Alexia Thainara vs. Bruna Brasil prediction, odds, pick for UFC Seattle

The UFC is back in motion as we’re set for an additional Fight Night card from Seattle, Washington opening with this Women’s Strawweight (115) bout. Fellow Brazilians face off as No. 13 Alexa Thainara takes on Bruna Brasil in a rematch seven years within the making. Check our UFC odds series for the Thainara-Brasil prediction and pick.

Alexa Thainara (13-1) makes her third UFC appearance following back-to-back victories over Molly McCann and Loma Lookboonmee. After earning a Contender Series bid, she’s made a fast rise to the top-15 and hopes to maintain her momentum rolling as the cardboard’s second-longest favorite. Thainara stands 5-foot-4 with a 67-inch reach.

Bruna Brasil (11-6-1) is 3-4 contained in the UFC since 2023, alternating wins and losses consistently through all seven of her promotional bouts. She fell short via unanimous decision in her most up-to-date outing, so she’s on pace for a win if her trends proceed on Saturday. Brasil stands 5-foot-6 with a 65.5-inch reach.

UFC Seattle Odds, courtesy of DraftKings. 

UFC Seattle Odds: Alexa Thainara-Bruna Brasil Odds

Alexia Thainara: -700

Bruna Brasil: +500

Over 2.5 rounds: -200

Under 2.5 rounds: +154

Why Alexia Thainara Will Win

• Last Fight: (W) Loma Lookboonmee – U DEC
• Last 5: 5-0
• Finishes: 8 SUB

Alexia Thainara looked like a whole prospect once more with a dominant striking performance over Loma Lookboonmee in her last fight. Facing a dangerous opponent, Thainara led the striking totals 110-67 while landing five of her 11 takedown attempts. She also did great work in landing strikes to the body and systematically breaking her opponent down, a terrific sign given her concerted efforts to enhance the stand-up aspect of her game.

During this fight, her continued striking evolution will definitely come in useful against a seasoned kickboxer like Bruna Brasil. Brasil is way more defensive and technical in her striking than Thainara’s previous two opponents, so she’ll should be all of the more cautious when eagerly closing the gap.

Still, Thainara can have a stern advantage on the bottom because of her Brazilian Jiu Jitsu background. She’s yet to notch a finish on the feet, but her eight profession submissions in only 14 pro bouts speak for themselves as she could also be seeking to get back to where she’s most comfortable. Five of those submissions have come by rear naked choke, but she’s also dangerous from her closed guard with the opposite three wins by armbar.

Why Bruna Brasil Will Win

• Last Fight: (L) Ketlen Souza – U DEC
• Last 5: 3-2
• Finishes: 3 KO/TKO, 2 SUB

While Bruna Brasil’s last fight was ruled a unanimous decision for her opponent Ketlen Souza, Brasil actually led the razor-thin striking margin 65-64 while each fighters landed a single takedown. There is no denying that Souza’s punches can have landed harder and created barely more damage, but Brasil was firmly contending throughout each minute of the three-round fight. This time around, she can have to bypass the judges’ scorecards and discover a definitive result with a finish on the feet.

While Brasil hasn’t been in a position to discover a winning streak throughout her UFC tenure, she’s been wildly consistent in responding to every of her promotional losses with a win. She’s been streaky in putting together strong performances and with a loss in her last outing, she’s due for a a lot better showing this time around because the underdog with a chip on her shoulder.

Bruna Brasil may also fight with the boldness knowing she beat Thainara back in 2019 when the 2 faced off on the Brazilian regional MMA circuit. Brasil was in a position to catch Thainara in a guillotine choke and while they’re each completely different fighters after seven years of experience, their first meeting will definitely be on the front of her focus knowing she’s beaten this look before.

Final Alexia Thainara-Bruna Brasil Prediction & Pick

This ought to be an exciting rematch seven years within the making and each fighters should are available in looking like completely different, more evolved versions of themselves. Alexia Thainara has been on a blistering run since her Contender Series contract and comes into this bout searching for redemption, suffering the one loss on her record to Brasil back in 2019.

Thainara comes into this fight the largest betting favorite at UFC Seattle, nevertheless it’s much more intriguing that Bruna Brasil is ideal (4-0) throughout her entire pro profession when fighting following a loss. She also has the added confidence of winning this matchup on this past and fighters that win the primary meeting before a rematch have historically performed at the next rate.

While Alexia Thainara is the clear betting pick and could be the smart pick, there’s way more value in taking a shot on Bruna Brasil given the present trends heading into this fight. We could see an in depth decision by the top of this one, but we’ll side with the unlikely upset.

Final Alexia Thainara-Bruna Brasil Prediction & Pick: Bruna Brasil (+500); OVER 2.5 Rounds (-200)