The US and Iran each claimed victory after reaching a fragile ceasefire, at the same time as more drones and missiles hit Iran and Gulf Arab countries yesterday.
The US president said he would suspend his threats to finish an ‘entire civilisation’ if Iran agreed to reopen the critical Strait of Hormuz waterway, and a tentative ceasefire was then reached.
Yet, the agreement is already hitting roadblocks. Iran appears to have closed the Strait of Hormuz, after US leaders claimed it had been reopened as a part of the ceasefire.
Key issues for each nations remain unresolved, including the scope of the truce, Iran’s rights to nuclear enrichment and ballistic missiles, in addition to access to the Strait of Hormuz.
Dr Katayoun Shahandeh, of SOAS, University of London, told Metro the ceasefire is more fragile than it’s secure.
‘It might hold within the very short term because all sides have reasons to pause, however it just isn’t yet a stable settlement,’ she said.
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Why did Israel attack Lebanon, and is it a breach of the ceasefire?
The elephant within the room is the continued Israeli strikes into Lebanon.
Israel has intensified attacks in Lebanon, killing no less than 182 people in the best single-day death toll within the Israel-Hezbollah war, in line with Lebanon’s health ministry.
‘There appear to be conflicting messages over whether Lebanon is roofed, which is strictly the form of ambiguity that may unravel a deal fast. There may be also a growing divergence between U.S. and Israeli objectives,’ Dr Shahandeh said.
Washington has declared the ceasefire as a ‘victory’, Dr Shahandeh said, but Israel’s current posture points towards a continued military campaign, somewhat than a diplomatic resolution.
‘There may be an actual fear that this just isn’t peace a lot as a pause, because it is a likelihood for Washington and its allies to regroup and, if talks fail, strike harder. That might not be the stated intention, however it is one plausible reading of a ceasefire whose terms remain contested and whose basic points of agreement still seem very far apart,’ she said.
‘Already, it doesn’t look as if all sides are fully adhering to it.’
What happens if the ceasefire conditions are broken?
If the ceasefire is broken, Trump would have just a few options – but would likely begin with escalation in strikes and potentially putting US troops on the bottom in Iran.
‘Trump has said U.S. military ships and aircraft will remain around Iran and that if Tehran doesn’t comply, the “shootin’ starts” again,’ Dr Shahandeh explained.
‘The almost definitely U.S. response could be renewed strikes, more coercive pressure over Hormuz, and an try and force Iran into harsher terms from a position of overwhelming military superiority. But that might deepen the bind he’s already in: walking away risks looking weak, while escalating further risks a more unpopular and expensive war.’
Dr Bamo Nouri, senior lecturer in International Relations on the University of West London, told Metro: ‘If it breaks, Trump has already signalled a return to coercive escalation – maintaining US forces within the region, increasing military pressure, and potentially authorising further strikes to revive deterrence.
Iran’s options if the ceasefire is broken are different. Despite sustaining heavy damage, the country has retained power over the Strait of Hormuz and will easily resume missile and drone attacks and pressure on global shipping.
As for Israel, the choice is to proceed its air strikes in each Iran and Lebanon if it believes the ceasefire to be broken.
‘Israel, for its part, is prone to be the least patient actor, having already signalled readiness to resume high-intensity operations if it judges the ceasefire to be constraining its strategic objectives,’ Dr Nouri said.
Despite agreeing to suspend its bombing campaign in Iran, the US and Israel differ on their positions as as to if the ceasefire stretches to Lebanon, where Israel argues it’s striking Iranian-backed Hezbollah groups.
‘Israel agreed to suspend its bombing campaign on Iran, but that U.S. and Israeli positions differ sharply from Iran’s (and Pakistan who brokered the deal) over whether Lebanon is an element of the ceasefire framework.
‘Meaning Israel could turn into probably the most immediate trigger for collapse if it continues treating other theatres as separate while Iran treats them as linked,’ Dr Shahandeh said.
What happens next?
It’s hard to say. Iran, Israel and america are usually not operating from a shared understanding of what’s been agreed within the ceasefire agreement.
Dr Nouri explained: ‘The US frames it around limiting Iran’s nuclear activity and securing maritime stability within the Strait of Hormuz, while Iran insists on its enrichment rights and links the deal to broader regional conditions, including Israeli operations in Lebanon.’
To ensure that the ceasefire to carry, the three countries must quickly make clear terms to stop any misunderstandings.
‘With out a quickly accepted framework, this ceasefire becomes a short-lived bargaining interval somewhat than a stable resolution, with all sides already preparing for renewed escalation,’ Dr Nouri said.
Dr Shahandeh believes three things must occur for the ceasefire to carry.
‘The parties need clear written terms, not only public declarations: what is roofed geographically, what counts as a violation, and who verifies compliance,’ she said.
‘Second, there needs to be a practical de-escalation mechanism around Hormuz, because Reuters reports there remains to be little sign that the Strait is working normally, and Iran remains to be asserting control there.
‘Third, the ceasefire must turn into a political process, not only a pause in bombing. The ceasefire can hold, but only as a bridge to a more detailed agreement. If it stays vague, it’s unlikely to last.’
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