially as Naimov marches forward seeking to close range.​

Statistically, Santos lands more significant strikes per minute with higher accuracy and defense, giving him a transparent volume edge in prolonged exchanges. If he maintains his footwork, uses his reach, and punishes entries with straight shots and counters, he can keep Naimov off-balance and piling up damage on the scorecards.​

Cardio and composure are other big benefits for Santos, who has already shown he can maintain output and poise in competitive decisions against durable opponents. Over fifteen minutes, that regular pace combined with disciplined defense could make Naimov’s wrestling bursts less effective because the fight wears on.​

While Naimov’s best path lies in grinding grappling, Santos’ takedown defense and skill to pop back up force the Tajik fighter to continuously work for control. Each reset back to striking range favors Santos’ cleaner boxing and heavier shots, organising a choice win or late stoppage on Saturday night.​

Final Muhammad Naimov-Mairon Santos prediction & pick

This matchup sets up as a classic striker vs grinder, and the margins look razor thin on paper. Santos brings the cleaner boxing and statistical edge in volume and accuracy, while Naimov leans on pressure, grit, and opportunistic wrestling to shut those gaps.​

Early, expect Santos to seek out success at range, jabbing and kicking as Naimov looks to time level changes and clinch entries. The query is whether or not Santos’ takedown defense and cardio can delay once Naimov starts forcing dirty exchanges and making this less of a technical kickboxing match.​

Over three rounds, Naimov’s ability to combine strikes into entries and chain takedown attempts can slowly tax Santos’ legs and output. Even when he cannot hold long stretches of top control, repeated mat returns and cage clinches can win optics with judges and blunt Santos’ power.​

Given his experience edge, proven durability, and more reliable wrestling, Naimov feels barely higher equipped to navigate adversity if the fight swings forwards and backwards. The lean is Muhammad Naimov by competitive decision after surviving some dicey stand-up moments and banking the grindy sequences that matter most to the judges.​

Final Muhammad Naimov-Mairon Santos Prediction & Pick: Muhammad Naimov (+215), Over 2.5 Rounds (-230)