The war within the Middle East spiralled further today as Israel and the US pounded Iran in response to attacks on Israel, other Arab states and against targets critical to the world’s production of oil and natural gas.
The intensity of the attacks, the killing of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the dearth of any apparent exit plan have set the stage for a chronic conflict.
Iran has long threatened, if attacked, to tug the region into total war, including targeting Israel, the Gulf Arab states and the flow of crude oil crucial for global energy markets.
The Regime has made good on that promise, throwing the region into turmoil, which could upend the international world order as we understand it.
Dr Robert Johnson, Senior Research Fellow at Pembroke College in Oxford and Director of the Oxford Strategy, Statecraft, and Technology Centre, spoke with Metro about what this conflict could mean for the world.
Questions of legality and international decorum have been brought up as well, but Dr Johnson said that Trump appears desperate to create a brand new set of ‘norms’, as do two other countries: Russia and China.
How the conflict in Iran could change international affairs
‘Two of the three most important states on this planet are talking about reorganising international affairs,’ Dr Johnson told Metro.
‘The Europeans, the British, and plenty of members of the UN General Assembly are struggling to return to terms with this recent dispensation, which appears to be based on “national interests first.’
One international norm, which hasn’t been called into query by any nation, nonetheless, is nuclear proliferation, Dr Johnson said.
‘Iran was, so far as we are able to see, in breach of that. There have been certain programs underway—for instance, the Natanz nuclear program.
‘You wouldn’t bury a traditional civilian nuclear program under a mountain; that’s clearly a military installation,’ he explained.
How do Russia and China fit into this?
Russia and China are allies of Iran – or no less than, they were.
The 2 countries have condemned US intervention within the Middle East, but Dr Johnson identified the hypocrisy of Russia’s condemnation of ‘one other unprovoked act of armed aggression’ after their illegal invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
China also did, calling for a ceasefire and resumption of negotiations. But China is very depending on fuel supplies coming through the Gulf.
Dr Johnson said: ‘In Beijing, they’ll be considering that if the Americans are this unpredictable, they don’t understand how the U.S. would react to a move against Taiwan.
‘Somewhat than giving China a license to operate against Taiwan, I think they’ll calculate that the chance is just too high while President Trump is in power.’
How the conflict could affect the UK
Though China and Russia face risks of energy supply loss after the attacks in Iran, there are ‘greater risks’ for the UK and Europe than for America.
Dr Johnson referenced the 1973 oil shock in Britain, when Arab members of OPEC halted shipments to the US and other nations that supported Israel throughout the Yom Kippur War.
‘That led to a three-day work week, lost jobs, and shut industries. There may be a risk that a chronic war could try this again, particularly when the UK government has decided to tax its own North Sea energy firms at a rate of 78%,’ Dr Johnson added.
‘The economics of this are as essential because the military operations.’
But during a distinct conflict – the Iran-Iraq War within the Nineteen Eighties – oil prices actually fell because firms underwrote damages to maintain the oil flowing.
Dr Johnson said: ‘It is extremely hard for Iran to shut the Straits of Hormuz; they couldn’t do it within the Nineteen Eighties, and they’re going to struggle to do it again. The Houthis have shown you possibly can interfere with Red Sea traffic, but you possibly can’t stop it entirely.’
The West isn’t fascinated by ‘long-term’ effects
‘The West isn’t considering long-term. We’d like to ask: what’s the long-term power relationship within the Gulf? If the Iranian Republic collapses and is replaced by a democracy, it will be a useful consequence: secure oil flow, less militarisation, and no threat of nuclear weapons,’ Dr Johnson explained.
‘Israel would calm down, and Iran would not sponsor proxy forces. If the Republic fails, these Iranian proxies can have fewer munitions, less supply, and no ideological inspiration or advisors.’
Even when Iranian proxies within the region survive the potential collapse of the Islamic Republic, they’ll face great obstacles – but will survive.
For instance, after cutting ties with Tehran, the Palestinian Liberation Organisation continued.
But Dr Johnson added: ‘If the Islamic regime survives, they’ll use these instruments (the Houthis, Hezbollah, and militias in Iraq) as tools for his or her policy even greater than before.
‘We’d see them return to full strength over time. It will be a return to the dreadful cycle of conflict afflicting the Middle East.’
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