News of the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, a hard-line cleric, has reportedly been met with celebrations in Tehran.
Despite the iron-fisted leader being worn out in a joint US-Israeli operation, one other obstacle to government reform stays: the scary Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps remain, with hundreds of soldiers willing to die for the regime.
Dr Katayoun Shahandeh from SOAS on the University of London told Metro that what happens to the IRGC in the approaching weeks is ‘much more complex’ than the fate of Khamenei.
‘Although Khamenei was a central ideological and political authority, the IRGC just isn’t merely loyal to an individual – it’s an entrenched institutional, economic, and military power structure,’ she said.
‘Over a long time, it has embedded itself deeply into Iran’s political system, intelligence networks, judiciary influence, and vast economic enterprises. It functions as each a military force and a state-within-a-state.’
Institutional continuity mechanisms are already embedded into the Islamic Republic’s structure – and its succession planning is a component of its ‘survival strategy’.
‘The death of the Supreme Leader would trigger internal recalibration, not collapse,’ she added. ‘The more likely scenario is certainly one of consolidation moderately than dissolution. In moments of uncertainty, security institutions often tighten control.’
After the Ayatollah’s death, the IRGC could use the facility vacuum to border itself as a guarantor of stability, Dr Shahandeh said.
Dr. Andreas Krieg, Associate Professor of Middle Eastern Studies at King’s College London, agrees.
He told Metro that if a brand new, opposition-led government emerges within the aftermath of Khamenei’s death, the IRGC would make it difficult.
‘The Guards are the backbone of coercion and a central economic actor, they usually are well placed to veto outcomes they see as existential,’ he explained.
‘If a ‘recent government’ is as a substitute a reconfigured version of the present system, then the IRGC is more likely to be certainly one of its important architects.’
If the IRGC manages to hold onto control of the country, a more ‘securitised’ arrangement could come to light, wherein a non secular figure provides symbolic legitimacy while real authority shifts to a collective security-political centre, Dr Krieg said.
Yet internal fractures can’t be ruled out. The IRGC just isn’t monolithic; it incorporates competing factions with various ideological intensities, economic interests, and political ambitions.
Though many Iranians are celebrating the death of Khamenei, this sentiment doesn’t mean the country will transform politically overnight.
‘The important thing certainty is that this: the IRGC is not going to relinquish power voluntarily,’ Dr Shahandeh said.
‘It has an excessive amount of institutional, economic, and ideological investment in the present system. Whether it strikes back externally, tightens repression internally, or negotiates behind the scenes will rely upon how secure it feels within the immediate aftermath.’
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