Justin Gaethje vs. Paddy Pimblett prediction, odds, pick for UFC 324

UFC 324: Justin Gaethje vs. Paddy Pimblett continues on the predominant card with the predominant event between Justin Gaethje and Paddy Pimblett for the interim UFC Lightweight Championship on Saturday. Take a look at our UFC odds series for our Gaethje-Pimblett prediction and pick.

Justin Gaethje (26-5) rebounded from his brutal last-second BMF knockout loss to Max Holloway at UFC 300 with a gritty unanimous decision win over Rafael Fiziev of their 2025 rematch, reaffirming his elite lightweight status as he comes into his fight this weekend against Paddy Pimblett.​

Paddy Pimblett (23-3) rides a seven-fight surge, surging into contention after stopping Michael Chandler with third-round elbows at UFC 314 and previously submitting King Green and outworking Tony Ferguson. The surging Scouser brings undefeated UFC momentum as he comes into his fight this weekend against Justin Gaethje.

Listed below are the UFC 324 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings. 

UFC 324 odds: Justin Gaethje-Paddy Pimblett odds

Justin Gaethje: +195

Paddy Pimblett: -238

Over 2.5 rounds: -110

Under 2.5 rounds: -110

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Why Justin Gaethje will win

• Last Fight: (W) Rafael Fiziev – DEC
• Last 5: 3-2
• Finishes: 21 (19 KO/TKO/2 SUB)

Justin Gaethje can beat Paddy Pimblett by weaponizing experience and attritional violence in a way Pimblett has never faced. Gaethje’s elite low kicks, pressure boxing and sturdiness punish upright, hittable strikers who need rhythm and space.​

Gaethje’s 6.59 SLpM and proven leg-kick system are designed to cripple movement and force desperate entries. Against an aggressive but defensively porous Pimblett, which means prolonged exchanges where Gaethje’s power and combos land cleaner, earlier and more often.​

Pimblett’s best path is dragging Gaethje into wild scrambles where his 1.7 submissions per quarter-hour can matter. Nevertheless, Gaethje’s 68% takedown defense and robust balance make sustained control difficult, especially while compromised by leg damage.​

Over three rounds, that dynamic favors Gaethje imposing his pace, chopping the legs, and forcing Paddy into increasingly slower, riskier entries. In that scenario, Gaethje’s power, accuracy and body of elite opposition suggest either a late TKO or a transparent decision on damage.​​

Why Paddy Pimblett will win

• Last Fight: (W) Michael Chandler – KO?TKO R3
• Last 5: 5-0
• Finishes: 19 (8 KO/TKO/11 SUB)

Paddy Pimblett can beat Justin Gaethje by turning this right into a cardio and scramble-heavy fight quite than a classic Gaethje brawl. Pimblett throws over 5 significant strikes per minute with 50%+ accuracy, which allows him to attain while forcing Gaethje to work defensively.​

More importantly, Pimblett’s 10 profession submissions and transition-heavy grappling give him a transparent edge once the fight hits the mat. Gaethje has been finished by submission twice in his five profession losses, and prolonged scrambles could expose that vulnerability again.​

If Pimblett uses his three-inch reach advantage, long kicks and jabs to attract out Gaethje’s counters, he can create chaotic clinch entries on his terms. From there, he thrives in rolling exchanges where guillotines, back-takes and triangles materialize in broken scrambles.​

That style also taxes Gaethje’s gas tank, especially if leg-kick trades turn into prolonged grappling sequences as an alternative of regular pressure boxing. Over three rounds, Pimblett’s momentum, ending instincts on the mat and talent to steal swings of offense in scrambles could produce either a late submission or a choice built on control.​​

Final Justin Gaethje-Paddy Pimblett prediction & pick

The lean here is barely toward Justin Gaethje in a chaotic, high-damage fight. Paddy Pimblett enters because the betting favorite on the strength of his seven-fight UFC streak and submission threat, yet his defensive gaps remain a serious concern against this level of puncher.​

Gaethje’s punishing low kicks, higher-end one-shot power, and experience in five-round wars with champions suggest he is best suited to win the decisive moments when each men are hurt. Pimblett’s chin-up entries and willingness to brawl within the pocket create precisely the exchanges where Gaethje has historically thrived.​

Pimblett’s clearest path is to survive the early storm, force Gaethje into prolonged scrambles and hunt the back once leg-kick pressure overextends him. Nevertheless, Gaethje’s 75% takedown defense and robust balance mean Pimblett likely has to eat serious damage simply to get those looks consistently.​

Expect wild momentum swings, but Gaethje’s attritional kicks and cleaner power shots should accumulate visible damage first. The prediction is Justin Gaethje by late TKO or a choice built on leg destruction and heavier moments, in a fight that also gives Pimblett flashes of success.​

Final Justin Gaethje-Paddy Pimblett Prediction & Pick: Justin Gaethje (+195), Over 2.5 Rounds (-110)