Plans surrounding spring farming for Canadians are set to drastically change following the partial closure of the Strait of Hormuz — and the spillover effects on global fertilizer supplies.
The narrow waterway near Iran handles a good portion of world energy and fertilizer supplies and is home to a number of the world’s largest fertilizer plants, but is showing no signs of reopening because of the continuing war within the Middle East.
The ocean channel is chargeable for one-third of the worldwide trade for these nutrients, reminiscent of urea, nitrogen, sulphur and phosphates, in line with Kreg Ruhl, vice-president of crop nutrients for Growmark.
Currently, Iran is threatening any vessels that try to go through the Strait of Hormuz.
President and CEO of Fertilizer Canada Michael Bourque said in an emailed statement to Global News that “as a globally traded commodity, any impact on global fertilizer production may be felt throughout the market.”
“Ongoing instability within the region also has the potential to disrupt global trade flows, particularly through key corridors reminiscent of the Strait of Hormuz, which plays a central role within the movement of energy, fertilizer and lots of other goods.”
The timing is just not ideal for individuals who require these products, because the seasons change and demand is about to skyrocket.
“The complete world is competing for the limited supply that’s available, and we’re preparing to go to the fields and plan for next 12 months’s crops in the following 30 to 60 days in most of North America, so the timing is pretty detrimental,” Ruhl said.
‘You are going to be in trouble’
Canada produced 32.8 per cent — around 76.1 million tonnes — of the world’s total potash, a key mineral in fertilizers, in 2024.
It stays the world’s largest potash producer, in line with Natural Resources Canada.
But that doesn’t mean Canada or Canadian farmers can be entirely insulated from the worldwide supply chain issues. Ryan Flitton, one among the owners of Twin Valley Farms in Ontario, emphasized that there may be greater than potash needed to create fertilizer.
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“Obviously, there’s nitrogen and other ingredients that we want, nutrients that we don’t produce in Canada. So, in an effort to make that perfect product to assist farmers, you wish greater than just potash,” he said.
“And naturally, you wish reasonably priced fertilizers. That’s not all the time the case in Canada; a lot of the fertilizers that we actually produce in Canada are for export markets, really.
“What we produce, we don’t devour, but we actually are likely to devour things which might be imported. And that’s why it’s a little bit of a challenge.”
Ruhl also said the most important impact Canadian farms will face is the fluctuating price point.
“That’s compounded with how farmers have been facing a sustained period of ‘farmgate’ economics which might be negative to them, so additional prices on the inputs only make the farmgate economics challenges harder.”
Philip Rumley, a grain producer at North Rumley Farm in southern Alberta, said the farm is “absolutely” seeing the impacts of fertilizer prices rising.
“Rumours are we’re up at $1,200 a ton for urea. So, if you happen to haven’t bought your fertilizer by now, because we’re inside a month of go time, you’re going to be in trouble,” he said.
“In the event that they shut down the Strait of Hormuz, nothing’s entering into and nothing’s going out. In order that affects the entire global price for all the things because we’re locked into a worldwide market.”
Nevertheless, Mike von Massow, a food economist on the University of Guelph, said it is just not just potash that can be affected.
“In case you have a look at what moves through the Strait of Hormuz to Canada, it is a few liquefied natural gas coming to Eastern Canada, some crude coming to Eastern Canada, that if we had pipelines or other ways to maneuver it, we might be supplying from western Canada,” he said.
“So, we’d see some small impacts on freight rates.”
Bourque said “farmers are encouraged to seek the advice of their local agricultural retailers for the latest information on fertilizer supply of their area.”
Not the primary hurdle Canadian fertilizer suppliers faced this 12 months
It’s not the primary upheaval for Canadian fertilizer and the agricultural industry.
U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to slap tariffs on Canadian fertilizer “if we’ve got to” in December 2025, putting a strain on the long run of the Canadian fertilizer business.
The Trump administration previously lifted tariffs on several key imported fertilizers, effective Nov. 13, 2025. That got here after tariffs of 25 per cent were levied on goods from Canada and Mexico in March 2025.
Canadian potash imports to the U.S. had initially faced a 25 per cent tariff, which was quickly reduced to 10 per cent.
Despite the uncertainty, Nutrien, the Saskatchewan-based company that’s the world’s largest provider of crop inputs and services, told The Canadian Press in February that “it expects potash sales volumes to are available between 14.1 million tonnes and 14.8 million tonnes this 12 months.”
Alongside the change in seasons, the demand for products is reaching its yearly peak at an uncertain time.
“Fertilizer has two seasons [fall and spring] and it’s unique to every sort of geography,” Ruhl said.
“But when I feel of our Eastern Canadian business, that’s primarily a spring market, especially for all but nitrogen products, and people are probably essentially the most impacted by the Strait of Hormuz being closed.”
— with files from Global News’ Heather Yourex-West.