Renato Moicano vs. Chris Duncan prediction, odds, pick for UFC Vegas 115

UFC Vegas 115 has reached its apex as we bring you a prediction and pick for the headlining bout within the Lightweight (155) Division. No. 10-ranked Renato Moicano of Brazill will welcome Scotland’s Chris Duncan in a can’t-miss bout that is guaranteed to be a banger. Check our UFC odds series for the Moicano-Duncan prediction and pick.

Renato Moicano (20-7-1) has gone 12-7 contained in the UFC since 2014, most recently dropping to Beneil Dariush via unanimous decision his last outing. Two fights faraway from his title shot against Islam Makhachev, he’ll hope to proceed rising up the rankings and fighting for the belt once more. Moicano stands 5-foot-11 with a 72-inch reach.

Chris Duncan (15-2) is 6-1 since debuting in 2023. He’s notched four-straight victories that include two fight bonuses and a most up-to-date submission finish over Terrance McKinney at UFC 323. Now, he’ll look to interrupt through into the rankings with a win as the favourite here. Duncan stands 5-foot-10 with a 71.5-inch reach.

UFC Vegas 115 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings. 

UFC Vegas 115 Odds: Renato Moicano-Chris Duncan Odds

Renato Moicano: +145

Chris Duncan: -175

Over 2.5 rounds: +110

Under 2.5 rounds: -140

Why Renato Moicano Will Win

• Last Fight: (L) Beneil Dariush – U DEC
• Last 5: 3-2
• Finishes: 2 KO/TKO, 10 SUB

Following his late-notice title shot against Islam Makhchev, Renato Moicano had just just a few months to until getting back against Beneil Dariush who had his back against the wall. Moicano couldn’t get anything going with just 39 strikes landed, nevertheless it was much more alarming to see him give up on five of 5 takedowns from Dariush. Against one other capable grappling, Moicano cannot afford to spend the fight in defensive positions because it doesn’t favor his exciting fighting style on the feet.

This time around, Moicano won’t have the opportunity to waste any time in allowing Chris Duncan to seek out offense against him. He’s greater than able to defending himself on the bottom, but consistently taking ground strikes from a brawler like Chris Duncan won’t look good within the optics of the fight. Moicano should look to realize Duncan’s respect on the feet in hopes of forcing desperation takedowns from his opponent, capitalizing on submission attempts once his opponent is hurt.

It’s somewhat surprising to see Moicano the underdog on this fight as he’s relish within the role up to now. He’s got experience on his side and more ways to win the fight, nevertheless it’ll take a gritty performance where he’s fighting through submission attempts and shots on the feet.

Why Chris Duncan Will Win

• Last Fight: (W) Terrance McKinney – SUB (anaconda choke, R1)
• Last 5: 4-1
• Finishes: 7 KO/TKO, 4 SUB

Chris Duncan comes into his first ranked bout with all of the momentum behind him, notching four-straight wins since falling to Manuel Torres in 2024. He’s finished three of those bouts by choke (guillotine, anaconda) and is incredibly opportunistic in chasing the neck even from striking position. All of it stems from his power and skill to harm opponents along with his straight jab, so be looking out for submission attempts any time Moicano is visibly hurt or shooting for a takedown.

On the bottom, Duncan uses leverage and power for tremendous squeeze through his submission attempts. Typically, he’s been capable of avoid putting himself in compromising spots on the bottom and favors exploiting opponents who make mistakes once they’re drained or hurt. Expect his chin to even be on display as he hasn’t been knocked out since his Contender Series audition in 2021

Ultimately, if Chris Duncan keeps his arm guard high while stepping through his jab into his hooks and uppercuts, he should have the opportunity to harm Moicano and force this fight to the bottom. From there, look ahead to Duncan to be dangerous in chasing submissions, especially the standing chokes or arm triangle from mount.

Final Renato Moicano-Chris Duncan Prediction & Pick

This fight has all of the makings of a classic because it’s definitely expected to finish inside the space. Each fighters are touted as dangerous finishers each on the feet and on the bottom with nine knockouts and 14 submissions between the 2 of them.

Moicano definitely has the sting in experience and has face the upper level of competition, but there is no denying that his chin and sturdiness has taken a beaten over the previous couple of years. Still, he’s a live underdog in any situation and might be seeking to take Duncan into deep waters as he’s never truly out of a fight.

Duncan, nonetheless, has all of the momentum on his side and is the more devastating puncher on the feet. He’s greater than more likely to hurt or drop Moicano sooner or later and during the last 4 fights, he’s fallen right into a groove of definitively ending fights along with his grappling.

Nevertheless, there’s value available with Moicano in a five-round fight and his toughness should have the opportunity to hold him over the hump in what ought to be an all-out war.

Final Renato Moicano-Chris Duncan Prediction & Pick: Renato Moicano (+145); OVER 2.5 Rounds (+110)