Mateusz Gamrot vs. Esteban Ribovics prediction, odds, pick for UFC 327

We’re back with one other betting prediction and pick for the UFC 327 Prelims as we take a have a look at this next tilt within the Lightweight (155) Division. Poland’s No. 8-ranked Mateusz Gamrot will tackle Argentina’s Esteban Ribovics in a Prelim that is sure to bring fireworks. Check our UFC odds series for the Gamrot-Ribovics prediction and pick.

Mateusz Gamrot (25-4) has gone 8-4 contained in the UFC since 2020. While he’s gone 1-2 over his last three fights, each losses got here against formidable opponents in Dan Hooker and Charles Oliveira as he looks to get back on target and fighting ranked opponents. Gamrot stands 5-foot-10 with a 70.5-inch reach.

Esteban Ribovics (15-2) has gone 4-2 since joining the UFC in 2023, most recently beating Elves Brener via unanimous decision in a ‘Fight of the Night’ effort. He’s gone 4-1 over this latest streak and appears to beat the primary ranked opponent of his UFC tenure. Ribovics stands 5-foot-10 with a 69-inch reach.

UFC 327 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings. 

UFC 327 Odds: Mateusz Gamrot-Esteban Ribovics Odds

Mateusz Gamrot: -192

Esteban Ribovics: +160

Over 2.5 rounds: -260

Under 2.5 rounds: +195

Why Mateusz Gamrot Will Win

• Last Fight: (L) Charles Oliveira – SUB (rear naked choke, R2)
• Last 5: 3-2
• Finishes: 8 KO/TKO, 5 SUB

Mateusz Gamrot has been facing a few of the division’s best competitors in Charles Oliveira, Dan Hooker, and Rafael Fiziev throughout his last five fights. He’s managed a 3-2 record during that stretch and finds himself still throughout the top-10 rankings, but clearly his last fight against Charles Oliveira was a little bit of a mismatch. This time around, Gamrot needs to be getting back to his old self as he’ll welcome a much younger and inexperienced prospect to fight.

Gamrot has only a few weaknesses each in his striking and grappling, offering sound technique and ending capabilities where available. He’s capable of beat opponents on the feet over the course of three rounds or dominate them on the bottom with equal proficiency. Wherever his opponent is willing to take the fight, Gamrot will probably be greater than willing to satisfy him their and beat him at his own game.

Gamrot may have to be very defensively-minded against a chaotic striker in Ribovics, typically needing a couple of combination to sit down his opponent down. Ribovics has a repute as a durable fighter and while Gamrot is hard in his own right, he’s still 35 years old and doesn’t need to risk one other three-round brawl where he might be knocked out. Gamrot will see his best success by taking Ribovics down and keeping him from unloading his offense, scoring points along with his submission attempts and ground-and-pound.

Why Esteban Ribovics Will Win

• Last Fight: (W) Elves Brener – U DEC
• Last 5: 4-1
• Finishes: 7 KO/TKO, 5 SUB

Esteban Ribovics has been involved in three-straight ‘Fight of the Night’ performances over his last octagon appearances, emerging victorious in two of those bouts via decision. While he’s managed only one knockout up thus far, he hasn’t come near being finished inside the space and is at all times willing to tug out a 3 round war. Against a veteran like Gamrot, Ribovics will probably be seeking to instill a few of his chaotic striking in hopes of catching his ranked opponent on the chin.

While Ribovics’ striking may look chaotic and sporadic, he’s extremely composed within the pocket and does a terrific job of rolling with punches within the flow of the exchanges. He’s great countering opponents and while he doesn’t necessarily have knockout power in his hands, he becomes very dangerous when landing mixtures in succession and moving forward. Search for Ribovics to have Gamrot on his back foot on plenty of occasions.

Esteban Ribovics has shown a propensity to take damage and if he’s taken an excessive amount of, his output will decelerate towards the top of the fight. He’s been solid in getting back to his feet after being taken down, however it’ll be interesting to see how he works against Gamrot’s average 5.15 takedowns per fight.

Final Mateusz Gamrot-Esteban Ribovics Prediction & Pick

This needs to be an in depth bout between a young, talented brawler in Esteban Ribovics and a tested veteran in Mateusz Gamrot. Gamrot needs to be motivated to get back a win on his record and after facing a few of the most effective fighters within the division, he must have a much easier time navigating things on the feet against Ribovics.

While Esteban Ribovics will probably be threatening on the feet, I expect Mateusz Gamrot to eventually take this fight to the bottom and dominate with ground control on the mat. He needs to be way more of a submission threat than what Ribovics is used to and although Ribovics may defend early on, it’ll keep him in a foul spot on the bottom for many of this fight.

Final Mateusz Gamrot-Esteban Ribovics Prediction & Pick: Mateusz Gamrot (-192); OVER 2.5 Rounds (-260)