Rafael Fiziev vs. Mauricio Ruffy prediction, odds, pick for UFC 325

UFC 325: Alexander Volkanovski vs. Diego Lopes 2 continues on the primary card with a bout between Rafael Fiziev and Mauricio Ruffy within the lightweight division on Saturday. Take a look at our UFC odds series for our Fiziev-Ruffy prediction and pick.

Rafael Fiziev (13-4) rebounded from a brutal decision loss to Justin Gaethje at UFC 313 with a composed unanimous-decision win over Ignacio Bahamondes, showcasing sharper defense and cleaner counters to regular his momentum as he comes into his fight this weekend against Mauricio Ruffy.

Mauricio Ruffy (12-2) enters off a setback to Benoit Saint-Denis, submitted in round two after 4 straight wins, including an announcement KO over King Green and a blistering first-round finish of Jamie Mullarkey, underscoring his explosive “One Shot” power as he comes into his fight this weekend against Rafael Fiziev.

Listed below are the UFC 325 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings. 

UFC 325 odds: Rafael Fiziev-Mauricio Ruffy odds

Rafael Fiziev: +102

Mauricio Ruffy: -122

Over 2.5 rounds: -180

Under 2.5 rounds: +140

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Why Rafael Fiziev will win

• Last Fight: (W) – Ignaico Bahaomendes (DEC)
• Last 5: 2-3
• Finishes: 9 (8 KO/TKO/1 SUB)

Rafael Fiziev is the more polished, defensively sound striker, and that technical edge should carry him in what projects as mostly a stand-up fight. He keeps a high guard, throws tight mixtures and punishing body kicks, and barely gives opponents the form of clean, prolonged exchanges Ruffy needs.

Ruffy thrives in chaos, swinging with explosive power and wide, creative entries, but that style leaves gaps that a counter-striker like Fiziev can exploit. Over three rounds, Fiziev’s superior shot selection, conditioning, and talent to administer range and tempo favor him edging nearly all of moments, likely winning a measured decision while largely avoiding Ruffy’s single-shot knockout threats.

Why Mauricio Ruffy will win

• Last Fight: (L) Benoit Saint-Denis – SUB R2 
• Last 5: 4-1
• Finishes: 11 (11 KO/TKO)

Mauricio Ruffy brings the form of volatility that may crack a technician like Fiziev, especially in a pure striking battle. His unorthodox entries, stance switches, and willingness to create chaos can disrupt Fiziev’s rhythm and force exchanges at angles where traditional Muay Thai defenses struggle.

Ruffy’s one-shot power is the last word equalizer here. With highlight-reel spinning kick knockouts and multiple first-round finishes on his résumé, he needs far fewer clean connections to alter a fight than Fiziev does over quarter-hour.

We’ve also seen Fiziev touched and hurt in prolonged striking battles, and his defensive numbers show he’s willing to depend on pocket exchanges and reflexes quite than risk-averse range management. Against someone who thrives when things get wild, those pocket exchanges turn into dangerous opportunities for counters and momentum swings.

Final Rafael Fiziev-Mauricio Ruffy prediction & pick

Rafael Fiziev vs. Mauricio Ruffy profiles as a high-level, high-variance striking fight where each can do serious damage, but their paths to victory look different. On paper, Fiziev holds the sting in experience against elite lightweights and owns a proven five-round gas tank and layered Muay Thai game that may carry minutes, if not moments.

Ruffy, meanwhile, brings superior size, length and arguably the more fight-ending one-shot power, with a big share of his wins coming by knockout and lots of contained in the first round. His 57 percent significant striking accuracy and willingness to sit down down on counters mean any prolonged exchange carries real jeopardy for Fiziev, who has been touched and hurt in wild firefights before.

Over three rounds, the pick leans barely toward Fiziev to survive those pockets of danger and win the minutes with tighter defense, higher shot selection and more reliable cardio. Expect him to chip away with body kicks, punish Ruffy’s wide entries, and bank rounds even when there are just a few scares along the best way.

Final Rafael Fiziev-Mauricio Ruffy Prediction & Pick: Rafael Fiziev (+102), Over 2.5 Rounds (-180)