The US and Iran each claimed victory after reaching a fragile ceasefire, at the same time as more drones and missiles hit Iran and Gulf Arab countries yesterday.<\/p>\n
The\u00a0US\u00a0president said he would suspend his threats to finish an \u2018entire civilisation\u2019 if Iran agreed to reopen the critical\u00a0Strait of Hormuz\u00a0waterway, and a tentative ceasefire was then reached.<\/p>\n
Yet, the agreement is already hitting roadblocks. Iran appears to have closed the Strait of Hormuz, after US leaders claimed it had been reopened as a part of the ceasefire.<\/p>\n
Key issues for each nations remain unresolved, including the scope of the truce, Iran\u2019s rights to nuclear enrichment and ballistic missiles, in addition to access to the Strait of Hormuz.<\/p>\n
Dr Katayoun Shahandeh, of SOAS, University of London, told Metro<\/strong> the ceasefire is more fragile than it’s secure.<\/p>\n \u2018It might hold within the very short term because all sides have reasons to pause, however it just isn’t yet a stable settlement,\u2019 she said.<\/p>\n Start your day informed with Metro’s News Updates<\/strong> newsletter or get Breaking News <\/strong>alerts the moment it happens. <\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n The elephant within the room is the continued Israeli strikes into Lebanon.<\/p>\n Israel has intensified attacks in Lebanon, killing no less than 182 people in the best single-day death toll within the Israel-Hezbollah war, in line with Lebanon\u2019s health ministry. <\/p>\n \u2018There appear to be conflicting messages over whether Lebanon is roofed, which is strictly the form of ambiguity that may unravel a deal fast. There may be also a growing divergence between U.S. and Israeli objectives,\u2019 Dr Shahandeh said.<\/p>\n Washington has declared the ceasefire as a \u2018victory\u2019, Dr Shahandeh said, but Israel\u2019s current posture points towards a continued military campaign, somewhat than a diplomatic resolution.<\/p>\n \u2018There may be an actual fear that this just isn’t peace a lot as a pause, because it is a likelihood for Washington and its allies to regroup and, if talks fail, strike harder. That might not be the stated intention, however it is one plausible reading of a ceasefire whose terms remain contested and whose basic points of agreement still seem very far apart,\u2019 she said.<\/p>\n \u2018Already, it doesn’t look as if all sides are fully adhering to it.\u2019<\/p>\n If the ceasefire is broken, Trump would have just a few options \u2013 but would likely begin with escalation in strikes and potentially putting US troops on the bottom in Iran.<\/p>\n \u2018Trump has said U.S. military ships and aircraft will remain around Iran and that if Tehran doesn’t comply, the \u201cshootin\u2019 starts\u201d again,\u2019 Dr Shahandeh explained.<\/p>\n \u2018The almost definitely U.S. response could be renewed strikes, more coercive pressure over Hormuz, and an try and force Iran into harsher terms from a position of overwhelming military superiority. But that might deepen the bind he’s already in: walking away risks looking weak, while escalating further risks a more unpopular and expensive war.\u2019<\/p>\n Dr Bamo Nouri, senior lecturer in International Relations on the University of West London, told\u00a0Metro<\/strong>: \u2018If it breaks, Trump has already signalled a return to coercive escalation \u2013 maintaining US forces within the region, increasing military pressure, and potentially authorising further strikes to revive deterrence. <\/p>\n Iran\u2019s options if the ceasefire is broken are different.<\/strong> Despite sustaining heavy damage, the country has retained power over the Strait of Hormuz and will easily resume missile and drone attacks and pressure on global shipping.<\/p>\n As for Israel,<\/strong> the choice is to proceed its air strikes in each Iran and Lebanon if it believes the ceasefire to be broken.<\/p>\n \u2018Israel, for its part, is prone to be the least patient actor, having already signalled readiness to resume high-intensity operations if it judges the ceasefire to be constraining its strategic objectives,\u2019 Dr Nouri said. <\/p>\n Despite agreeing to suspend its bombing campaign in Iran, the US and Israel differ on their positions as as to if the ceasefire stretches to Lebanon, where Israel argues it’s striking Iranian-backed Hezbollah groups.<\/p>\n \u2018Israel agreed to suspend its bombing campaign on Iran, but that U.S. and Israeli positions differ sharply from Iran\u2019s (and Pakistan who brokered the deal) over whether Lebanon is an element of the ceasefire framework. <\/p>\n \u2018Meaning Israel could turn into probably the most immediate trigger for collapse if it continues treating other theatres as separate while Iran treats them as linked,\u2019 Dr Shahandeh said.<\/p>\n It\u2019s hard to say. Iran, Israel and america are usually not operating from a shared understanding of what\u2019s been agreed within the ceasefire agreement.<\/p>\n Dr Nouri explained: \u2018The US frames it around limiting Iran\u2019s nuclear activity and securing maritime stability within the Strait of Hormuz, while Iran insists on its enrichment rights and links the deal to broader regional conditions, including Israeli operations in Lebanon.\u2019<\/p>\n To ensure that the ceasefire to carry, the three countries must quickly make clear terms to stop any misunderstandings.<\/p>\n \u2018With out a quickly accepted framework, this ceasefire becomes a short-lived bargaining interval somewhat than a stable resolution, with all sides already preparing for renewed escalation,\u2019 Dr Nouri said.<\/p>\n Dr Shahandeh believes three things must occur for the ceasefire to carry.<\/p>\n \u2018The parties need clear written terms, not only public declarations: what is roofed geographically, what counts as a violation, and who verifies compliance,\u2019 she said.<\/p>\n \u2018Second, there needs to be a practical de-escalation mechanism around Hormuz, because Reuters reports there remains to be little sign that the Strait is working normally, and Iran remains to be asserting control there. <\/p>\n \u2018Third, the ceasefire must turn into a political process, not only a pause in bombing. The ceasefire can hold, but only as a bridge to a more detailed agreement. If it stays vague, it’s unlikely to last.\u2019<\/p>\n\n\t\t\t\tJoin for all of the most recent stories\t\t\t<\/h2>\n
Why did Israel attack Lebanon, and is it a breach of the ceasefire?<\/h2>\n
![\"A](\"https:\/\/metro.co.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/SEI_292504728-cbac.jpg?quality=90&strip=all&w=646\")
\t<\/div>What happens if the ceasefire conditions are broken?<\/h2>\n
![\"OMAN](\"https:\/\/metro.co.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/SEI_292436771-5d24.jpg?quality=90&strip=all&w=646\")
\t<\/div>![\"Smoke](\"https:\/\/metro.co.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/SEI_292445974-c9d8.jpg?quality=90&strip=all&w=646\")
\t<\/div>What happens next?<\/h2>\n
![\"WASHINGTON,](\"https:\/\/metro.co.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/SEI_292508486-a59a.jpg?quality=90&strip=all&w=646\")
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