Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is racing to pass a state budget and stave off early elections he would likely lose, with the war in Iran to date doing little to enhance his standing within the polls.
Within the war’s first days, Netanyahu’s camp saw a likelihood for his right-wing coalition to capitalize on the opening salvo that killed Ayatollah Ali Khamenei by holding elections ahead of an expected October date, a source accustomed to Netanyahu’s political strategy said.
One approach to force snap elections could be to let parliament fail to pass the budget by March 31, which under Israeli law would trigger a vote inside 90 days. As U.S.-Israeli strikes killed a number of top Iranian figures, a few of Netanyahu’s confidants publicly floated the concept of a June vote.
But nearly 4 weeks right into a war that has to date failed to attain a stated objective of toppling Iran’s clerical rulers, Israel’s longest-serving prime minister is trying to stave off early elections, three members of his government told Reuters.
That effort to avoid an early contest has included allocating funds to political allies to secure a majority vote for the budget in parliament, and rushing it through the chamber’s Finance Committee to satisfy next week’s deadline.
Netanyahu’s political spokesperson didn’t reply to a request for comment.
In public remarks since 2023, Netanyahu has consistently rejected calls to bring elections forward at a time of war.
“I hope the federal government fulfills its term … meaning elections in September or October,” Netanyahu told reporters on March 12, saying that he had appealed to allies to be responsible at a time of war and pass the defense-heavy US$225 billion budget.
Stalemate in polls as war drags on
For Netanyahu, the war has helped him pivot attention away from Gaza and toward his joint campaign with the U.S. against Iran, where national consensus is strongest. Surveys have shown wide support amongst Israelis for a war that Netanyahu says is supposed to eliminate an existential threat.
But in the case of votes, election polls are showing an image largely unchanged since October 7, 2023, when the Middle East was plunged into turmoil by Hamas’ surprise attack, leaving Netanyahu’s security credentials in tatters.
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Polls consistently show around 40 per cent of voters sticking with Netanyahu’s coalition of nationalist and non secular parties, 40 per cent backing opposition parties and a swing vote to date not moving to Netanyahu, said Gideon Rahat, a political scientist on the Hebrew University in Jerusalem.
Even when Israelis rally in support of the war’s goals, they’re growing weary because it drags on with no decisive end or diplomatic resolution in sight, after a shorter round of fighting in June, said Rahat.
“You’ve one round, just a few months of quiet, after which one other round,” he said.
A poll published by the Times of Israel on March 19 showed Netanyahu’s Likud party would win 28 of the Knesset’s 120 seats, down from 34 at present. While Likud could be the biggest party, his coalition would fall wanting a majority, securing only 51 seats, the poll said.
On March 3, Israeli Science Minister and Likud party member Gila Gamliel told local radio that the election will probably be held in late June or early July. Senior party members and Netanyahu aides made similar remarks to Israeli media.
Within the weeks since, Netanyahu has acknowledged there was no certainty Iranians will overthrow their rulers. Because the war nears a fifth week, the prospect of a summer election appears distant.
“His strategy is buying time,” said Rahat.
Budget deadline nears as war costs soar
With schools shut and workplaces only partially open, the Iran war is costing the economy five billion shekels (US$1.6 billion) per week, based on Finance Ministry estimates.
Netanyahu’s government has also needed to approve an extra 32 billion shekels for defense costs because the Iran war began.
With defense spending climbing sharply, there’s less money available to satisfy demands from key constituencies whose backing Netanyahu needs in parliament — including ultra-Orthodox Jewish parties, who left his government in 2025.
Those parties had threatened to vote against the budget if laws was not first finalized exempting ultra-Orthodox from mandatory service in Israel’s conscript military, a problem that has plagued Netanyahu’s alliance with them since 2023.
But they seem to have backed down on their threat after Netanyahu’s coalition allocated around five billion shekels for ultra-Orthodox schools this month. Spokespeople for the parties, Shas and UTJ, didn’t reply to requests for comment.
Vladimir Beliak, an opposition member who sits on parliament’s Finance Committee, said that by approving those funds, Netanyahu’s government has opted for “coalition survival over fair distribution of resources.”
Adding to Netanyahu’s political challenges is his long-running corruption trial on charges of fraud, bribery and breach of trust, which he denies.
Netanyahu, with support from U.S. President Donald Trump, has appealed to Israeli President Isaac Herzog for a pardon. A mid-trial pardon could be unprecedented and Israel’s justice system has argued against it.