With U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs forcing Canada to hunt other trading partners, Prime Minister Mark Carney’s visit to China is raising questions on whether some tariffs between Beijing and Ottawa could soon ease in what one expert is looking a “test” for where relations may go.
Canada’s rocky relationship with China has spanned several years, and pre-dates the worldwide trade war sparked by Trump’s tariffs.
But recent diplomatic tension, including the arbitrary detention of two Canadians in addition to the executions last 12 months of 4 Canadians by Beijing, coupled with pressure from the U.S. for allies to crack down on trade with China have spurred rounds of tariffs between Canada and China covering industries like agriculture and electric vehicles.
Carney’s trip comes just days after an Ipsos poll done exclusively for Global News found 54 per cent of Canadians support closer trade ties and economic agreements with China.
“This visit by Carney to China can be a test. It’s very sensitive. It’s to check the Canadian public, also to check the U.S. response,” says Howard Lin, a professor emeritus and the founding director of the Canada-China Institute for Business and Development at Toronto Metropolitan University.
Some experts suggest that these meetings are a method by Carney so as to add pressure on Trump to come back to the bargaining table and renew or negotiate a substitute for the Canada-United States-Mexico Trade Agreement (CUSMA), which is up for renegotiation this 12 months.
Trump said earlier this week “it wouldn’t matter to me” if the present trade deal were to run out.
Here’s a take a look at where things stand ahead of Carney’s meetings with Chinese leaders.
Why there are tariffs between Canada and China?
Relations between the 2 countries have been strained for nearly a decade.
Essentially the most recent chapter of strain began in 2018, during Trump’s first term, when the RCMP arrested then-Huawei CFO Meng Wanzhou in Vancouver on the behest of American authorities.
Canada has an extradition agreement with the U.S.
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On the time, Wanzhou was an executive on the China-based global telecommunications technology company and was wanted in america on international fraud charges.
About per week later, China arrested two Canadians, who became generally known as the 2 Michaels, and would later be held on widely condemned charges of espionage and held for several years in China.
“For the reason that two Michaels situation, there’s been trouble with trade to China. That was completely unacceptable, a diplomat was kidnapped. And so I’m not likely sure what’s modified. The identical individuals are in power, the identical economic conditions with China are still around,” says Kevin Bryan, an associate professor of strategic management on the University of Toronto.
“It’s not like we’re attempting to increase trade to Sweden. We’re attempting to increase trade to China, where we recently had serious economic espionage and serious geopolitical issues with that country.”
Carney has vowed to double non-U.S. exports over the following decade — and China is the world’s second-largest economy.
“For Canada, that is type of a realistic economic engagement, a reset. Now we have sectors like agriculture, that are really wanting to re-enter the Chinese market,” says Lin.
“China’s objective is somewhat bit different. I feel they might consider this visit as a strategic diplomatic win because on this political landscape, China desires to see they’re not totally isolated and thought of a responsible partner that could be talked with.”
What tariffs are in place now?
In October 2024, Canada began imposing a 100 per cent tariff on all imported electric and hybrid-electric vehicles produced in China, mirroring measures taken by the U.S. amid concerns about heavy Chinese subsidies and industrial dumping.
Canada also has a 25 per cent tariff on Chinese steel and aluminum over similar concerns.
China retaliated to those moves with duties of their very own. Shortly after Canada imposed those tariffs, China began investigating Canadian canola imports on similar claims of dumping.
Dumping within the context of exporting refers to when a business artificially lowers the worth of its products to be significantly lower than its own domestic pricing standards.
The idea is by doing this, one nation’s industry can undermine that of one other nation’s and make it difficult to compete with those products being imported.
In March 2025, China imposed a 100 per cent tariff on Canadian canola oil, canola meal and peas.
This was along with a 25 per cent tariff on Canadian pork and seafood products.
In August 2025, China also added a virtually 76 per cent tariff on canola seed.
China is the world’s largest importer of canola oil and canola products, with nearly all of it coming from Canada. The Canadian canola industry generates greater than $43 billion per 12 months and employs about 200,000 employees, which have been given some financial supports from the federal government within the interim.
Carney is being joined by Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe in China, as canola farmers from the Prairie province say they’re eager for some relief to their industry.
What could come from Carney’s meetings
Canola tariffs are widely expected to be among the many items on the agenda for the meetings.
But experts caution that Carney could have to supply some concessions to get any shifts from China.
Lin says it’s “almost guaranteed that China will reopen the agriculture market.”
“Western Canada is actually a powerful voice for a normalized relationship with China, and China will use that to argue that concession to be created from the Canadian side after which they’ll say, ‘what can we get?‘
“Perhaps we just export more oil, and even clean energy. The Chinese are really focused on electric cars, steel and aluminum, but these items are very sensitive.“
Dropping tariffs on Chinese EVs or steel and aluminum might be politically difficult, given U.S. give attention to those industries and the push from the administration for countries to crack down.
America, and Trump himself will likely be paying close attention, and Bryan says “there’s a risk” that whatever comes from these meetings may affect the long run of CUSMA.
There should be other ways for Carney to construct a bridge with Beijing.
Chinese media also suggested this week that in an effort to mend ties between Canada and China, Canada might want to represent itself independently from the U.S.
Lin says Carney and his team should be “cautious” at these meetings given the stakes.
“It’s type of interesting that President Trump seems to have an American-only type of attitude recently. He even said the trade agreement between the U.S., Canada and Mexico, ‘I don’t now if that matters’ or something. So, I feel he has his own plan,” says Lin.
“I feel Carney must be cautious to say what we’ve got to say, because Canada still has a disagreement on the opposite front.”