Alex Morono vs. Daniil Donchenko prediction, odds, pick for UFC Vegas 113

UFC Vegas 113: Mario Bautista vs. Vinicius Oliveira continues on the prelims with a bout between Alex Morono and Daniil Donchenko within the welterweight division on Saturday. Take a look at our UFC odds series for our Morono-Donchenko prediction and pick.

Alex Morono (24-12) enters on a three-fight skid, coming off a brutal first-round knockout loss to Carlos Leal after a razor-close split-decision setback to Daniel Rodriguez, which followed a workmanlike points win over Niko Price. The veteran technician still relies on volume boxing and sturdiness as he enters his fight this weekend against Doniil Donchenko.

Daniil Donchenko (12-2) storms in after blasting Rodrigo Sezinando to win TUF 33 and previously outworking Rustem Kudaibergenov over five rounds in Naiza FC. The high‑volume Ukrainian pressure fighter leans on pace, boxing combos, and finishes as he comes into his fight this weekend against Alex Morono.

Listed here are the UFC Vegas 113 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings. 

UFC Vegas 113 odds: Alex Morono-Daniil Donchenko odds

Alex Morono: +455

Daniil Donchenko: -625

Over 1.5 rounds: +105

Under 1.5 rounds: -135 

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Why Alex Morono will win

• Last Fight: (L) Carlos Leal – KO/TKO R1 
• Last 5: 1-4
• Finishes: 13 (6 KO/TKO/7 SUB)

Alex Morono’s clearest edge is experience and craft. With nearly 40 pro fights and an extended UFC tenure, he’s seen nearly every style, which may help him read and adjust to Donchenko’s aggressive, linear pressure over quarter-hour. That veteran seasoning shows in his shot selection, counters, and composure in messy exchanges.

Donchenko’s volume and willingness to take one to present one make him fun but hittable. Morono’s straight right, check hooks, and willingness to throw together off the counter are tailor-made to intercept someone who often enters on the identical lines.

If Morono stays disciplined, picks his spots, and infrequently clinches or level changes to interrupt Donchenko’s rhythm, he can force the younger fighter into prolonged defensive sequences he hasn’t consistently needed to navigate. Over time, that would slow Daniil’s output and make his entries more predictable.

Markets have Morono as a large underdog, but that mostly reflects age and optics slightly than pure skill. In a fight prone to feature brawling moments, Morono’s timing, counters, and veteran savvy give him a live path to a choice—and even late stoppage—at UFC Vegas 113.

Why Daniil Donchenko will win

• Last Fight: (W) Rodrigo Sezinando – KO/TKO R1 
• Last 5: 5-0
• Finishes: 10 (8 KO/TKO/2 SUB)

Daniil Donchenko looks primed to overwhelm Alex Morono with youth, pace, and a way more efficient striking and wrestling profile. His numbers jump off the page: roughly 8.7 significant strikes landed per minute at 57% accuracy with strong defensive metrics and real takedown volume layered behind it.

Morono, against this, is on a three-fight skid, absorbing way more damage than he used to and struggling to maintain opponents off him after they press forward. Donchenko’s pressure, combos, and willingness to combine in level changes should force the veteran onto the back foot and into prolonged defensive sequences where his declining footwork and 47% takedown defense develop into liabilities.

The small Apex cage only amplifies this; it gives a marauding pressure fighter like Donchenko less distance to cover and fewer escape lanes for Morono’s usual circling and reset game. Over three rounds, that likely means Donchenko steadily piling up damage with boxing, elbows, and top control every time he secures takedowns.

Markets heavily reflect this dynamic, pricing Donchenko as a robust favorite and projecting a bout where volume and control snowball over time. The prediction is Daniil Donchenko by dominant decision with real upside for a late accumulation-based stoppage at UFC Vegas 113.

Final Alex Morono-Daniil Donchenko prediction & pick

Daniil Donchenko looks just like the rightful favorite and the pick, largely as a result of youth, durability, and pace benefits against a clearly weathered Alex Morono. Morono’s veteran craft is real, but three straight losses with mounting damage make it harder to trust him to win 15 hard minutes against a surging pressure fighter.

Donchenko’s game is built to win rounds: high-volume boxing combos, body-head attacks, and the flexibility to combine in takedowns behind his forward pressure. Within the small Apex cage, that style tends to snowball as he pins opponents, forces them into prolonged exchanges, and racks up each damage and control time.

Morono’s best path is landing clean counters as Donchenko enters, or creating chaos that turns into opportunistic ending moments. But with slowing footwork and historically shaky takedown defense, he’s way more prone to find yourself fighting off the fence and the mat than consistently dictating terms.

Given current metrics and market sentiment, probably the most probable script is Donchenko dragging Morono right into a high-pace, attritional fight where his volume, youth, and physicality shine. Daniil Donchenko is anticipated to complete Alex Morono early at UFC Vegas 113 to make 2-0 contained in the octagon.

Final Alex Morono-Daniil Donchenko Prediction & Pick: Daniil Donchenko (-650), Under 1.5 Rounds (-135)