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UFC Seattle: Israel Adesanya vs. Joe Pyfer continues on the prelims with a fight between Casey O’Neill and Gabriella Fernandes within the flyweight division on Saturday. Try our UFC odds series for our O’Neill-Fernandes prediction and pick.
Casey O’Neill (10-2) bounced back in a giant way at UFC 305 in August 2024, earning a dominant unanimous decision over Luana Santos to snap a two-fight losing skid. Prior to that rebound, she had dropped back-to-back decisions to Jennifer Maia and Ariane da Silva. Now riding a one-fight win streak, she comes into her fight this weekend against Gabriella Fernandes.
Gabriella Fernandes (11-3) has quietly put together a formidable streak within the UFC women’s flyweight division, winning three straight fights. She submitted Cong Wang via rear-naked choke in November 2024 before following it up with a unanimous decision over Julija Stoliarenko in August 2025, riding serious momentum as she comes into her fight this weekend against Casey O’Neill.
UFC Seattle Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Seattle Odds: Casey O’Neill-Gabriella Fernandes Odds
Casey O’Neill: -108
Gabriella Fernandes: -112
Over 2.5 rounds: -260
Under 2.5 rounds: +195
Why Casey O’Neill Will Win
Casey O’Neill is one of the technically refined grapplers within the UFC women’s flyweight division, and her submission arsenal gives her a ending threat that Fernandes must respect in any respect times. Her dominant showing over Luana Santos at UFC 305 proved she has recaptured the shape that made her one in all the division’s most enjoyable prospects.
O’Neill’s pressure-based grappling style is tailor-made to disrupt Fernandes’ rhythm, especially against an opponent who has relied heavily on submission finishes to construct her recent win streak. If O’Neill can get the fight to the mat on her terms, she holds a transparent and significant grappling edge.
At 10-2, O’Neill has faced stiffer competition than Fernandes and has experience navigating adversity after her two-fight losing skid. That sort of mental toughness and experience in high-pressure situations could possibly be the difference within the championship rounds if the fight goes the gap.
O’Neill also carries superior striking credentials, giving her multiple paths to victory that Fernandes simply cannot cover concurrently. A fighter who can hurt you standing and submit you on the bottom is an incredibly difficult puzzle to unravel.
Why Gabriella Fernandes Will Win
Gabriella Fernandes enters this fight on a three-fight winning streak with serious momentum, and momentum is one of the underrated aspects in MMA. Her submission wins and decision victories show she is a well-rounded fighter able to winning in multiple ways.
Fernandes’ grappling has been razor sharp recently, and if she will impose her ground game on O’Neill, she has the submission skills to complete the fight at any moment. O’Neill has been submitted before at this level, and Fernandes is dangerous enough to make that occur again.
O’Neill’s two-fight losing skid to Maia and da Silva raised real questions on how she handles adversity, and Fernandes is the sort of relentless pressure fighter who can reopen those mental wounds. A fighter still rebuilding confidence can crumble when things get difficult within the later rounds.
Fernandes also advantages from fighting on an upward trajectory, while O’Neill continues to be proving she has fully returned to her best form. Fighters trending upward almost all the time carry an intangible edge that shows up when the fight gets deep and grueling.
Fernandes has the grappling tools and the momentum to drag off a big upset Saturday night. Her three-fight win streak isn’t any accident, and O’Neill may not have the answers to stop her suffocating submission-heavy game plan in Seattle.
Final Casey O’Neill-Gabriella Fernandes Prediction & Pick
This women’s flyweight matchup is an enchanting stylistic clash between two submission-minded grapplers who each carry real ending ability. The important thing query is whether or not O’Neill’s superior experience and striking can keep Fernandes from imposing her red-hot ground game.
Expect Fernandes to push the pace early, using her three-fight momentum to pressure O’Neill and drag the fight into deep waters. O’Neill, nonetheless, has the footwork and striking to maintain things standing long enough to dictate where the fight ultimately goes.
The center rounds shall be telling, if O’Neill has successfully avoided Fernandes’ submission attempts and landed clean on the feet, her conditioning and grappling pedigree should take over. Fernandes thrives when she will chain grappling sequences together, but O’Neill’s awareness on the mat makes that a difficult task.
O’Neill’s UFC 305 performance against Santos showed a fighter who has rediscovered her confidence and technical sharpness. That version of O’Neill is simply too polished and too experienced for Fernandes to handle over three full rounds.
Her superior striking and elite grappling IQ give her the sting, as she shuts down Fernandes’ submission threats and controls the pace of the fight from start to complete in Seattle.
Final Casey O’Neill-Gabriella Fernandes Prediction & Pick: Casey O’Neill (-108), Over 2.5 Rounds (-260)
UFC Seattle: Israel Adesanya vs. Joe Pyfer continues on the prelims with a fight between Casey O’Neill and Gabriella Fernandes within the flyweight division on Saturday. Try our UFC odds series for our O’Neill-Fernandes prediction and pick. Casey O’Neill (10-2) bounced back in a giant way at UFC 305 in August 2024, earning a dominant unanimous decision over Luana Santos to snap a two-fight losing skid.