Alexander Volkanovski vs. Diego Lopes 2 prediction, odds, pick for UFC 325

The time has finally come for the headlining bout at UFC 325 as we bring you our prediction for this Featherweight Championship rematch. Australia’s favorite son and Champion Alexander Volkanovski takes on No. 2 Diego Lopes of Mexico of their long-awaited rematch. Check our UFC odds series for the Volkanovski-Lopes prediction and pick.

Alexander Volkanovski (27-4) is 14-3 since 2017 throughout his legendary UFC tenure. After back-to-back losses against Ilia Topuria and Islam Makhachev, he regained the vacant featherweight belt over Lopes back in April 2025. He is available in the short favorite during this rematch, standing 5-foot-6 with a 71.5-inch reach.

Diego Lopes (27-7) has gone 6-2 contained in the UFC since 2023 during his blazing run through the division. After falling to Volkanovski, Lopes secured all of the bonuses with a spinning elbow KO over Jean Silva his last trip. He looks to exact his title aspirations with one other probability against his rival. Lopes stands 5-foot-11 with a 72.5-inch reach.

Listed here are the UFC 325 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings. 

UFC 325 Odds: Alexander Volkanovski-Diego Lopes 2 Odds

Alexander Volkanovski: -148

Diego Lopes: +124

Over 4.5 rounds: -115

Under 4.5 rounds: -115

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Why Alexander Volkanovski Will Win

• Last Fight: (W) Diego Lopes – U DEC
• Last 5: 3-2
• Finishes: 13 KO/TKO, 3 SUB

Many fans and experts alike thought Alexander Volkanovski could also be past his prime after losing to the brand new crop of incoming talent like Islam Makhachev and Ilia Topuria. Nonetheless, each of those fights were challenges for Volk knowing the chances were stacked against him. In returning to capture the vacant featherweight belt, Volkanovski in prime shape and turned in a vintage performance harking back to his championship run. We all know the motivated competitor he’s been throughout his profession, so expect the most effective version of him heading into this legacy fight.

Volkanovski is a master of timing and distance control, popping his jabs to disrupt his opponents’ rhythm while continually remaining busy along with his foot movement. Not only is he hard to pinpoint for opposing strikers, but he’s one among the higher boxers in his own right, all supported by his world-class grappling.

We have seen Volkanovski fight his way out of tight submissions up to now, but it surely’s all the time dangerous working against someone with the skill level of Diego Lopes. Volkanovski’s game plan during their first meeting worked to perfection and although Lopes is anticipated to make several improvements, the Australia’s preparation and skill to regulate in-fight are the rationale he’s holding onto his belt once more.

Why Diego Lopes Will Win

• Last Fight: (W) Jean Silva – KO (spinning elbow, R2)
• Last 5: 4-1
• Finishes: 11 KO/TKO, 12 SUB

Diego Lopes’ loss to Alexander Volkanovski during his first title opportunity needed to have been an enormous gut punch for the rising star out of Mexico, but losing to a multiple-time champion like Volkanovski is nothing to scoff at. Moreover, his knockout over a red-hot Jean Silva only proved that he’s levels above the competition, intent on taking advantage of this second opportunity as it could be difficult to earn a 3rd.

Lopes is arguably the most effective jiu jitsu practitioner within the division and his ability to make use of his closed guard as a threat seriously changes the approach his opponents must take when coping with him. Despite all this, Lopes is desirous to stand and strike with a few of the most effective on the planet along with his own skills evolving before our very eyes.

Lopes’ last fight proved that he can put away a dangerous opponent with perfect timing without suffering much damage. His damage against Volkanovski in the course of the first fight accrued over the course of 5 rounds, but don’t expect him to attend that long until aggressively opening up his striking and chasing the knockout.

Final Alexander Volkanovski-Diego Lopes 2 Prediction & Pick

This meeting must be even tighter than the primary fight given Lopes’ exposure to Volkanovski’s timing and fight rhythm. Knowing that he struggled to get many clean shots on Volk his last trip, Lopes can have to get creative along with his approach and offer a brand new look along with his grappling.

Volkanovski will likely have already game planned for anything Lopes may throw at him, but he’ll also need to be defensively minded over five rounds to avoid any surprises.

I expect Diego Lopes to be rather more of a threat in trying for submissions throughout this bout, but Volkanovski could also be too strong along with his top pressure and ground-and-pound for Lopes to grab anything meaningful. This must be one other five-round effort for the present champ and if he’s in a position to win, do not be surprised if he entertains retirement and ending his profession in Australia on a high note.

Final Alexander Volkanovski-Diego Lopes 2 Prediction & Pick: Alexander Volkanovski (-148); OVER 4.5 Rounds (-115)