By Pierce Oel A. Montalvo, Researcher
Retail price growth of general goods within the National Capital Region (NCR) grew to its fastest pace in two years in January, fueled by the spike in food prices, the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) said in a report on Friday.
Preliminary data from the PSA showed price growth in Metro Manila, as measured by the overall retail price index (GRPI), rose by 2.1% 12 months on 12 months in January, faster than the 1.4% seen in the identical period last 12 months.
January’s retail price growth was also higher than December’s 1.5% print, and the fastest because the 2.5% reading in January 2024.
“The GRPI rose amid higher price adjustments of utilities, rents, restaurants, accommodation, healthcare, other services, and other contract price adjustments normally done at first of the 12 months,” Rizal Industrial Banking Corp. Chief Economist Michael L. Ricafort said in a Viber message.
He added that higher US dollar/peso exchange rate and global crude oil prices amid geopolitical risks in January 2026 contributed to the uptick.
Marco Antonio C. Agonia, an economist on the University of Asia and the Pacific, said that the uptick could also be attributed to the faster increase in food items, which reflects early 2026 pricing adjustments by food retailers.
“A part of the rise in food prices can also be linked to rising fish prices (which occupies an outsized weight within the food component) recently resulting from fishing bans implemented early within the 12 months,” Mr. Agonia said in an e-mail.
On Feb. 16, the Bureau of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources lifted a three-month ban for sardines and other small species within the Visayan Sea and in waters off the Zamboanga Peninsula.
Under the food subindex, fish & fish preparation accounted for greater than a tenth of the GRPI.
The PSA said that the uptrend within the annual growth rate of the GRPI in January 2026 was primarily caused by the faster annual increase within the heavily weighted index of food at 3.6% from 1.8% within the previous month.
The food subindex accounted for over a 3rd of the GRPI.
Quicker paces were also seen within the subindices for crude materials, inedible except fuels (2.8% from 2% in December), in addition to manufactured goods classified chiefly by materials (1.5% from 1.4%)
Meanwhile, the subindex for chemicals, including animal and vegetable oils and fats deflated to 2.1% in January from 2.2% a month earlier.
Likewise, price growth for mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials dipped by 0.4%, reversing its 0.8% growth in December.
Price growth in January was regular in beverages and tobacco (1.4%), miscellaneous manufactured articles (0.8%), and machinery and transport equipment (0.7%).
For the approaching months, Mr. Ricafort said year-on-year inflation is predicted to moderate initially in 2026 following unfavorable base effects from last 12 months, then potentially rise later within the 12 months, though improved weather conditions could help offset food price pressures.
Philippine inflation quickened to an 11-month high of two% in January, settling inside the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ 2%-4% goal.
“Renewed geopolitical tensions in oil producing regions could provide upward pressure for domestic prices. This will likely work its way towards general retail prices if retailers must pass on added costs to consumers,” said. Mr. Agonia.
The GRPI is predicated on 2012 constant prices.
The PSA uses the GRPI as a deflator within the National Accounts, particularly within the retail trade sector, and serves as a basis for forecasting.