Dustin Poirier is convinced that Justin Gaethje possesses the tools to perform what oddsmakers view because the unthinkable at UFC 324: handing Paddy Pimblett his first UFC loss. The legendary interim lightweight champion didn’t merely pick Gaethje to win Saturday’s important event at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas—he believes “The Highlight” will finish “The Baddy” emphatically.
✅Dustin Poirier predicts Justin Gaethje will finish Paddy Pimblett
“Justin is just a much bigger puncher, and he’ll put himself in harm’s solution to land one among those shots
Paddy’s a great fighter, but I haven’t seen him beat anyone— but I believe Justin stops him.”
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Speaking on “The Ariel Helwani Show,” Poirier broke down the stylistic benefits that separate the 26-5 fighter from the undefeated Pimblett. The crux of his evaluation hinges on something Gaethje possesses that Pimblett has never truly faced: championship-caliber experience in grinding, elite-level battles. “I just think he’s been in those 25-minute fights. He’s been in dogfights before,” Poirier explained. “I believe Paddy’s gonna have a troublesome time stopping him on the feet, and I do not think Paddy’s gonna give you the option to get him down.”
This assessment cuts to the guts of the matchup. Gaethje has competed at the very best echelon of lightweight competition, trading leather with Khabib Nurmagomedov, Dustin himself, Charles Oliveira, and Max Holloway — fighters who’ve tested his durability and ring IQ in ways few others have. Pimblett, conversely, arrives at this interim title bout riding a nine-fight UFC winning streak without having faced opposition of Gaethje’s caliber. His recent victory over Michael Chandler, while impressive on paper, carries less weight in Poirier’s estimation. The query becomes: can elite-level experience transcend right into a decisive advantage against a clumsy grappler in Pimblett?
The grappling chess match will prove crucial. Poirier is bullish on Gaethje’s striking prowess and confidence, noting that “The Highlight” is solely “a much bigger puncher” willing to soak up damage to land his own shots. For Pimblett to secure victory, he’ll require perfect execution across five rounds—maintaining distance, timing his entries methodically, and executing his signature takedowns against a fighter who possesses solid defensive wrestling fundamentals. Sustaining that level of discipline for 25 minutes against an opponent comfortable in high-volume striking exchanges represents an unlimited undertaking.
Poirier’s conviction runs so deep that he plans to wager on a Gaethje knockout finish. “Yeah, I believe that Justin stops him,” the retired champion stated. “Now and again I partake in sports betting. I’m definitely gonna partake in that. Yeah, I’m going with Gaethje by knockout.”
While Pimblett enters the bout because the betting favorite with -230 odds with significant betting market support despite his lack of resume. Poirier’s many years of experience fighting the game’s elite—including multiple encounters with Gaethje himself—lend credibility to his contrarian take. Whether Pimblett can prove the legend mistaken Saturday night stays one among combat sports’ most compelling questions heading into UFC 324.