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UFC London: Movsar Evloev vs. Lerone Murphy continues on the predominant card with a fight between Iwo Baraniewski and Austen Lane in the sunshine heavyweight division on Saturday. Try our UFC odds series for our Baraniewski-Lane prediction and pick.
Iwo Baraniewski (8-0) has grow to be a must-watch finisher. He recently demolished Ibo Aslan in a chaotic 89-second UFC 323 debut war, following a 20-second one-punch KO of Mahamed Aly on DWCS. Every skilled win has come via first-round stoppage as he comes into his fight this weekend against Austen Lane.
Austen Lane (13-7, 1 NC) enters his light heavyweight debut trying to snap a two-fight skid. The previous NFL lineman recently suffered a submission loss to Vitor Petrino and a knockout against Mario Pinto. He’s trying to find an important reset as he comes into his fight this weekend against Iwo Baraniewski.
UFC London Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC London Odds: Iwo Baraniewski-Austen Lane Odds
Iwo Baraniewski: -575
Austen Lane: +425
Over 1.5 rounds: +250
Under 1.5 rounds: -345
Why Iwo Baraniewski Will Win
Iwo Baraniewski enters this light heavyweight clash as an enormous favorite, largely resulting from his terrifying 100% finish rate and flawless skilled record. At just 27 years old, the Polish standout possesses a level of explosive athleticism and raw power that has seen all seven of his profession victories end within the very first round.
His striking statistics are nearly unprecedented, as he currently averages a staggering 14.31 significant strikes landed per minute with nearly 70% accuracy. This relentless volume ensures that opponents are under fire from the opening bell, leaving almost no room for them to ascertain a rhythm or find their range.
Austen Lane, while possessing a major reach advantage, has shown a concerning vulnerability in his defensive striking and chin durability during recent outings. The previous NFL lineman is coming off back-to-back stoppage losses and is making a dangerous late-career drop to the 205-pound division at age 38.
Cutting a major amount of weight at this stage of his profession could further compromise Lane’s ability to soak up the form of heavy, one-punch power Baraniewski is thought for. While Lane may try to use his wrestling to slow the pace, Baraniewski has maintained an ideal 100% takedown defense against high-level opposition to date.
If Lane cannot secure a clinch or a takedown inside the first two minutes, he shall be forced right into a high-speed firefight that he simply lacks the defensive tools to survive. Expect Baraniewski to shut the gap quickly and find the chin of the veteran to secure one other signature first-round knockout victory.
Baraniewski’s combination of youth, momentum, and overwhelming offensive output makes him a nightmare matchup as he comes into his fight this weekend against Austen Lane.
Why Austen Lane Will Win
Austen Lane enters this light heavyweight debut with an enormous physical advantage that might fundamentally shift the dynamic of the fight. Standing at 6’6″ with a staggering 80-inch reach, Lane possesses a six-inch height and seven-inch reach edge over the much smaller Iwo Baraniewski.
This significant discrepancy allows the previous NFL defensive lineman to operate behind a protracted jab, keeping the explosive Pole at the tip of his range. By utilizing his collegiate wrestling background, Lane also can initiate clinches to lean his heavyweight-sized frame on the younger fighter and drain his energy.
While Baraniewski is thought for his lightning-fast first-round knockouts, he has yet to face an opponent with the veteran savvy and size of Lane. The drop to 205 kilos could provide Lane with a newfound speed and cardiovascular advantage that was missing during his tenure within the heavyweight division.
If the fight moves past the opening three minutes, the “deep waters” will heavily favor the more experienced American athlete. Lane’s ability to combine in level changes and heavy ground-and-pound will likely disrupt the striking rhythm that Iwo relies on for his signature finishes.
Expect a tactical masterpiece where Lane uses his superior length and veteran composure to frustrate the undefeated prospect and secure a grinding victory. He looks to prove that his move down in weight was the best profession reset as he comes into his fight this weekend against Iwo Baraniewski.
Final Iwo Baraniewski-Austen Lane Prediction & Pick
This light heavyweight matchup at UFC London features one in all the division’s most terrifying prospects in Iwo Baraniewski. The undefeated Pole enters the Octagon with a flawless 7-0 record, having remarkably finished each skilled opponent within the very first round.
Opposing him is Austen Lane, a former NFL defensive lineman who’s making a desperate profession pivot by dropping to the 205-pound division. While Lane holds an enormous six-inch height advantage and a major reach edge, his recent history of knockout losses at heavyweight is a serious red flag.
The first narrative of this fight centers on whether Lane’s chin can withstand Baraniewski’s blistering 14.31 significant strikes landed per minute. Baraniewski is a clinical finisher who wastes zero time finding his range and unloading heavy overhand rights which have put veterans to sleep.
Lane will likely try to use his wrestling to slow the pace and neutralize the Pole’s explosive entries, but the load cut could compromise his durability. At 38 years old, moving down in weight to face a 27-year-old knockout artist with a 100% finish rate is a high-risk gamble.
Expect Baraniewski to disregard the reach disparity, close the gap together with his signature aggression, and find the mark inside the first three minutes. The prediction is a devastating first-round TKO for the Polish standout as he comes into his fight this weekend against Austen Lane.
Final Iwo Baraniewski-Austen Lane Prediction & Pick: Iwo Baraniewski (-575), Under 1.5 Rounds (-345)