The phrase “House of Cards” is commonly linked today with a well-liked Netflix political series, but its original meaning describes something way more literal: a structure that may collapse easily. That concept is precisely how Sarah Thiele, formerly a PhD student on the University of British Columbia and now a researcher at Princeton, and her colleagues characterize today’s massive satellite networks. In a brand new paper available as a pre print on arXiv, they argue that modern satellite mega constellations rest on an unstable foundation.
Their reasoning is backed by striking numbers. Across all Low Earth Orbit mega constellations, satellites pass dangerously close to 1 one other with surprising frequency. A “close approach,” defined as two satellites coming inside lower than 1km of one another, happens about once every 22 seconds. Throughout the Starlink network alone, this happens roughly every 11 minutes. To avoid collisions, each Starlink satellite must perform a mean of 41 course corrections yearly.
When Rare Events Turn out to be Serious Risks
At first glance, this constant maneuvering might sound like proof that the system is working as intended. Engineers, nonetheless, know that failures often come from unusual situations fairly than on a regular basis operations. These rare scenarios, often called “edge cases,” can expose weaknesses that routine conditions never reveal. Based on the study, solar storms are one such scenario that poses a serious threat to satellite mega constellations.
Solar storms typically disrupt satellites in two fundamental ways.
How Solar Storms Disrupt Satellites
The primary effect is atmospheric heating. When a solar storm hits Earth, it causes the upper atmosphere to expand and thicken, increasing drag on satellites. This added resistance forces satellites to burn more fuel just to remain in orbit and raises uncertainty about their precise positions. In consequence, satellites must perform additional avoidance maneuvers to forestall collisions. Through the “Gannon Storm” of May 2024 (which, unfortunately, appears to not be named after the Zelda villain), greater than half of all satellites in LEO were forced to expend fuel on these adjustments.
The second effect could be much more damaging. Solar storms can interfere with or disable satellite navigation and communication systems altogether. When that happens, satellites could also be unable to reply to threats of their path. Combined with higher atmospheric drag and increased uncertainty, this lack of control could quickly result in a serious accident.
Measuring the Speed of Disaster
Probably the most widely known final result of widespread satellite collisions is Kessler syndrome. On this scenario, debris from collisions accumulates around Earth, making it nearly not possible to launch spacecraft without them being destroyed. While Kessler syndrome unfolds over a long time, the researchers wanted to indicate how quickly a crisis could begin. To do that, they introduced a brand new measurement called the Collision Realization and Significant Harm (CRASH) Clock.
Using this metric, the authors calculated that as of June 2025, an entire lack of command over satellite avoidance maneuvers would end in a catastrophic collision in about 2.8 days. In contrast, similar conditions in 2018, before the rise of mega constellations, would have allowed roughly 121 days before such a collision occurred. The danger becomes much more alarming over shorter periods. Losing control for just 24 hours carries a 30% likelihood of a serious collision that would kick off the long chain response resulting in Kessler syndrome.
Little Warning and Few Options
One of the crucial troubling points of solar storms is how little notice they supply. In lots of cases, warnings come only a day or two prematurely. Even with that notice, there are limited actions operators can take beyond attempting to protect vulnerable systems. Solar storms create a rapidly changing atmospheric environment that requires constant, real time monitoring and control. If that real time control is lost, the paper suggests there could also be only a number of days to revive it before your complete system collapses.
This concern shouldn’t be hypothetical. The 2024 Gannon Storm was the strongest solar storm in a long time, however it was not probably the most powerful on record. That distinction belongs to the Carrington Event of 1859. If a storm of comparable strength occurred today, it could disrupt satellite control for much longer than three days. A single event like this, which has already happened once in recorded history, could severely damage global satellite infrastructure and confine humanity to Earth for the foreseeable future.
Weighing the Risks of a Connected Sky
Few readers would welcome a future cut off from space. While satellite mega constellations offer enormous technological advantages, in addition they introduce serious long run risks. A practical understanding of those dangers is important. When the potential final result includes losing access to space for generations resulting from one extreme solar storm, informed decision making becomes critical. This research provides a clearer picture of what’s at stake and why the risks can now not be ignored.