What experts say about the probabilities of Iranian missiles hitting London | News World

Iran has been firing missiles from the Strait of Hormuz (Picture: AFP)

Experts have said Israel’s warnings about Iranian missiles with the ability to hit the UK are ‘exaggerated’ as tensions proceed to rise.

On Saturday, the Israeli Defence Forces said it was the primary time Tehran had launched a long-range missile for the reason that start of the war, and warned it’s now able to reaching cities like London, Paris or Berlin.

‘We now have been saying it: The Iranian terrorist regime poses a world threat,’ the IDF said in a press release.

Diego Garcia is about 2,360 miles away from Iran and residential to a base able to accommodating long-range US bombers and navy ships.

The Israeli military claimed the missiles could reach a distance of about 4,000km, posing a danger to dozens of nations in Europe, Asia and Africa.

But Dr Bamo Nouri, Senior Lecturer in International Relations on the University of West London, told Metro that this suggestion from Israel must be treated with ‘caution’.

‘What the Diego Garcia strike demonstrates just isn’t an imminent capability or intent to attack the UK mainland, but a calibrated extension of range tied to a particular military goal—a joint US-UK base deeply embedded in ongoing operations against Iran,’ he said.

Iran Missile Range
Most of Iran’s missiles can only travel as much as 2,000km (Picture: Metro)

‘Israeli officials and a few Western narratives are already amplifying the strike as evidence of a broader Iranian threat to Europe, which risks getting used to justify drawing the UK and NATO more directly into combat roles relatively than maintaining logistical or defensive support,’ he added.

Dr Nouri said the strike near Diego Garcia does raise questions on Iran previously saying its missiles can only travel 2,000 miles, but ‘capability mustn’t be conflated with intent’.

He said: ‘The true danger here just isn’t that Iran is about to strike London, but that competing strategic narratives around this event could escalate the conflict far beyond its current scope.’

Dr Katayoun Shahandeh, Lecturer and Senior Teaching Fellow at SOAS, University of London, said the strike near Diego Garcia is important since it shows Iran’s capabilities and functions of strength.

‘It suggests that Tehran is ready to exhibit a reach well beyond its immediate region, which is why questions at the moment are being asked about what which may mean for parts of Europe, including London,’ she said.

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Dr Shahandeh identified that it continues to be not the identical as proving an imminent or credible direct threat to the British capital

She added: ‘I don’t imagine Iran desires to take Europe on directly, since it is well aware that it cannot confront your entire world directly. That’s the reason the position taken by various European governments is so essential.

‘Several have gone out of their method to distance themselves from Trump’s war, stressing that they weren’t those who initiated this conflict and that their priority stays de-escalation, regional stability, and defensive protection relatively than offensive participation.’

‘The more European governments emphasise defence, restraint, and diplomatic distance from the origins of this war, the less likely Iran could also be to treat Europe as its next direct theatre. That doesn’t remove the danger, however it does shape the logic of escalation.’

What has the UK said?

This video grab taken from handout footage released by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) on March 21, 2026, appears to show what it describes as the launch of
Iran has continued to fireside off barrages of missiles (Picture: AFP)

Today, Housing Secretary Steve Reed said the British military is ‘perfectly capable’ of protecting the country, but refused to disclose how close Tehran’s missiles got here to reaching the joint US-UK base Diego Garcia.

‘We now have the best military on the planet. We’re perfectly able to protecting this country,’ he told BBC’s Sunday With Laura Kuenssberg programme.

To this point, the Government has not said exactly when the 2 intermediate-range ballistic missiles were fired at Diego Garcia within the Chagos Islands or how close they got here to hitting their goal.

Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper condemned Iran’s missile strikes on the joint US-UK base on Saturday while stressing that the UK won’t be drawn right into a wider conflict.

She said ministers support defensive motion only and wish to see a swift resolution to the war.

One in all the missiles was shot down by a US warship while the opposite failed in flight, the Wall Street Journal reported.

Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch urged the Prime Minister to ‘come clean’ about the main points of the newest attack on British troops and explain why the general public was not informed.

‘Keir Starmer has dithered and delayed on the Iran conflict from the outset,’ she said.

‘Now we discover out, from the media and never the Prime Minister, that the British base on Diego Garcia has been the goal of Iranian missile attacks.’

Get in contact with our news team by emailing us at webnews@metro.co.uk.

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