It’s been three days because the United States and Israel launched an aerial campaign against Iran, killing Supreme Leader Khamenei and crippling the regime.
However the chaos has spilt over into neighbouring countries, has already seen multiple American soldiers die and missiles fired at British bases within the Mediterranean.
US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth said earlier today: ‘We’ve got launched the deadliest air campaign in history and used strategic bombers.’
Now, the largest query is: what happens next?
Dr Katayoun Shahandeh from the University of London told Metro that the conflict could spread. Nonetheless, she doesn’t imagine Russia or China, Iran’s biggest allies, would have any inclination to become involved.
Ross Harrison, senior fellow on the Middle East Institute in Washington, DC and writer of the brand new book ‘Decoding Iran’s Foreign Policy’ told Metro the largest worry for China is the possible disruption of oil supplies.
Around 20% of the world’s energy supplies currently transit through the Strait of Hormuz, south of Iran.
Harrison added: ‘My hunch is that if the conflict continues for per week or two, they may become involved diplomatically through international organisations just like the UN. I don’t see this globalising in a military sense.
‘By way of economic impact? Perhaps. By way of the international order going forward? Yes. But by way of spreading to an actual World War III situation? I doubt it.’
Dr Shahandeh explained that although the Iranians haven’t shut down the important thing shipping lane yet, they ‘won’t think twice’ in the event that they feel desperate.
‘They might bring the remainder of the world into the conflict. Essentially, they wish to make sure that in the event that they aren’t going to survive, they may damage the world economy as much as possible,’ she added.
‘It has all the time been inside the ethos of the Islamic Republic to fight to the top. Given this Shiite militant ideology, they may not go down and not using a fight.’
This can be a ‘fight to the death’ for Iran
The Islamic Republic has prepared to fight until the death, with contingency plans in place because the Revolution, because the regime’s legitimacy has ‘all the time been questioned’, Dr Shahandeh said.
But in the intervening time, the regime is holding on to the shreds of the Islamic Republic, with ‘no signs’ of internal strife within the apparatus of the regime – but that doesn’t mean it can stay that way, Dr Shahandeh added.
‘Iranian proxies (Hezbollah, Houthis and Iraqi militants) will come to Iran’s aid and check out to inflict damage where they will, particularly against Israel,’ she explained.
‘To what extent they might be successful is the actual query. If neighbouring countries get fully involved, we’re the equivalent of World War III.’
US president Donald Trump said he sees one other 4 weeks of conflict within the region, which could end the Islamic Republic for good, but Dr Shahandeh has her doubts.
‘They’re more resilient than people think due to their structure and their long history of contingency planning.’
Will this be the beginning of World War Three?
Despite being hit by missiles, other regional neighbours like Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the UAE, and Qatar will likely not become involved directly, Harrison says, unless they’re constantly attacked.
‘They don’t have the offensive capability; they only have defensive capability. Perhaps the Saudis do to a point, however the others don’t. I don’t think kinetic motion will spread from the Gulf states to Iran. They simply don’t have that capability at this point,’ he added.
But in the approaching days, tensions won’t die down, Harrison said, adding: ‘Immediately, escalation dominance is within the hands of the USA and Israel. For those who’re on the lookout for signals, they’ve to return from those two actors.’
In the approaching weeks, nonetheless, Harrison said the world will see Iran ‘putting as brave a face as they will on their succession struggle.’
He added: ‘For the Iranians, winning doesn’t mean winning militarily—that’s a foregone conclusion, they can not. Winning for them means the regime coming out of this intact and maintaining some ability to retaliate.
‘If the regime doesn’t crack from inside and maintains some retaliatory capability over the following week, you may see a possible de-escalation.
‘But at this point, I believe there remains to be an appetite on the a part of the Israelis and the Americans to attempt to bring this regime down.’
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