President Donald Trump’s claim that India has agreed to stop buying Russian oil has sparked immediate pushback from Moscow and raised fresh questions on how far Recent Delhi is willing to go in aligning its energy policy with Washington.
A day after Trump announced what he described as a breakthrough U.S.-India trade and energy agreement, the Kremlin made clear it had received no formal indication from India that Russian oil shipments were about to finish. Russian officials framed the situation as political rhetoric somewhat than a binding shift in global energy flows.
“We haven’t heard any statements from Delhi on this matter yet,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said, in keeping with comments reported by RIA Novosti.
“We respect bilateral U.S.-Indian relations,” Peskov told reporters. “But we attach no less importance to the event of a complicated strategic partnership between Russia and India.”
“That is an important thing for us, and we intend to further develop our bilateral relations with Delhi,” he added.
The remarks highlight the widening gap between U.S. messaging and on-the-ground energy realities, especially with regards to India’s role as one in every of the world’s largest crude oil importers and a key buyer of discounted Russian barrels for the reason that start of the Ukraine war in 2022.
Trump’s Announcement and the Trade Angle
Trump revealed the alleged agreement in a post on Truth Social, saying it followed a phone call with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
“We spoke about many things, including Trade, and ending the War with Russia and Ukraine,” Trump wrote. “He agreed to stop buying Russian Oil, and to purchase way more from america and, potentially, Venezuela.”
As a part of the broader deal, Trump said the U.S. would scale back India’s primary tariff rate from 25 percent to 18 percent and eliminate a further 25 percent penalty tariff that had been imposed last summer in response to India’s Russian oil purchases.
Modi confirmed that a trade agreement had been reached but stopped in need of addressing Russian oil directly. In a post on X, he said he was “delighted that Made in India products will now have a reduced tariff of 18%.”
The absence of any explicit mention of Russian crude in Modi’s public comments immediately fueled skepticism amongst analysts and diplomats who follow India’s energy and foreign policy closely.
Moscow Plays It Cool
Russian officials hurried to downplay the potential fallout. Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, a former energy minister, suggested that statements made in Washington had not yet translated into concrete motion.
“We’re only seeing public statements. We’ll see how the situation develops,” Novak told reporters, in keeping with comments carried by TASS.
“But overall, our energy resource is in demand; we see this often. Supply will all the time find demand, since the balance is maintained,” he added.
For Russia, India has turn into a necessary outlet for crude exports after Western sanctions sharply reduced sales to Europe. Indian refiners stepped in to buy Russian oil at steep discounts, reshaping global energy trade flows and helping Moscow maintain export volumes despite sanctions pressure.
That history makes an abrupt and complete cutoff unlikely, in keeping with most energy analysts.
Why Analysts Doubt a Clean Break
While India has adjusted its energy imports in response to U.S. pressure, experts say the thought of Recent Delhi publicly committing to zero Russian oil purchases runs counter to each economic reality and long-standing foreign policy principles.
“I even have a tough time believing the federal government of India will make any Russian oil-related commitment explicit,” said Evan A. Feigenbaum, vp for studies on the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, in an evaluation published Tuesday.
“In any case, India has deep historical and nostalgic ties to Russia that it’ll not simply ditch under American pressure,” he wrote.
Feigenbaum added that maintaining ambiguity is itself a strategic selection.
“Maintaining the symbolic hedge that it could purchase Russian oil if it so chooses speaks each to Indian foreign policy autonomy and to its ability to withstand American coercion, each of that are necessary aspects in India’s domestic politics.”
He noted that while India has step by step reduced its dependence on Russian crude in recent months, openly rebuking Moscow stays politically unviable for Modi.
“Publicly rebuking Russia was all the time a nonstarter,” Feigenbaum said, arguing that Modi “can sick afford to humiliate one in every of India’s most significant defense partners.”
The Economic Reality for India
Beyond geopolitics, the economics of energy loom large. India imports greater than 80 percent of its oil needs, making access to inexpensive crude a core pillar of economic stability.
Russian oil, sold at discounts following Western sanctions, has helped Indian refiners control costs and shield consumers from higher fuel prices. A sudden move away from Russian supply would likely push India toward dearer alternatives, raising inflation risks at home.
Moody’s Rankings echoed that concern, saying India was unlikely to desert Russian oil entirely as a consequence of the economic consequences.
“Although India has reduced its purchase of crude oil from Russia in recent months, it’s unlikely to stop all purchases immediately which may very well be disruptive to India’s economic growth,” the agency said in a note Tuesday.
“A whole shift toward non-Russian oil could also tighten supply elsewhere, raise prices and go through to higher inflation on condition that India is one in every of the world’s largest oil importers.”
For investors, that warning matters. India’s manufacturing sector, consumer spending, and currency stability are all sensitive to energy costs. Higher oil prices could ripple through emerging market equities and global supply chains.
Walking the Geopolitical Tightrope
India’s challenge will not be selecting between Washington and Moscow but balancing each without alienating either.
“For India, the Russia query stays,” said Farwa Aamer, director of South Asia Initiatives on the Asia Society Policy Institute, in emailed comments.
“Although it has and can change its oil import structure away from Russia, India would still need to keep relations regular. It’ll be a balancing act obviously as India navigates these two crucial relationships concurrently.”
That balancing act has turn into more delicate as U.S.-India trade ties deepen and Washington pushes allies to further isolate Moscow economically.
Why This Matters for Markets and Investors
This episode underscores a broader truth about global energy markets in 2026: political statements often move prices before policies ever do.
Oil traders, refiners, and investors are watching India closely because even marginal shifts in its import behavior can influence global supply and pricing dynamics. India is now one in every of the biggest swing buyers within the crude market.
If India reduces Russian purchases incrementally somewhat than abruptly, the impact on global oil prices could also be muted. If it were to exit Russian supply entirely, prices could spike, especially if alternative supplies tighten elsewhere.
For U.S. energy producers, Trump’s comments also signal continued efforts to redirect global demand toward American oil and gas exports. Increased Indian purchases of U.S. crude would support domestic producers and shipping volumes but would require pricing and logistical incentives to compete with discounted Russian barrels.
The Bottom Line
Trump’s announcement highlights the growing use of trade and tariffs as tools to influence global energy flows. But Moscow’s response and expert skepticism suggest reality is more complex.
India is unlikely to make sweeping public commitments on Russian oil. As an alternative, it’ll proceed to regulate quietly, preserving flexibility, controlling costs, and avoiding dramatic geopolitical ruptures.
For investors, the takeaway is obvious: watch actions, not headlines. Energy markets are shaped by incentives, not declarations, and India’s next moves will matter excess of any single post on social media.