THE PHILIPPINES faces the best exposure to fertilizer price and provide risks in Southeast Asia because of its heavy reliance on imports and vulnerability to provide disruptions, in accordance with Fitch Solutions unit BMI.
In a report, BMI said the chance of reduced fertilizer application across the region is rising as global prices surge amid the continuing war within the Middle East, with the Philippines particularly in danger because of limited domestic production capability.
“The Philippines is more fundamentally exposed to an prolonged disruption to nitrogenous fertilizer supplies given its high reliance on imports,” the think tank said.
BMI said delays in fertilizer shipments could coincide with key planting windows within the Philippines, posing downside risks to crop yields.
“With roughly 75% of corn plantings occurring between April and May and around 60% of rice plantings happening from March to May, delay in fertilizer arrivals past key application windows could pose significant downside risks to the upcoming crop,” it said.
BMI said global urea prices have already surged following the escalation of tensions in late February. The US Gulf Recent Orleans granular urea spot index had risen by 40.4% to $660 per metric ton as of March 20, reflecting expectations of tighter global supply.
Locally, data from the Department of Agriculture (DA) showed that fertilizer prices have also climbed sharply.
The common price of prilled urea rose by 17.15% to P1,948.01 per bag last week from P1,662.84 at the top of December, while granular urea increased by 18.88% to P1,969.03 from P1,656.28.
Ammonium sulfate prices likewise went up by 14.48% to P937.33 per bag from P818.80 over the identical period.
BMI warned that sustained high prices for nitrogen-based fertilizers could lead on farmers to in the reduction of on usage, weighing on yields for the 2026-2027 crop cycle.
The DA earlier flagged potential declines in agricultural output under a protracted high oil price scenario, which feeds into fertilizer costs.
RICE OUTPUT MAY DROP
At a Senate hearing on Tuesday, the DA said that if crude oil prices reach a 180-day average of $200 per barrel, second-semester rice output could fall by 3.81% to 10.7 million metric tons (MT) from the initial 11.12 million MT projection.
Corn production could also fall by 4.58% to three.26 million MT from 3.42 million MT previously projected, while lowland vegetable output may drop by 9.92% to 737,625 MT from 818,856 MT.
Highland vegetable supply could see a sharper 20% decline to 311,230 MT from a prewar projection of 389,037 MT.
Under the identical scenario, onion supply can also be projected to slip by 14.02% to 359,419 MT from a prewar estimate of 418,025.68 MT.
In an earlier statement, the DA said the federal government is negotiating with China, Russia, and India to make sure regular delivery of petroleum-based inputs should the availability outlook from the Gulf becomes much more uncertain.
Meanwhile, BMI said other Southeast Asian countries reminiscent of Indonesia, Malaysia, and Vietnam are relatively insulated from supply shocks because of strong domestic production of nitrogen-based fertilizers and access to natural gas feedstock.
Nonetheless, BMI said policy decisions, reminiscent of whether to prioritize domestic demand or exports, could still affect availability in these markets.
Thailand, while also reliant on imports, has sufficient urea stockpiles to satisfy demand through August 2026, providing a buffer against near-term disruptions, BMI said. — Vonn Andrei E. Villamiel