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UFC Vegas 114: Josh Emmett vs. Kevin Vallejos continues on the prelims with a fight between Bia Mesquita and Montserrat Rendon in the ladies’s bantamweight division on Saturday. Take a look at our UFC odds series for our Mesquita-Rendon prediction and pick.
Bia Mesquita (6-0) has dominated every step of her transition from BJJ royalty to MMA standout. She crushed Sierra Dinwoodie by second-round TKO at LFA 211 in June 2025 before choking out Irina Alekseeva with a round-two rear-naked choke in her UFC debut, as she comes into her fight this weekend against Montserrat Rendon.
Montserrat Rendon (7-1) enters UFC Vegas 114 as a gritty decision specialist, with all seven wins coming on the cards. The Mexican bantamweight edged Alice Pereira by split decision at Noche UFC after dropping a unanimous decision to Darya Zheleznyakova, as she comes into his fight this weekend against Bia Mesquita.
UFC Vegas 114 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Vegas 114 Odds: Bia Mesquita-Montserrat Rendon Odds
Bia Mesquita: -625
Montserrat Rendon: +455
Over 1.5 rounds: -215
Under 1.5 rounds: +165
Why Bia Mesquita Will Win
Bia Mesquita enters this matchup with a ceiling Rendon simply can’t match. Her elite Brazilian jiu-jitsu background means every clinch, scramble and takedown attempt from Rendon carries serious submission risk.
Rendon is a decision-heavy grinder who thrives in slow, positional fights. That style plays directly into Mesquita’s strengths, giving her repeated probabilities to attack arms, necks and back takes in prolonged grappling exchanges.
On the feet, Mesquita has shown regular improvement in her boxing and in her comfort under fire. She now not needs the proper entry to tug opponents into her world; she will be able to strike her way into clinches and create reactive shots.
Rendon’s lack of ending threat is one other key factor. If she will be able to’t seriously hurt Mesquita or force her to back off, Mesquita will feel emboldened to take more risks hunting submissions and transitions.
Over three rounds, that combination of technical grappling superiority and rising confidence should tell. Expect Mesquita to systematically dismantle Rendon’s defensive frames, eventually finding the back or isolating a limb for a fight-ending squeeze.
Why Montserrat Rendon Will Win
Montserrat Rendon’s clearest path to an upset lies in her gritty, veteran experience and talent to make fights ugly. While Bia Mesquita is a world-class grappler, Rendon has the clinch strength and defensive framing to disclaim clean takedowns and keep the fight on the feet.
If Rendon can force a grueling, slow-paced kickboxing match, Mesquita’s striking defense and cardio might be severely tested over quarter-hour. Mesquita is used to running through opponents early, but Rendon thrives in deep waters and has never been finished in her skilled profession.
On the skin, Rendon can use her volume and movement to outpoint the Brazilian, darting out and in of range before Mesquita can initiate grappling exchanges. Even when tied up against the cage, Rendon’s cage-wrestling savvy allows her to stall the motion, force referee separations, and frustrate her opponent.
Because the fight drags into the later rounds, Mesquita’s desperation for a takedown could lead on to sloppy, telegraphed entries. Rendon can capitalize on these mistakes by landing counter strikes and racking up crucial points on the judges’ scorecards.
Ultimately, if Rendon avoids the mat and keeps the motion strictly positional and striking-based, she will be able to steal the momentum. By weaponizing her pace and sturdiness, the Mexican standout has a really realistic likelihood of grinding out one other hard-fought decision victory.
Final Bia Mesquita-Montserrat Rendon Prediction & Pick
This matchup looks like a classic specialist vs. grinder clash, with Bia Mesquita’s submission game pitted against Montserrat Rendon’s gritty, decision-heavy style. Early on, Rendon should attempt to turn this right into a clinch-heavy, fence-wrestling fight to dull Mesquita’s explosiveness.
Mesquita, though, only needs a couple of clean grappling sequences to vary every little thing. If she will be able to force scrambles as a substitute of static clinches, her timing on back takes, trips, and reactive shots should begin to surface and tilt the momentum in her favor.
On the feet, Rendon likely throws more volume and appears more comfortable in prolonged striking exchanges. But every overextension or level change that isn’t arrange properly risks ending up in Mesquita’s world, where positional control quickly turns into submission threats.
The large query is whether or not Rendon can stay protected for quarter-hour without getting caught in a deep choke or joint lock. Given Mesquita’s pedigree and the way quickly she transitions once she finds a dominant position, it’s hard to see Rendon completely shutting down those opportunities.
Rendon has moments with cage pressure and volume striking, but Mesquita eventually turns a scramble right into a dominant position and finds a finish. Mesquita by submission within the mid-to-late rounds.
Final Bia Mesquita-Montserrat Rendon Prediction & Pick: Bia Mesquita (-625), Over 1.5 Rounds (-215)