Last Updated:
Rain at R. Premadasa Stadium in Colombo washed out Pakistan and Latest Zealand’s T20 World Cup match. How much has it hurt their semi-final probabilities?
Pakistan faced Latest Zealand of their first match of the Super Eights. (AP Photo)
Pakistan and Latest Zealand’s probabilities of reaching the semi-final of the 2026 T20 World Cup suffered a serious blow on Saturday (February 21) after their match on the R. Premadasa Stadium in Colombo was washed out with no ball being bowled attributable to rain. Because reserve days aren’t available for these matches, each teams will share some extent each, as a substitute of the utmost two they may have gotten for winning it.
With a win price two points, they’ll now finish on five, three or one point, depending on their results against England on February 24 and Sri Lanka on February 28.
If Pakistan win each matches and reach five points, they may actually qualify for the semi-finals. In a three-game group, five points is a really strong total and, at most, just one other team can match or exceed that tally.
If Pakistan win one and lose one, they may finish on three points. In that case, qualification will rely on how the opposite results unfold. Three points often keep a team strongly in contention, but it surely may come right down to net run rate if multiple teams are tied. If Pakistan lose each matches and remain on one point, they’ll be eliminated.
Do Pakistan and Latest Zealand profit from it?
If we assume all 4 teams are equivalent in strength and each match is a 50–50 contest, all sides initially has an equal probability of ending in the highest two. With 4 teams competing for 2 semi-final spots, easy symmetry tells us that every team’s probability is 50 percent before any matches are played.
The washout between Pakistan and Latest Zealand changes that balance. In a standard game, each team would have a 50 percent probability of earning two points and a 50 percent probability of getting none.
As a substitute, each teams received one guaranteed point and avoided the chance of a loss. That removes one possible negative consequence from their campaign.
Sri Lanka and England, meanwhile, still need to play three full-risk matches. If you calculate all possible remaining mixtures, Pakistan and Latest Zealand’s qualification probability rises to about 56.25% each, while Sri Lanka and England’s probabilities fall to about 43.75% each.
But, again, that is after assuming all teams are equal and winning margins (or NRR) don’t matter. It isn’t exact, but we are able to assume that each teams don’t have to be too disheartened concerning the washed-out game.
February 21, 2026, 23:17 IST
Read More