Iran’s recent supreme leader narrowly avoided death after a US-Israeli strike worn out most of his immediate family.
Gathering for Ramadan in the identical bunker, Mojtaba Khamenei’s father Ali Khamenei, mother Mansoureh Khojasteh Bagherzadeh, his wife of 20 years Zahra and considered one of his sons, reported as Mohammad were all killed within the strike that launched the war.
Mojtaba Khamenei suffered a fractured foot, a bruise around his left eye, in addition to minor lacerations to his face, a source conversant in the situation told CNN.
Now Iran fears his period of rule shall be centred around personal revenge and never what’s best for the people.
By killing his father, did Donald Trump unleash an even bigger monster on the Middle East by merely replacing him with a son hellbent on revenge for the death of his entire family?
What do experts say?
His father’s death only hastened a succession that had been quietly in motion for years.
Dr Katayoun Shahandeh, a Lecturer in History of Art and Museology, told Metro: ‘It is extremely likely that retaliation and resistance will change into central themes in Mojtaba Khamenei’s leadership, not less than in rhetoric.
‘The strikes that killed the previous Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei (Mojtaba’s father) and members of his family will inevitably shape the political atmosphere in Tehran.
‘Reports suggest that Mojtaba himself was injured in the identical attack and lost close relatives, which makes the moment not only political but deeply personal.’
She added that Iran’s revenge is prone to be more strategic than emotional.
‘Even when leaders speak by way of revenge, responses are often calculated throughout the framework of deterrence and long-term geopolitical positioning,’ Dr Shahandeh explains.
Mojtaba has long been related to networks near the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), and lots of imagine his elevation was strongly supported by the dreaded Revolutionary Guards.
He was also widely believed to have played a task behind the scenes throughout the crackdown on the 2009 Iranian presidential election protests (generally known as the Green Movement), which gave him a repute as a hardliner inside Iranian political circles.
She added: ‘Mojtaba Khamenei is prone to be a very different sort of Supreme Leader from his father. Unlike Ali Khamenei, he just isn’t widely considered a senior cleric throughout the Shiʿi religious establishment, and he doesn’t have the identical religious authority traditionally related to the role.
‘In consequence, his leadership style could also be more discreet, more security-focused, and more depending on political alliances throughout the system, especially with the IRGC. Reasonably than acting primarily as a non secular authority, he may function more as a political and strategic coordinator on the apex of the state.’
Where is Mojtaba Khameni now?
It’s unknown.
He’s yet to talk publicly since being elected to take his father’s place. The people of Iran have never heard his voice as he operated behind the shadows of his father’s regime.
Iranian ambassador to Iran Alireza Salarian, said the 56-year-old was lucky to survive the strike.
‘He was also there and he was injured in that bombardment but I haven’t seen that reflected within the foreign news,’ he told the Guardian. ‘I even have heard that he was injured in his legs and hand and arm … I feel he’s within the hospital because he’s injured.’
He could also be in hiding however the IRGC are still energetic. Among the finest ways to retaliate is to hit Trump within the pocket.
The force are believed to be laying sea mines on considered one of the busiest shipping lanes on this planet – the Strait of Hormuz. They are saying it can not allow ‘a litre of oil’ through the Strait until the worth of a barrel ‘tops $200’ a price that can irk even essentially the most enthusiastic MAGA supporter.
A spokesperson for the IRGC’s Khatam al-Anbiya Headquarters said that any vessel linked to the US and Israel or their allies ‘shall be considered a legitimate goal’.
The fear has spread to the worldwide markets with ships unable to be insured to go on the journey and marine traffic grinding to a halt.
What has Trump said?
Khamenei the younger’s candidacy can have been not directly boosted by Donald Trump, who criticised the younger Khamenei in an interview and insisted that he be involved in choosing Iran’s next leader.
‘They’re wasting their time. Khamenei’s son is a light-weight. I even have to be involved within the appointment,’ Trump said, referring to his operation that saw the US military seize former Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro.
‘Khamenei’s son is unacceptable to me. We wish someone who will bring harmony and peace to Iran.’
Will Mojtaba Khamenei give up?
Even with 1,200 people killed in US strikes to date, Dr Shahandeh says no.
‘A rapid give up by Iran is incredibly unlikely. The political identity of the Islamic Republic has long been built across the narrative of resistance to external pressure, particularly from the United States and Israel.
‘Actually, the death of the Supreme Leader in military strikes would make give up even less plausible within the short term. Any leadership that followed such an event would likely feel compelled to exhibit resilience relatively than capitulation, each to take care of domestic legitimacy and to project strength internationally.’
She added: ‘Trump’s claim [the war will be over in weeks] appears highly optimistic.
‘Conflicts involving Iran rarely unfold quickly since the country’s military and strategic doctrine rely heavily on asymmetric warfare, regional alliances, and long-term pressure relatively than purely conventional battle.
‘After all, Trump may declare a “win” and withdraw troops, particularly given the incontrovertible fact that this war is unpopular each within the US, amongst his supporters and on this planet at large.’
Even when direct military operations were to decelerate and even halt, tensions could proceed through proxy actors, regional escalation, cyber operations, and economic confrontation. In other words, the conflict could easily shift into an extended and more complex phase relatively than ending quickly.
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