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UFC London: Movsar Evloev vs. Lerone Murphy continues on the prelims with a fight between Antonio Trocoli and Mantas Kondratavicius within the middleweight division on Saturday. Try our UFC odds series for our Trocoli-Kondratavicius prediction and pick.
Antonio Trocoli (12-6, 1 NC) enters UFC London trying to snap a three-fight skid. Recently, he suffered back-to-back first-round submission losses to Mansur Abdul-Malik and Tresean Gore, following a TKO defeat against Shara Magomedov. The Brazilian giant needs a desperate turnaround as he comes into his fight this weekend against Mantas Kondratavicius.
Mantas Kondratavicius (8-1) is a lethal finisher entering his UFC debut. He recently punched his ticket with a 66-second TKO of Djani Barbir on the Contender Series. This followed a blistering 47-second knockout over Michael Tchamou at Cage Warriors as he comes into his fight favored this weekend.
UFC London Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC London Odds: Antonio Trocoli-Mantas Kondratavicius Odds
Antonio Trocoli: +550
Mantas Kondratavicius: -800
Over 1.5 rounds: +195
Under 1.5 rounds: -260
Why Antonio Trocoli Will Win
Antonio Trocoli enters this middleweight clash with an enormous physical advantage that might prove insurmountable for a debuting prospect. Standing at 6-foot-5 with a sprawling 80-inch reach, Trocoli possesses the length to maintain Mantas Kondratavicius at the tip of his jab and neutralize the newcomer’s explosive power.
While Kondratavicius is understood for his lightning-fast finishes, his defensive grappling stays a glaring query mark that Trocoli is perfectly equipped to take advantage of. The Brazilian is a seasoned submission specialist with five profession tap-outs, including dangerous anaconda and arm-triangle chokes that thrive within the scrambles.
Trocoli’s veteran experience against elite competition like Shara Magomedov has prepared him for the high-pressure environment of the UFC octagon. He has the tactical patience to weather an initial storm and wait for the moment Kondratavicius overcommits to a heavy strike.
If the fight hits the canvas, Kondratavicius has historically struggled with positioning, appearing vulnerable when forced to fight off his back. Trocoli’s ability to initiate a clinch and use his frame to force a grinding ground battle will likely drain the younger fighter’s gas tank.
By specializing in a grappling-heavy approach, Trocoli can bypass the striking risks and secure a much-needed victory through technical dominance. Expect the “Malvado” to make use of his reach and ground IQ to manage the tempo as he comes into his fight this weekend against Mantas Kondratavicius.
Why Mantas Kondratavicius Will Win
Mantas Kondratavicius enters his UFC debut with a terrifying amount of momentum, carrying an 8-1 record built almost entirely on devastating first-round finishes. His recent performance on the Contender Series, where he dispatched Djani Barbir in only 66 seconds, proved that his power translates to the very best levels of competition.
In stark contrast, Antonio Trocoli is currently mired in a three-fight losing streak and appears to be combating the physical and mental demands of the game. The Brazilian veteran has been finished early in his last two outings, showing a concerning susceptibility to folding under intense offensive pressure.
Kondratavicius possesses a “kill-or-be-killed” fighting style that may be a nightmare matchup for somebody coming off back-to-back submission losses. While Trocoli holds a major reach advantage, he often fails to put it to use effectively to maintain aggressive power strikers like Mantas on the surface.
Moreover, Trocoli’s historically poor 33% takedown defense leaves a glaring opening for the Lithuanian prospect to dictate where the fight takes place. If Mantas decides to initiate the wrestling, he’ll likely find little resistance in taking the fight to the mat and raining down ground-and-pound.
The disparity in cardiovascular urgency and pure hunger between these two middleweights is more likely to be the deciding factor from the opening bell. Expect Mantas to swarm the veteran early and secure one other highlight-reel stoppage as he comes into his fight this weekend against Antonio Trocoli.
Final Antonio Trocoli-Mantas Kondratavicius Prediction & Pick
This middleweight clash at UFC London presents a stark “sink or swim” scenario for Antonio Trocoli, who desperately needs to interrupt a three-fight skid. Opposing him is the highly-touted Mantas Kondratavicius, a Lithuanian powerhouse making his promotional debut with a popularity for explosive finishes.
Trocoli will enter the cage with a major physical advantage, standing 6’5″ with an enormous 80-inch wingspan to manage the range. Nevertheless, his recent outings have shown a concerning inability to utilize that length effectively once heavy pressure is applied within the pocket.
Kondratavicius is strictly the style of fighter to take advantage of these defensive lapses, as seen in his dominant 66-second TKO victory on the Contender Series. He possesses the raw speed and forward aggression to bridge the gap quickly, rendering Trocoli’s reach advantage almost entirely academic.
While Trocoli’s path to victory involves his superior Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, his defensive wrestling has looked porous against aggressive athletes these days. If Mantas can keep the fight standing or force a scramble, the facility disparity will likely turn out to be the deciding factor early.
The momentum is heavily shifted toward the newcomer, who appears more physically prepared for a high-intensity war on the O2 Arena. The prediction is Kondratavicius will find his range early and secure a devastating TKO as he comes into his fight this weekend against Antonio Trocoli.
Final Antonio Trocoli-Mantas Kondratavicius Prediction & Pick: Mantas Kondratavicius (-800), Under 1.5 Rounds (-260)