A tentative ceasefire within the Iran war staggered Thursday under the load of Israel’s intense bombardment of Beirut, Tehran’s continued chokehold on the Strait of Hormuz, and uncertainty over whether negotiators can find common ground on a range of other differences.
Hours after the ceasefire was announced — amid disagreement over whether it included a pause in fighting between Israel and Hezbollah — Israel pounded Beirut with airstrikes, leading to the deadliest day within the country because the war began on Feb. 28.
Iran and the U.S. — which each declared victory within the wake of the ceasefire announcement — appeared to attempt to pressure one another. Semiofficial news agencies in Iran suggested forces have mined the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway for the world’s oil whose closure has proved Tehran’s biggest strategic advantage within the conflict. President Donald Trump, meanwhile, warned that U.S. forces would hit Iran even harder than before if it didn’t fulfill the agreement.
But what that agreement is stays in deep dispute. Beyond whether Lebanon is included, there are questions over what’s going to occur to Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium, how and when normal traffic will resume through the strait, and what happens to Iran’s ability to launch missile attacks in the longer term. The U.S. and Iran are on account of meet in Pakistan for talks this weekend.
Israeli strikes on Lebanon threaten the ceasefire
Lebanon’s health ministry said a minimum of 203 people were killed and greater than 1,000 wounded in widespread Israeli strikes in central Beirut and other areas of Lebanon on Wednesday, when Israel intensified its attacks on the Iran-backed Hezbollah militant group, which joined the war in support of Tehran.
The death toll was the very best for a single day in Lebanon during greater than five weeks of renewed war between Israel and Hezbollah.
Iran said Israel was violating the ceasefire agreement, which it has said included a stop to the fighting in Lebanon. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Trump have said it doesn’t.
Iran’s parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf warned Thursday that continued Israeli attacks on Hezbollah in Lebanon would bring “explicit costs and STRONG responses” in a message on X.
“Ceasefire violations carry explicit and STRONG responses,” he wrote. “Extinguish the fireplace immediately.”
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Netanyahu said in a social media post that Israel will proceed striking Hezbollah “with force, precision and determination.”
Qalibaf has been discussed as a possible negotiator who could meet U.S. Vice President JD Vance this weekend in Islamabad, the capital of Pakistan.
Israel said Thursday it killed Ali Yusuf Harshi, an aide to Hezbollah leader Naim Kassem. Hezbollah didn’t immediately reply to a request for comment.
A Recent York-based think tank warned the ceasefire “ hovers on the snapping point.”
“Even when Lebanon was formally outside the deal, the dimensions of Israel’s strikes was prone to be viewed as escalatory,” the Soufan Center wrote in an evaluation. “Israel’s strikes might be understood each as an effort to drive a wedge between Iran and its proxies and as a response to being allegedly sidelined in the unique ceasefire discussions.”
Lebanon’s state-run National News Agency reported Thursday that an Israeli strike overnight had killed a minimum of seven people in southern Lebanon. The Israeli military didn’t immediately acknowledge the strike.
Oil prices remain high amid uncertainty over the Strait of Hormuz
Semiofficial news agencies in Iran published a chart Thursday suggesting the country’s paramilitary Revolutionary Guard put sea mines into the strait throughout the war — a message that could be intended to pressure the U.S.
The chart, released by the ISNA news agency and Tasnim, showed a big circle marked “danger zone” in Farsi over the route ships take through the strait, through which 20% of all traded oil and natural gas once passed.
Only a trickle of ships have passed through the strait because the war began after several were attacked and Iran threatened to hit any that it deemed connected to the U.S. or Israel. Ships appeared to proceed to avoid the strait even after the ceasefire: Data from Kpler showed only 4 vessels with their trackers on passed through.
The chart suggested ships travel through waters closer to Iran’s mainland near Larak Island, a route that some ships were observed taking throughout the war. It was dated from Feb. 28 until April 9, and it was unclear if the Guard had cleared any mines since then.
Iran’s deputy foreign minister, Saeed Khatibzadeh, told the BBC on Thursday that his country will allow ships to go through the strait in accordance with “international norms and international law” once america ends its “aggression” within the Middle East and Israel stops attacking Lebanon.
The pinnacle of the United Arab Emirates’ major oil company, Sultan al-Jaber, said some 230 ships loaded with oil were waiting to get through the strait and should be allowed “to navigate this corridor without condition.”
The strait’s de facto closure has caused oil prices to skyrocket — raising, in turn, the associated fee of gasoline, food and other basics far beyond the Middle East. Oil prices fell on news of the ceasefire Wednesday, but began to climb as uncertainty over the deal grew.
The spot price of Brent crude, the international standard, was around $98 Thursday — up about 35 per cent because the war began.
Trump warned that U.S. warships and troops will remain around Iran “until such time because the REAL AGREEMENT reached is fully complied with.”’
Peace talks expected in Pakistan
The White House said that Vice President JD Vance would lead the U.S. delegation for talks in Islamabad geared toward ending the war, that are set to start out Saturday.
There seem like many points of disagreement to handle, including whether Iran might be allowed to formalize a system of charging ships to make use of the strait that it has instituted. That might upend a long time of precedent treating it as a global waterway that was free to transit.
The fate of Iran’s missile and nuclear programs — the elimination of which were major objectives for the U.S. and Israel in going to war — also remained unclear. The U.S. insists Iran mustn’t ever find a way to construct nuclear weapons and desires to remove Tehran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium, which could possibly be used to construct them, should it decide to pursue the bomb. Iran insists its program is peaceful.
Trump said Wednesday that the U.S. would work with Iran to remove the buried uranium, though Iran didn’t confirm that. In a single version of the deal that Iran published, it said it could be allowed to proceed enrichment.
The chief of Iran’s nuclear agency said protecting Tehran’s right to counterpoint uranium is “needed” for any ceasefire talks with america.
Mohammad Eslami, who leads the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, made the remarks Thursday to journalists, including one from The Associated Press, during commemorations for the late Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in Tehran.