Donald Trump has issued mounting threats to Iran in a bid to barter with the country, and has moved an ‘Armada’ of US ships nearby.
America has moved the usAbraham Lincoln and several other guided missile destroyers into the region, which could be used to launch attacks from the ocean.
Within the last month, 1000’s of protesters within the country were killed during a bloody crackdown by government forces.
In response, Trump and his national security team have been weighing a variety of potential responses against Iran, including cyber-attacks and direct strikes by the US or Israel.
But when he were to launch strikes against Iran, Trump, who says he’s taking a look at some ‘strong military options’, could see his actions backfire – as most Iranians are against any US intervention, in response to a world security expert.
Here’s all that you must find out about what could occur in Iran, and why Trump is getting involved.
Trump wants Iran to be more ‘pro-Western’
Dr Dafydd Townley, senior teaching fellow in International Security on the University of Portsmouth, said Trump sees Iran as a serious destabilising consider the Middle East, which could explain his desire to become involved.
‘He actually desires to have a more pro-Western or Western-leaning government in place,’ Dr Townley said. ‘But it surely could also be more useful to the USA to pursue non-military interventions, resembling technological or diplomatic support for the protesters.
‘There may be a major risk of pushing people to unite in Iran against an existential threat like the USA.
‘In the mean time, I don’t think anyone there views the U.S. as an ally, and military motion will not be going to vary that.’
Trump is ’emboldened’ after Maduro’s capture
Dr Townley suggested the administration may very well be ‘emboldened’ by the success of capturing Nicolas Maduro, but they need to proceed with caution on the subject of Iran.
‘There is a big difference between a covert Special Forces operation to kidnap a person and conducting strikes in Iran. Trump has said they’re “locked and loaded,” but able to do what, exactly?
‘It is sort of interesting that Trump, who has been very reluctant to become involved in international causes before, has suddenly turn out to be very vocal over the past two months.
‘Getting involved in Iran won’t bolster his domestic support amongst MAGA Republicans.’
US strikes could empower the Iranian government
Dr Andreas Krieg, associate professor within the Department of Defence Studies at King’s College London, told Metro that if Trump decides to strike Iran, it could allow Iranian forces to clamp down on anyone supporting US intervention.
‘This might include wider lethal force, more arrests, and deeper information control,’ he said.
‘That said, strikes don’t mechanically strengthen the regime. If the general public perceives U.S. motion as targeted and punitive against coercive organs relatively than society at large, the “existential threat” narrative may not translate into durable rally-around-the-flag effects.’
Dr Arshin Adib-Moghaddam argues: ‘The more the Trump administration and, specifically, Benjamin Netanyahu endorse the demonstrations in Iran, the more securitised the situation will turn out to be.
‘Nonetheless, I don’t think the IRGC or another organ of the Iranian state considers these demonstrations an “existential threat”. Neither do I consider that they need an excuse to quell them with violence, if essential.’
Could US strikes cause the regime to collapse?
Dr Anahita Motazedrad, a visiting Senior Fellow in International Relations at LSE, told Metro the Islamic Republic is already behaving as if its grip on power is slipping.
She added: ‘A crackdown is in full force no matter external threats. They don’t need a brand new “existential threat” narrative to justify repression; they’ve already committed to it.
‘At the identical time, their capability to suppress dissent is more strained than it appears… the regime is internally vulnerable. Against this backdrop — and amid a nationwide rebellion — limited US pre‑emptive strikes are unlikely to unify the regime.
‘As an alternative, they may deepen perceptions of weakness, widen internal fractures, and potentially speed up the erosion of the IRGC’s control relatively than strengthen it.’
Even with historic protests over inflation, currency collapse, shortages, and perceived corruption in Iran, ‘collapse’ of the regime requires greater than hardship, Dr Krieg argues.
‘It requires fractures inside coercive pillars or elite defection dynamics that deprive the system of enforcement capability. At present, the IRGC appears cohesive, even when overstretched.’
Given the IRGC’s apparent strength, it seems more likely that the civilian governance would lose credibility within the aftermath of those protests, leaving the safety sector as one in every of the one reliable parts of presidency, Dr Krieg said.
‘The leadership would likely default to repression and data control to maintain its base intact,’ he explained.
Even when the regime were to collapse consequently of those protests or potential strikes from the US, the world isn’t prepared for the ability vacuum it would go away, he said.
‘The most important danger will not be only chaos in Tehran, but fragmentation within the provinces, score-settling amongst armed actors, and a scramble over strategic assets and prisons.’
What could US involvement mean after a regime collapse?
Dr Motazedrad told Metro that if the regime is toppled, the international community – and the US – wouldn’t wish to see the post-intervention chaos seen in countries like Libya and Iraq.
She explained: ‘That’s why the main target is already on immediate diplomatic coordination, support for an Iranian‑led transitional process, and clear limits on external involvement.
‘The essential point is that Iranians themselves, not foreign powers, must shape the post‑regime landscape.’
Many Iranians have expressed fears that what happened in 1953 could occur again – a Western-backed coup, just like the one orchestrated within the 50s by the US and UK, could leave many Iranians with out a say of their future.
Dr. Arshin Adib-Moghaddam, Professor in Global Thought and Comparative Philosophies on the University of London, said the coup which ousted Iran’s first democratically elected President is a trauma.
He added: ‘Nonetheless, the rhetoric of “freedom” is basically discredited by the undeniable fact that US foreign policy within the region and beyond has never been geared to democracy and human rights.
‘Nearly all of Iranians distrust Netanyahu and Trump specifically, due to the brutality of their policies in Gaza and the hypocrisy surrounding “human rights” in Western foreign policy discourse that the relative silence concerning the every day killing of Palestinians reveals.’
Dr Bamo Nouri, a professor in International Relations on the University of West London, agrees.
‘When combined with newer regional experiences – Afghanistan, Iraq, and Syria – the result’s a deep scepticism toward Western intervention,’ he explained.
‘On this context, it’s entirely plausible that Iran’s protest movement may deliberately distance itself from Western support – not out of hostility, but as a protective measure to preserve legitimacy and avoid being recast as a foreign-engineered project.’
If the regime is overthrown through these protests, Dr Nouri said a ‘precarious’ power vacuum would form.
‘The world is emerging from a pandemic, facing ongoing war in Ukraine, inflationary pressures, debt crises, and political fragmentation across the US and Europe,’ he said.
‘This will not be 2003 -there is little public appetite or financial capability for large-scale reconstruction or prolonged intervention. With out a credible, indigenous transition process, the chance will not be democratic renewal, but fragmentation, instability, and a repeat of the post-intervention chaos seen elsewhere.’
Get in contact with our news team by emailing us at webnews@metro.co.uk.
For more stories like this, check our news page.
MORE: Nicki Minaj fans ‘feel abandoned’ after rapper becomes Donald Trump’s primary fan
MORE: Aer Lingus cancels all long-haul flights from major UK airport – even when pre-booked
MORE: Boy detained by ICE ‘is ailing and keeps asking about his backpack and hat’