When Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in one in all the primary missile strikes launched by the US and Israel of their war on Iran, he was 86 years old and sick.
So it’s likely top officials within the country already had succession plans in place in case of his demise – even in the event that they probably didn’t predict how it might occur.
However the intriguing pick that appears to have emerged suggests those plans could have needed to be rethought since chaos exploded across the region.
The Latest York Times has reported that the leading candidate to step in as Supreme Leader is Mojtaba Khamenei, the second-eldest son of the dead ayatollah.
Dr Christian Emery, an associate professor in international politics at University College London, told Metro the alternative wouldn’t be without controversy.
He said: ‘He’s reportedly extremely influential inside Iran but working against him is each his lack of presidency experience and the political and clerical establishment’s fear that returning to hereditary rule would undermine the Iranian Revolution’s founding principle of no more Shahs.’
Based on the BBC, Ali Khamenei is believed to have ruled out Mojtaba as a successor several years ago, warning against a hereditary process.
Nonetheless, the younger Khamenei is believed to have close links with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps – and his selection would suggest the IRGC is becoming increasingly influential in mid-conflict Iran.
Professor Emery said this relationship was forged by Khamenei’s service throughout the Iran-Iraq War within the Nineteen Eighties, which forms a ‘core a part of the Islamic Republic’s identity’.
His appointment as Supreme Leader would make sure the ‘enormous economic and political powerbase’ built up by the IRGC during Ali Khamenei’s tenure would proceed to go unchallenged, he added.
And it would supply little comfort to the victims of the brutal crackdown on protests earlier this 12 months, as Mojtaba is believed to have been a key architect of the regime’s response.
Meanwhile, the choice would also make him a key goal for assassination.
In a post on X this morning, Israel’s Defence Minister Israel Katz said the brand new Supreme Leader could be ‘an unequivocal goal for elimination. It doesn’t matter what his name is or the place where he hides’.
This threat could hit particularly near home for Mujtaba Khamenei – alongside his father, he also lost his wife, Zahra Adel; his mother, Mansoureh Khojasteh Bagherzadeh; and a son in Saturday’s strikes.
How is Iran’s recent Supreme Leader chosen?
Within the 47 years because the Iranian Revolution of 1979, there have only been two Supreme Leaders of Iran.
The primary was Ruhollah Khomeini, who ruled for nine-and-a-half years until 1989. Ali Khamenei was the second.
(As a sidenote, the title of Ayatollah doesn’t mechanically include the role. It simply means a high-ranking Shiite leader – Khomeini already was one when he became Supreme Leader, while Khamenei was given the title afterwards to assist shore up his legitimacy.)
The Iranian Structure sets out the method for choosing the brand new one.
It’s all all the way down to the Assembly of Experts, a body elected by the Iranian public every eight years which is made up of 88 clerics.
Inside the Assembly, there’s a smaller committee that picks out an inventory of acceptable candidates to whittle down the alternative for the remainder of the members.
‘It’s almost certain that this was done long before the present war,’ Professor Emery said.
Now Khamenei is dead, the structure dictates the Assembly must elect a successor by majority vote ‘as soon as possible’ – something that might often be made easy by all of the groundwork.
Professor Emery explained: ‘Khamenei’s own elevation was so rigorously choreographed that it took the Assembly of Experts only 24 hours to elect him.’
Nonetheless, he added that it’s ‘very unclear how the Assembly of Experts can formally convene’ when such a gathering would supply Israel and the US with a golden opportunity to wipe out more of Iran’s leadership.
Who else is within the running to change into Supreme Leader of Iran?
These are the opposite almost certainly candidates for the brand new Supreme Leader of Iran in accordance with Professor Emery – and what impact he believes they might have.
Supreme Court Chief Justice Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje’i
Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje’i is currently one in all the three leaders standing in because the country’s interim governing council.
‘An extreme hardliner, he’s notorious for being the important thing judicial figure chargeable for the mass executions and brutal crackdown on protesters throughout the January anti-government protests.
‘As such, his appointment as Supreme Leader would potentially incite more public rage.’
Hassan Khomeini
‘The grandson of the founding father of the Islamic Republic and its first Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini.
‘Hassan Khomeini could also be as near a stabilising option because the regime can get.
‘He has the Khomeini family name and links to each reformist and conservative factions and is reportedly also respected by the powerful Revolutionary Guards.
‘He’s seen as somewhat of a moderate, although that continues to be a really relative term amongst all of the potential candidates given their loyalty to such a brutal and corrupt system.’
Ayatollah Alireza Arafi
‘A member of the Guardian Council since 2019 and of the Assembly of Experts since 2022.
‘He has the clerical standing and his influence was seen when he was appointed to the country’s interim governing council.
‘He would likely be seen as a protected pair of hands who would largely proceed Khamenei’s agenda and never challenge the facility of the Revolutionary Guard.’
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