FEBRUARY 28: Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk writes one “theory” in league circles is that Willis will ultimately land between $20MM and $25MM per season on a two- or three-year contract. That might mark a significant contrast to other notable QB deals given Willis’ lack of starting experience, but demand from a protracted list of suitors could in fact produce a good more lucrative agreement.
FEBRUARY 24: Could Malik Willis be the NFL’s next successful quarterback reclamation project?
Teams are definitely curious about checking out. The 2022 third-round pick is ready to hit free agency in March with considerable hype about his potential as a starter.
Projections for his market value have grown over the previous few months, with NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport predicting that Willis could get anywhere from $30MM to $35MM per 12 months in free agency during a recent appearance on NFL Every day. Host Gregg Rosenthal added that he could see Willis getting as much as $42MM per 12 months. Veteran insider Jordan Schultz adds a $30MM-per-year deal, at the least, appears to be a “foregone conclusion” for Willis.
That may be a steep price for a quarterback with just six profession starts, three of which were rough rookie performances in Tennessee. Willis has made huge strides since arriving in Green Bay in 2024, but those projections would pay him similarly to Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold after they’d proven themselves as full-time starters. Willis may not should take a lower one-year ‘prove it’ deal as Mayfield and Darnold did, but matching or exceeding their AAVs seems like a protracted shot.
Teams should be willing to pony up for a young quarterback with exciting athletic traits and the flexibility to develop under the best coaching. Willis’ lack of starting experience may go in his favor, too. Justin Fields‘ known limitations capped his market last offseason, but teams have only seen Willis thrive in Green Bay within the last two years.
The Dolphins have emerged as an obvious landing spot for Willis after hiring Packers defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley and vp of player personnel Jon-Eric Sullivan as their next head coach/general manager duo. Nevertheless, they’ve a good cap situation and can already be paying Tua Tagovailoa $54MM in 2026, per OverTheCap.
“I don’t know that Miami has the cash,” Rapoport said. But don’t just take it from him.
In response to an issue about Willis on the Mix, Sullivan himself acknowledged that the Dolphins have “a little bit of an uphill climb” with regards to their funds.
“Have we had conversations about Malik? I believe anybody that’s potentially within the quarterback market can be lying in the event that they said they’ve not,” Sullivan said (via C. Isaiah Smalls of the Miami Herald). “The fact of the situation is we have now 30-plus unrestricted and restricted free agents. And we got eight picks as we sit here today and never a ton of cash to do stuff in free agency.”
The Dolphins could definitely discover a strategy to get Willis to Miami, but doing so will take a mixture of cuts, restructures, and a creative contract structure. Even then, as Sullivan notes, the team has more areas to deal with, and concentrating $90MM at quarterback will limit their ability to speculate in other positions.
But Hafley and Sullivan must also understand how team leadership will be defined by their ability (or inability) to amass quarterback talent. 26-year-olds with starting potential rarely hit unrestricted free agency, so the Dolphins could also be best served by prioritizing Willis now and constructing the roster around him over the subsequent two offseasons within the hopes of getting back to playoff contention by 2027.